Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

$460.04
8 (+1.77%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12260,171.10280,646.56302,733.45326,558.57352,258.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 57,049.7661,818.9884,510.6473,341.5676,563.7587,033.5581,849.8394,213.05101,627.62109,625.71118,253.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50,298.8153,867.7073,245.6762,839.5466,408.7476,117.8469,309.5881,640.0988,065.1694,995.89102,472.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,540.2512,572.9713,562.4614,629.8215,781.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 40,539.8525,078.5541,600.9267,152.4974,179.7366,291.04100,556.1373,108.4378,862.0685,068.5191,763.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,108.8017,456.2816,850.7115,763.8017,880.1623,185.9322,921.0722,872.6924,672.7826,614.5228,709.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,760.372,102.062,360.502,134.914,859.743,957.284,110.703,760.664,056.634,375.884,720.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22,372.1230,196.6235,501.0137,285.3744,241.9355,879.9546,232.4048,187.0151,979.3356,070.1160,482.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9,075.32-9,815.73-11,498.68-12,744.74-12,447.34-13,306.01-10,484.90-14,425.23-15,560.50-16,785.11-18,106.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 460.04
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,648.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.24
Total Debt 108,047.00
Total Equity 2,138,685.94
Total Capital 2,230,492.94
Debt Weighting 4.12
Equity Weighting 95.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12260,171.10280,646.56302,733.45326,558.57352,258.73
EBITDA 57,049.7661,818.9884,510.6473,341.5676,563.7587,033.5581,849.8394,213.05101,627.62109,625.71118,253.26
EBIT 50,298.8153,867.7073,245.6762,839.5466,408.7476,117.8469,309.5881,640.0988,065.1694,995.89102,472.06
Tax Rate 26.15%26.13%26.37%25.56%24.56%18.34%15.94%23.29%23.29%23.29%23.29%
EBIAT 37,143.2039,794.1953,932.0046,779.4850,101.0962,156.1758,258.9762,623.8967,552.3972,868.7678,603.53
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,540.2512,572.9713,562.4614,629.8215,781.19
Accounts Receivable --4,347.48605.571,086.91-2,116.36-5,305.77264.8648.38-1,800.08-1,941.75-2,094.56
Inventories --341.69-258.44225.60-2,724.83902.46-153.43350.04-295.96-319.26-344.38
Accounts Payable -7,824.505,304.391,784.366,956.5611,638.02-9,647.551,954.613,792.324,090.774,412.72
Capital Expenditure -740.411,682.951,246.06-297.40858.67-2,821.123,940.341,135.271,224.611,320.99
UFCF 43,894.1451,621.2172,531.4561,624.4262,074.0881,165.2658,441.9981,490.2283,946.3890,552.9697,679.48
WACC
PV UFCF 72,817.6467,029.2264,609.4462,277.01
SUM PV UFCF 396,088.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 101,586.66
Terminal Value 1,284,281.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 731,670.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,127,759.40
Net Debt 59,203.00
Equity Value 1,068,556.40
Shares Outstanding 4,648.91
Equity Value Per Share 229.85