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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Technology

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 5,472.226,842.9512,038.0117,201.6418,373.3130,716.4530,477.6338,316.4848,171.4860,561.1976,137.52
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,447.13-4,894.18-4,590.49-6,731.08-10,049.29-11,317.81-14,580.08-18,330.08-23,044.57-28,971.63-36,423.14
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 2,025.091,948.777,447.5110,470.568,324.0119,398.6315,897.5619,986.4125,126.9131,589.5539,714.39

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,793.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding 500.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.41
Total Debt 33,145.00
Total Equity 896,570.00
Total Capital 929,715.00
Debt Weighting 3.57
Equity Weighting 96.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Operating Cash Flow 5,472.226,842.9512,038.0117,201.6418,373.3130,716.4530,477.6338,316.4848,171.4860,561.1976,137.52
Capital Expenditure -3,447.13-4,894.18-4,590.49-6,731.08-10,049.29-11,317.81-14,580.08-18,330.08-23,044.57-28,971.63-36,423.14
Free Cash Flow 2,025.091,948.777,447.5110,470.568,324.0119,398.6315,897.5619,986.4125,126.9131,589.5539,714.39
WACC
PV LFCF 12,016.6613,134.5314,356.4015,691.9417,151.72
SUM PV LFCF 62,563.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 76,288.81
Terminal Value 692,275.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 343,884.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 453,955.21
Net Debt -8,097.47
Equity Value 462,052.69
Shares Outstanding 500.00
Equity Value Per Share 513.68

Results Levered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
17.02 (%) 384.27 Sell 402.12 Sell 422.35 Sell 445.47 Sell 472.14 Sell 503.25 Sell 540.00 Sell 584.08 Sell 637.95 Sell
16.52 (%) 372.18 Sell 388.71 Sell 407.36 Sell 428.59 Sell 452.95 Sell 481.21 Sell 514.37 Sell 553.83 Sell 601.59 Sell
16.02 (%) 360.90 Sell 376.22 Sell 393.46 Sell 412.99 Sell 435.31 Sell 461.05 Sell 491.08 Sell 526.56 Sell 569.12 Sell
15.52 (%) 350.35 Sell 364.58 Sell 380.54 Sell 398.55 Sell 419.04 Sell 442.56 Sell 469.85 Sell 501.86 Sell 539.97 Sell
15.02 (%) 340.47 Sell 353.71 Sell 368.51 Sell 385.15 Sell 404.01 Sell 425.56 Sell 450.42 Sell 479.42 Sell 513.68 Sell
14.52 (%) 331.20 Sell 343.54 Sell 357.29 Sell 372.70 Sell 390.09 Sell 409.88 Sell 432.60 Sell 458.95 Sell 489.88 Sell
14.02 (%) 322.51 Sell 334.02 Sell 346.81 Sell 361.10 Sell 377.18 Sell 395.40 Sell 416.22 Sell 440.23 Sell 468.24 Sell
13.52 (%) 314.33 Sell 325.09 Sell 337.01 Sell 350.29 Sell 365.18 Sell 381.98 Sell 401.10 Sell 423.05 Sell 448.51 Sell
13.02 (%) 306.64 Sell 316.70 Sell 327.83 Sell 340.19 Sell 354.00 Sell 369.53 Sell 387.14 Sell 407.25 Sell 430.46 Sell