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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


American International Group Inc.

American International Group Inc. (AIG)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 68,874.0064,404.0858,324.3352,363.5949,515.0147,385.8643,983.5640,825.5437,894.2635,173.4632,648.00
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16,302.4816,622.699,162.754,686.546,486.476,818.837,450.816,915.856,419.295,958.385,530.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,591.4912,172.374,531.80596.942,614.391,454.753,883.753,604.893,346.063,105.822,882.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,710.984,450.324,630.954,089.603,872.075,364.083,567.073,310.953,073.222,852.572,647.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --11,758.1914,169.5912,750.1112,547.7810,934.3110,149.239,420.518,744.128,116.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12,941.4212,030.6811,449.0710,467.4810,249.6111,012.478,871.488,234.517,643.277,094.496,585.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 54.36
Diluted Shares Outstanding 910.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 104.05
After-tax Cost of Debt -5.15
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.53
Total Debt 33,152.00
Total Equity 49,475.28
Total Capital 82,627.28
Debt Weighting 40.12
Equity Weighting 59.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 68,874.0064,404.0858,324.3352,363.5949,515.0147,385.8643,983.5640,825.5437,894.2635,173.4632,648.00
EBITDA 16,302.4816,622.699,162.754,686.546,486.476,818.837,450.816,915.856,419.295,958.385,530.57
EBIT 11,591.4912,172.374,531.80596.942,614.391,454.753,883.753,604.893,346.063,105.822,882.82
Tax Rate 3.81%27.99%32.53%-27.86%521.91%104.05%110.41%110.41%110.41%110.41%110.41%
EBIAT 11,149.688,764.903,057.40763.26-11,030.49-58.98-404.21-375.19-348.25-323.24-300.04
Depreciation 4,710.984,450.324,630.954,089.603,872.075,364.083,567.073,310.953,073.222,852.572,647.75
Accounts Receivable -910.74581.62981.59217.87-762.872,140.99636.97591.24548.79509.38
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure -----------
UFCF 15,860.6614,125.968,269.975,834.44-6,940.544,542.245,303.853,572.743,316.213,078.112,857.10
WACC
PV UFCF 4,910.063,061.912,631.062,260.831,942.70
SUM PV UFCF 45,096.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,971.39
Terminal Value 73,915.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 50,258.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 95,355.01
Net Debt 20,604.22
Equity Value 74,750.78
Shares Outstanding 910.14
Equity Value Per Share 82.13

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
10.02 (%) 49.36 Sell 52.11 Sell 55.55 Buy 59.96 Buy 65.84 Buy 74.06 Buy 86.37 Buy 106.84 Buy 147.57 Buy
9.52 (%) 47.80 Sell 50.23 Sell 53.24 Sell 57.05 Buy 62.02 Buy 68.79 Buy 78.57 Buy 93.89 Buy 121.38 Buy
9.02 (%) 46.39 Sell 48.56 Sell 51.20 Sell 54.51 Buy 58.76 Buy 64.43 Buy 72.34 Buy 84.20 Buy 103.92 Buy
8.52 (%) 45.12 Sell 47.05 Sell 49.40 Sell 52.29 Sell 55.96 Buy 60.75 Buy 67.28 Buy 76.69 Buy 91.45 Buy
8.02 (%) 43.96 Sell 45.70 Sell 47.79 Sell 50.34 Sell 53.52 Sell 57.62 Buy 63.08 Buy 70.71 Buy 82.13 Buy
7.52 (%) 42.90 Sell 44.47 Sell 46.34 Sell 48.60 Sell 51.39 Sell 54.92 Buy 59.54 Buy 65.83 Buy 74.90 Buy
7.02 (%) 41.94 Sell 43.36 Sell 45.04 Sell 47.05 Sell 49.51 Sell 52.58 Sell 56.53 Buy 61.79 Buy 69.14 Buy
6.52 (%) 41.06 Sell 42.35 Sell 43.86 Sell 45.66 Sell 47.84 Sell 50.53 Sell 53.93 Sell 58.38 Buy 64.45 Buy
6.02 (%) 40.24 Sell 41.42 Sell 42.79 Sell 44.41 Sell 46.35 Sell 48.72 Sell 51.68 Sell 55.48 Buy 60.55 Buy