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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12291,749.64320,486.98352,054.95386,732.36424,825.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 56,913.0361,435.1383,762.7671,875.1674,248.5083,793.3797,269.33106,850.36117,375.12128,936.57141,636.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50,162.0853,483.8472,497.7961,373.1564,093.4972,877.6584,374.0092,684.84101,814.29111,843.00122,859.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,895.3314,165.5215,560.8317,093.5718,777.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 40,539.8525,078.5541,600.9267,152.4974,179.7366,291.0469,874.0476,756.6384,317.1692,622.40101,745.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,645.9327,217.1730,335.9529,306.4335,668.6249,001.1942,566.2746,759.0551,364.8256,424.2561,982.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,760.372,102.062,360.502,134.914,859.743,957.283,792.754,166.334,576.715,027.525,522.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22,372.1230,196.6235,501.0137,285.3744,241.9355,879.9549,801.6654,707.1360,095.7866,015.2172,517.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9,075.32-9,815.73-11,498.68-12,744.74-12,447.34-13,306.01-15,521.08-17,049.91-18,729.32-20,574.16-22,600.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 205.48
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5,000.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.34
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.87
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.53
Total Debt 93,735.00
Total Equity 1,027,422.40
Total Capital 1,121,157.40
Debt Weighting 8.36
Equity Weighting 91.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12291,749.64320,486.98352,054.95386,732.36424,825.50
EBITDA 56,913.0361,435.1383,762.7671,875.1674,248.5083,793.3797,269.33106,850.36117,375.12128,936.57141,636.82
EBIT 50,162.0853,483.8472,497.7961,373.1564,093.4972,877.6584,374.0092,684.84101,814.29111,843.00122,859.54
Tax Rate 26.15%26.13%26.37%25.56%24.56%18.34%24.52%24.52%24.52%24.52%24.52%
EBIAT 37,042.2339,510.6253,381.3345,687.8548,354.3959,510.3063,687.5769,960.8076,851.9384,421.8592,737.40
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,895.3314,165.5215,560.8317,093.5718,777.29
Accounts Receivable --6,571.24-3,118.781,029.52-6,362.19-13,332.576,434.92-4,192.78-4,605.77-5,059.43-5,557.79
Inventories --341.69-258.44225.60-2,724.83902.46164.53-373.59-410.38-450.81-495.21
Accounts Payable -7,824.505,304.391,784.366,956.5611,638.02-6,078.294,905.465,388.655,919.436,502.50
Capital Expenditure -740.411,682.951,246.06-297.40858.672,215.071,528.831,679.421,844.842,026.55
UFCF 43,793.1849,113.8868,256.4260,475.4056,081.5470,492.6079,319.1485,994.2594,464.68103,769.45113,990.74
WACC
PV UFCF 71,516.6769,908.1869,240.0568,578.3067,922.87
SUM PV UFCF 427,212.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 118,550.37
Terminal Value 1,715,634.91
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,022,283.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,449,495.75
Net Debt 27,443.96
Equity Value 1,422,051.79
Shares Outstanding 5,000.11
Equity Value Per Share 284.40

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.91 (%) 190.59 Sell 201.13 Sell 213.60 Buy 228.58 Buy 246.94 Buy 269.93 Buy 299.57 Buy 339.25 Buy 395.09 Buy
12.41 (%) 184.05 Sell 193.61 Sell 204.85 Sell 218.24 Buy 234.48 Buy 254.59 Buy 280.12 Buy 313.61 Buy 359.49 Buy
11.91 (%) 178.05 Sell 186.75 Sell 196.91 Sell 208.93 Buy 223.38 Buy 241.07 Buy 263.24 Buy 291.82 Buy 330.07 Buy
11.41 (%) 172.52 Sell 180.46 Sell 189.68 Sell 200.51 Sell 213.43 Buy 229.09 Buy 248.47 Buy 273.09 Buy 305.39 Buy
10.91 (%) 167.42 Sell 174.68 Sell 183.07 Sell 192.87 Sell 204.46 Sell 218.40 Buy 235.46 Buy 256.84 Buy 284.40 Buy
10.41 (%) 162.70 Sell 169.36 Sell 177.02 Sell 185.91 Sell 196.36 Sell 208.82 Buy 223.92 Buy 242.62 Buy 266.37 Buy
9.91 (%) 158.32 Sell 164.45 Sell 171.46 Sell 179.55 Sell 189.00 Sell 200.19 Sell 213.63 Buy 230.09 Buy 250.72 Buy
9.41 (%) 154.26 Sell 159.90 Sell 166.33 Sell 173.72 Sell 182.30 Sell 192.39 Sell 204.41 Sell 218.98 Buy 237.03 Buy
8.91 (%) 150.48 Sell 155.69 Sell 161.61 Sell 168.37 Sell 176.18 Sell 185.30 Sell 196.10 Sell 209.07 Buy 224.96 Buy