Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
$ 134.11
0.4169 (+0.31%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 170,910 | 182,795 | 233,715 | 215,639 | 229,234 | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 295,187.38 | 317,416.49 | 341,319.57 | 367,022.68 | 394,661.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 55,756 | 60,449 | 82,487 | 70,529 | 71,501 | 81,801 | 76,477 | 77,344 | 93,446.32 | 100,483.30 | 108,050.21 | 116,186.94 | 124,936.41 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBIT | 48,999 | 52,503 | 71,230 | 60,024 | 61,344 | 70,898 | 63,930 | 66,288 | 80,393.65 | 86,447.71 | 92,957.66 | 99,957.84 | 107,485.18 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6,757 | 7,946 | 11,257 | 10,505 | 10,157 | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 13,052.66 | 14,035.60 | 15,092.55 | 16,229.09 | 17,451.23 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 40,546 | 25,077 | 41,601 | 67,155 | 74,181 | 66,301 | 100,557 | 90,943 | 79,511.13 | 85,498.73 | 91,937.22 | 98,860.56 | 106,305.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13,102 | 17,460 | 16,849 | 15,754 | 35,673 | 48,995 | 45,804 | 37,445 | 35,786.78 | 38,481.71 | 41,379.58 | 44,495.67 | 47,846.42 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,764 | 2,111 | 2,349 | 2,132 | 4,855 | 3,956 | 4,106 | 4,061 | 4,001.87 | 4,303.23 | 4,627.29 | 4,975.75 | 5,350.45 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 22,367 | 30,196 | 35,490 | 37,294 | 49,049 | 55,888 | 46,236 | 42,296 | 50,810.63 | 54,636.93 | 58,751.37 | 63,175.64 | 67,933.09 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8,165 | -9,571 | -11,247 | -12,734 | -12,795 | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -14,029.26 | -15,085.74 | -16,221.77 | -17,443.35 | -18,756.92 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 134.11 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.208 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 17,528.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 14.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.28% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.077 |
| Total Debt | 112,436 |
| Total Equity | 2,350,708.78 |
| Total Capital | 2,463,144.78 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.56 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.44 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 170,910 | 182,795 | 233,715 | 215,639 | 229,234 | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 295,187.38 | 317,416.49 | 341,319.57 | 367,022.68 | 394,661.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 55,756 | 60,449 | 82,487 | 70,529 | 71,501 | 81,801 | 76,477 | 77,344 | 93,446.32 | 100,483.30 | 108,050.21 | 116,186.94 | 124,936.41 |
| EBIT | 48,999 | 52,503 | 71,230 | 60,024 | 61,344 | 70,898 | 63,930 | 66,288 | 80,393.65 | 86,447.71 | 92,957.66 | 99,957.84 | 107,485.18 |
| Tax Rate | 26.15% | 26.13% | 26.37% | 25.56% | 24.56% | 18.34% | 15.94% | 14.43% | 22.18% | 22.18% | 22.18% | 22.18% | 22.18% |
| EBIAT | 36,183.35 | 38,786.03 | 52,447.83 | 44,683.51 | 46,280.07 | 57,893.76 | 53,737.10 | 56,723.86 | 62,558.60 | 67,269.58 | 72,335.32 | 77,782.54 | 83,639.96 |
| Depreciation | 6,757 | 7,946 | 11,257 | 10,505 | 10,157 | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 13,052.66 | 14,035.60 | 15,092.55 | 16,229.09 | 17,451.23 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4,358 | 611 | 1,095 | -19,919 | -13,322 | 3,191 | 8,359 | 1,658.22 | -2,694.93 | -2,897.87 | -3,116.09 | -3,350.75 |
| Inventories | - | -347 | -238 | 217 | -2,723 | 899 | -150 | 45 | 59.13 | -301.36 | -324.06 | -348.46 | -374.70 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7,829 | 5,294 | 1,804 | 11,755 | 6,839 | -9,652 | -3,940 | 8,514.63 | 3,826.30 | 4,114.44 | 4,424.28 | 4,757.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8,165 | -9,571 | -11,247 | -12,734 | -12,795 | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -14,029.26 | -15,085.74 | -16,221.77 | -17,443.35 | -18,756.92 |
| UFCF | 34,775.35 | 40,285.03 | 58,124.84 | 45,570.51 | 32,755.07 | 49,899.76 | 49,178.10 | 64,934.86 | 71,813.97 | 67,049.45 | 72,098.62 | 77,528.01 | 83,366.27 |
| WACC | |||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 57,536.98 | 48,084.21 | 46,281.05 | 44,545.52 | 42,875.06 | ||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 267,371.46 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 86,700.92 |
| Terminal Value | 1,123,068.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 645,285.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 912,656.72 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 74,420 |
| Equity Value | 838,236.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 17,528.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 47.82 |