Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

FibroGen Inc (FGEN)

$ 18.57
-0.24 (-1.28%)

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 102.17137.60180.83179.58125.67212.96256.58176.32200.01226.88257.36291.93331.16
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 25.9222.41-18.577.11-66.51-76.14-78.7181.60-9.43-10.70-12.14-13.77-15.62
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.81-8.12-1.98-1.25-8.50-8.02-5.76-3.99-7.35-8.34-9.46-10.73-12.17
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 19.1114.30-20.555.86-75.01-84.16-84.4777.61-16.78-19.04-21.59-24.50-27.79

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 18.57
Beta 1.684
Diluted Shares Outstanding 89.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.863
Total Debt 38.57
Total Equity 1,668.59
Total Capital 1,707.16
Debt Weighting 2.26
Equity Weighting 97.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 102.17137.60180.83179.58125.67212.96256.58176.32200.01226.88257.36291.93331.16
Operating Cash Flow 25.9222.41-18.577.11-66.51-76.14-78.7181.60-9.43-10.70-12.14-13.77-15.62
Capital Expenditure -6.81-8.12-1.98-1.25-8.50-8.02-5.76-3.99-7.35-8.34-9.46-10.73-12.17
Free Cash Flow 19.1114.30-20.555.86-75.01-84.16-84.4777.61-16.78-19.04-21.59-24.50-27.79
WACC
PV LFCF -14.51-14.24-13.97-13.71-13.45
SUM PV LFCF -69.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) -28.90
Terminal Value -248.69
Present Value of Terminal Value -120.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -190.24
Net Debt -639.82
Equity Value 449.58
Shares Outstanding 89.85
Equity Value Per Share 5.00