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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


AK Steel Holding Corporation

AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,570.406,505.676,693.035,882.516,080.756,818.347,132.677,461.487,805.468,165.298,541.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 279.63277.79-35.47365.30503.49583.65378.03395.46413.69432.76452.71
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 70.1955.30-272.41130.59253.57331.37110.56115.65120.98126.56132.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 209.45222.49236.93234.71249.92252.28267.48279.81292.70306.20320.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 45.1270.2656.89172.9537.7048.4183.4587.3091.3295.5399.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 525.29644.06445.09441.78518.08635.47610.56638.70668.15698.95731.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 586.561,172.321,226.161,114.151,385.191,419.581,300.291,360.231,422.941,488.531,557.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 601.60802.80703.44590.02690.16801.16793.87830.46868.75908.80950.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -63.50-81.32-99.06-127.65-152.63-152.05-128.39-134.31-140.50-146.98-153.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.37
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.22
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 24.62
Total Debt 1,993.70
Total Equity -
Total Capital 1,993.70
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,570.406,505.676,693.035,882.516,080.756,818.347,132.677,461.487,805.468,165.298,541.71
EBITDA 279.63277.79-35.47365.30503.49583.65378.03395.46413.69432.76452.71
EBIT 70.1955.30-272.41130.59253.57331.37110.56115.65120.98126.56132.40
Tax Rate 18.18%-8.63%-14.23%50.15%-2.17%-3.45%6.64%6.64%6.64%6.64%6.64%
EBIAT 57.4360.07-311.1665.10259.07342.80103.21107.97112.95118.16123.60
Depreciation 209.45222.49236.93234.71249.92252.28267.48279.81292.70306.20320.31
Accounts Receivable --118.77198.973.31-76.30-117.3924.91-28.15-29.44-30.80-32.22
Inventories --585.76-53.84112.02-271.05-34.38119.29-59.94-62.71-65.60-68.62
Accounts Payable -201.20-99.36-113.42100.15110.99-7.2936.6038.2840.0541.90
Capital Expenditure -17.8217.7428.5924.98-0.58-23.665.926.196.486.78
UFCF 266.87-202.95-10.72330.31286.77553.71483.94342.20357.98374.48391.75
WACC
PV UFCF 460.15309.39307.74306.10304.47
SUM PV UFCF 2,210.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 407.42
Terminal Value 34,821.82
Present Value of Terminal Value 27,064.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 29,274.47
Net Debt 1,945.29
Equity Value 27,329.18
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity