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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


NVR Inc.

NVR Inc. (NVR)

Consumer Cyclical

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 270.40184.63226.91392.77570.59722.81541.20601.70668.97743.76826.92
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.61-30.63-17.73-21.12-19.14-18.21-31.93-35.50-39.46-43.88-48.78
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 251.79154.00209.19371.64551.45704.60509.27566.21629.51699.89778.13

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,497.8
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.80
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.88
Total Debt 597.68
Total Equity 14,313.00
Total Capital 14,910.68
Debt Weighting 4.01
Equity Weighting 95.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
Operating Cash Flow 270.40184.63226.91392.77570.59722.81541.20601.70668.97743.76826.92
Capital Expenditure -18.61-30.63-17.73-21.12-19.14-18.21-31.93-35.50-39.46-43.88-48.78
Free Cash Flow 251.79154.00209.19371.64551.45704.60509.27566.21629.51699.89778.13
WACC
PV LFCF 472.73487.87503.49519.61536.26
SUM PV LFCF 3,252.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) 887.86
Terminal Value 23,803.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,404.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,976.92
Net Debt -134.23
Equity Value 20,111.15
Shares Outstanding 4.09
Equity Value Per Share 4,481.57

Results Levered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.73 (%) 2,247.63 Sell 2,426.77 Sell 2,652.26 Sell 2,944.77 Sell 3,339.37 Sell 3,900.82 Buy 4,763.31 Buy 6,257.67 Buy 9,479.61 Buy
9.23 (%) 2,146.74 Sell 2,304.88 Sell 2,501.46 Sell 2,752.41 Sell 3,083.93 Sell 3,542.22 Buy 4,217.19 Buy 5,310.11 Buy 7,383.22 Buy
8.73 (%) 2,056.09 Sell 2,196.45 Sell 2,368.97 Sell 2,586.13 Sell 2,867.83 Sell 3,247.85 Sell 3,788.55 Buy 4,619.17 Buy 6,058.30 Buy
8.23 (%) 1,974.28 Sell 2,099.48 Sell 2,251.81 Sell 2,441.15 Sell 2,682.87 Sell 3,002.19 Sell 3,443.63 Sell 4,093.77 Buy 5,146.49 Buy
7.73 (%) 1,900.16 Sell 2,012.33 Sell 2,147.56 Sell 2,313.76 Sell 2,522.97 Sell 2,794.35 Sell 3,160.46 Sell 3,681.36 Buy 4,481.57 Buy
7.23 (%) 1,832.77 Sell 1,933.68 Sell 2,054.31 Sell 2,201.09 Sell 2,383.53 Sell 2,616.44 Sell 2,924.13 Sell 3,349.47 Sell 3,975.92 Buy
6.73 (%) 1,771.29 Sell 1,862.41 Sell 1,970.51 Sell 2,100.83 Sell 2,261.00 Sell 2,462.62 Sell 2,724.15 Sell 3,076.97 Sell 3,578.98 Buy
6.23 (%) 1,715.04 Sell 1,797.60 Sell 1,894.86 Sell 2,011.14 Sell 2,152.61 Sell 2,328.46 Sell 2,552.96 Sell 2,849.53 Sell 3,259.51 Sell
5.73 (%) 1,663.42 Sell 1,738.46 Sell 1,826.30 Sell 1,930.51 Sell 2,056.15 Sell 2,210.56 Sell 2,404.93 Sell 2,657.06 Sell 2,997.19 Sell