Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Acorda Therapeutics Inc (ACOR)
$7.22
-0.82 (-10.20%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 336.43 | 401.48 | 492.66 | 519.60 | 588.29 | 471.43 | 192.41 | 186.53 | 180.84 | 175.32 | 169.97 | 164.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 38.03 | 54.96 | 60.75 | 4.44 | 127.68 | 108.50 | -82.25 | 10.70 | 10.37 | 10.06 | 9.75 | 9.45 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBIT | 31.03 | 46.49 | 45.74 | -17.14 | 104.44 | 97.02 | -116.82 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.00 | 8.47 | 15.01 | 21.58 | 23.23 | 11.48 | 34.57 | 9.53 | 9.23 | 8.95 | 8.68 | 8.41 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 273.93 | 307.62 | 353.30 | 158.54 | 307.07 | 445.55 | 125.84 | 125.88 | 122.04 | 118.31 | 114.70 | 111.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 30.78 | 32.21 | 31.47 | 52.24 | 81.40 | 23.43 | 22.08 | 17.03 | 16.51 | 16.00 | 15.52 | 15.04 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||||
| Inventories | 26.17 | 26.84 | 36.48 | 43.13 | 37.50 | 29.01 | 25.22 | 14.87 | 14.42 | 13.98 | 13.55 | 13.14 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 17.98 | 20.29 | 17.07 | 29.91 | 31.07 | 49.37 | 26.84 | 13.14 | 12.74 | 12.35 | 11.98 | 11.61 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -14.66 | -483.93 | -7.07 | -273.54 | -14.38 | -33.91 | -90.43 | -62.78 | -60.87 | -59.01 | -57.21 | -55.46 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.281 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47.51 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.47 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.660 |
| Total Debt | 252.82 |
| Total Equity | 343.04 |
| Total Capital | 595.86 |
| Debt Weighting | 42.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 57.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 336.43 | 401.48 | 492.66 | 519.60 | 588.29 | 471.43 | 192.41 | 186.53 | 180.84 | 175.32 | 169.97 | 164.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 38.03 | 54.96 | 60.75 | 4.44 | 127.68 | 108.50 | -82.25 | 10.70 | 10.37 | 10.06 | 9.75 | 9.45 |
| EBIT | 31.03 | 46.49 | 45.74 | -17.14 | 104.44 | 97.02 | -116.82 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| Tax Rate | 43.04% | 36.91% | 42.91% | 18.10% | 11.33% | -64.92% | 0.47% | 12.55% | 12.55% | 12.55% | 12.55% | 12.55% |
| EBIAT | 17.68 | 29.33 | 26.11 | -14.04 | 92.61 | 160.01 | -116.28 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| Depreciation | 7.00 | 8.47 | 15.01 | 21.58 | 23.23 | 11.48 | 34.57 | 9.53 | 9.23 | 8.95 | 8.68 | 8.41 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.43 | 0.74 | -20.77 | -29.16 | 57.97 | 1.35 | 5.06 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| Inventories | - | -0.66 | -9.64 | -6.66 | 5.63 | 8.49 | 3.79 | 10.35 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.31 | -3.22 | 12.84 | 1.16 | 18.29 | -22.53 | -13.69 | -0.40 | -0.39 | -0.38 | -0.37 |
| Capital Expenditure | -14.66 | -483.93 | -7.07 | -273.54 | -14.38 | -33.91 | -90.43 | -62.78 | -60.87 | -59.01 | -57.21 | -55.46 |
| UFCF | 10.01 | -445.92 | 21.95 | -280.59 | 79.11 | 222.33 | -189.52 | -50.52 | -50.07 | -48.54 | -47.06 | -45.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -46.18 | -41.83 | -37.07 | -32.85 | -29.11 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -187.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -47.44 |
| Terminal Value | -878.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -560.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -747.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 160.00 |
| Equity Value | -907.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.51 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -19.10 |