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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12260,171.10280,646.56302,733.45326,558.57352,258.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 56,913.0361,435.1383,762.7671,875.1674,248.5083,793.3778,285.4892,248.5399,508.48107,339.80115,787.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50,162.0853,483.8472,497.7961,373.1564,093.4972,877.6565,745.2479,675.5685,946.0392,709.98100,006.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,540.2512,572.9713,562.4614,629.8215,781.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 40,539.8525,078.5541,600.9267,152.4974,179.7366,291.04100,556.1373,108.4378,862.0685,068.5191,763.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,645.9327,217.1730,335.9529,306.4335,668.6249,001.1945,816.1342,153.1145,470.5649,049.1052,909.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,760.372,102.062,360.502,134.914,859.743,957.284,110.703,760.664,056.634,375.884,720.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22,372.1230,196.6235,501.0137,285.3744,241.9355,879.9546,232.4048,187.0151,979.3356,070.1160,482.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9,075.32-9,815.73-11,498.68-12,744.74-12,447.34-13,306.01-10,484.90-14,425.23-15,560.50-16,785.11-18,106.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 266.98
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,617.83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.75
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.53
Total Debt 91,807.00
Total Equity 1,232,869.32
Total Capital 1,324,676.32
Debt Weighting 6.93
Equity Weighting 93.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 170,910.00182,788.25233,713.05215,647.03229,232.79265,589.12260,171.10280,646.56302,733.45326,558.57352,258.73
EBITDA 56,913.0361,435.1383,762.7671,875.1674,248.5083,793.3778,285.4892,248.5399,508.48107,339.80115,787.44
EBIT 50,162.0853,483.8472,497.7961,373.1564,093.4972,877.6565,745.2479,675.5685,946.0392,709.98100,006.25
Tax Rate 26.15%26.13%26.37%25.56%24.56%18.34%15.94%23.29%23.29%23.29%23.29%
EBIAT 37,042.2339,510.6253,381.3345,687.8548,354.3959,510.3055,262.9261,116.9565,926.8671,115.3076,712.07
Depreciation 6,750.947,951.2911,264.9710,502.0110,155.0110,915.7112,540.2512,572.9713,562.4614,629.8215,781.19
Accounts Receivable --6,571.24-3,118.781,029.52-6,362.19-13,332.573,185.063,663.02-3,317.45-3,578.53-3,860.16
Inventories --341.69-258.44225.60-2,724.83902.46-153.43350.04-295.96-319.26-344.38
Accounts Payable -7,824.505,304.391,784.366,956.5611,638.02-9,647.551,954.613,792.324,090.774,412.72
Capital Expenditure -740.411,682.951,246.06-297.40858.67-2,821.123,940.341,135.271,224.611,320.99
UFCF 43,793.1849,113.8868,256.4260,475.4056,081.5470,492.6058,366.1483,597.9280,803.4887,162.7294,022.42
WACC
PV UFCF 67,825.5159,050.8957,375.4255,747.49
SUM PV UFCF 396,134.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 97,783.32
Terminal Value 1,392,924.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 825,888.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,222,023.49
Net Debt -8,749.13
Equity Value 1,230,772.62
Shares Outstanding 4,617.83
Equity Value Per Share 266.53