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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa Corporation (AA)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 13,147.0011,198.619,317.2511,651.2213,402.4013,686.5313,976.6814,272.9914,575.5714,884.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,291.04589.05745.381,673.111,807.981,393.291,422.831,452.991,483.791,515.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 336.56-191.5027.02921.611,074.87466.71476.60486.71497.03507.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 954.47780.54718.36751.50733.11926.58946.22966.28986.771,007.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 265.57556.57853.461,358.531,112.40988.171,009.121,030.511,052.361,074.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 712.57503.94833.891,042.781,002.50966.27986.751,007.671,029.041,050.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,501.391,172.491,160.001,452.911,818.711,653.331,688.381,724.181,760.731,798.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,739.351,378.551,455.351,897.981,663.241,912.011,952.541,993.942,036.212,079.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -444.37-390.83-404.37-405.46-399.39-483.13-493.38-503.84-514.52-525.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.84
Diluted Shares Outstanding 186.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 76.18
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.76
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.37
Total Debt 1,801.00
Total Equity 3,700.04
Total Capital 5,501.04
Debt Weighting 32.74
Equity Weighting 67.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 13,147.0011,198.619,317.2511,651.2213,402.4013,686.5313,976.6814,272.9914,575.5714,884.58
EBITDA 1,291.04589.05745.381,673.111,807.981,393.291,422.831,452.991,483.791,515.25
EBIT 336.56-191.5027.02921.611,074.87466.71476.60486.71497.03507.56
Tax Rate 1,014.29%-87.20%-85.19%73.44%76.18%198.30%198.30%198.30%198.30%198.30%
EBIAT -3,077.15-358.4850.04244.79256.03-458.79-468.52-478.45-488.60-498.95
Depreciation 954.47780.54718.36751.50733.11926.58946.22966.28986.771,007.69
Accounts Receivable -208.63-329.96-208.8940.2836.23-20.48-20.92-21.36-21.82
Inventories -328.8912.50-292.91-365.80165.37-35.05-35.79-36.55-37.33
Accounts Payable --360.8076.80442.63-234.75248.7740.5341.3942.2743.17
Capital Expenditure --53.5413.541.09-6.0783.7410.2410.4610.6810.91
UFCF -2,122.68545.25541.28938.21422.811,001.90472.94482.97493.21503.66
WACC
PV UFCF 1,001.90432.38403.69376.89351.88
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 702.16
Terminal Value 13,051.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,336.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 688.60
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 186.49
Equity Value Per Share -