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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


Fair Isaac Corproation

Fair Isaac Corproation (FICO)

Technology

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 136.12175.00146.79210.31225.61223.04234.70250.68267.75285.99305.46
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.16-12.62-25.00-21.95-19.86-31.29-28.45-30.39-32.46-34.67-37.03
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 111.96162.38121.79188.36205.75191.75206.24220.29235.29251.31268.43

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 314.48
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.25
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.16
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.82
Total Debt 528.94
Total Equity 9,343.52
Total Capital 9,872.46
Debt Weighting 5.36
Equity Weighting 94.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
Operating Cash Flow 136.12175.00146.79210.31225.61223.04234.70250.68267.75285.99305.46
Capital Expenditure -24.16-12.62-25.00-21.95-19.86-31.29-28.45-30.39-32.46-34.67-37.03
Free Cash Flow 111.96162.38121.79188.36205.75191.75206.24220.29235.29251.31268.43
WACC
PV LFCF 182.06171.67161.86152.62143.90
SUM PV LFCF 1,008.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 266.32
Terminal Value 2,869.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,538.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,500.61
Net Debt 438.90
Equity Value 2,061.71
Shares Outstanding 29.71
Equity Value Per Share 73.46