Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 5,570.40 | 6,505.67 | 6,693.03 | 5,882.51 | 6,080.75 | 6,818.34 | 7,132.67 | 7,461.48 | 7,805.46 | 8,165.29 | 8,541.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 279.63 | 277.79 | -35.47 | 365.30 | 503.49 | 583.65 | 378.03 | 395.46 | 413.69 | 432.76 | 452.71 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 70.19 | 55.30 | -272.41 | 130.59 | 253.57 | 331.37 | 110.56 | 115.65 | 120.98 | 126.56 | 132.40 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 209.45 | 222.49 | 236.93 | 234.71 | 249.92 | 252.28 | 267.48 | 279.81 | 292.70 | 306.20 | 320.31 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 45.12 | 70.26 | 56.89 | 172.95 | 37.70 | 48.41 | 83.45 | 87.30 | 91.32 | 95.53 | 99.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 525.29 | 644.06 | 445.09 | 441.78 | 518.08 | 635.47 | 610.56 | 638.70 | 668.15 | 698.95 | 731.17 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 586.56 | 1,172.32 | 1,226.16 | 1,114.15 | 1,385.19 | 1,419.58 | 1,300.29 | 1,360.23 | 1,422.94 | 1,488.53 | 1,557.15 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 601.60 | 802.80 | 703.44 | 590.02 | 690.16 | 801.16 | 793.87 | 830.46 | 868.75 | 908.80 | 950.69 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -63.50 | -81.32 | -99.06 | -127.65 | -152.63 | -152.05 | -128.39 | -134.31 | -140.50 | -146.98 | -153.75 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.18 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 315.54 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -3.45 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.22 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 24.62 |
Total Debt | 1,993.70 |
Total Equity | 1,003.42 |
Total Capital | 2,997.12 |
Debt Weighting | 66.52 |
Equity Weighting | 33.48 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 5,570.40 | 6,505.67 | 6,693.03 | 5,882.51 | 6,080.75 | 6,818.34 | 7,132.67 | 7,461.48 | 7,805.46 | 8,165.29 | 8,541.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 279.63 | 277.79 | -35.47 | 365.30 | 503.49 | 583.65 | 378.03 | 395.46 | 413.69 | 432.76 | 452.71 |
EBIT | 70.19 | 55.30 | -272.41 | 130.59 | 253.57 | 331.37 | 110.56 | 115.65 | 120.98 | 126.56 | 132.40 |
Tax Rate | 18.18% | -8.63% | -14.23% | 50.15% | -2.17% | -3.45% | 6.64% | 6.64% | 6.64% | 6.64% | 6.64% |
EBIAT | 57.43 | 60.07 | -311.16 | 65.10 | 259.07 | 342.80 | 103.21 | 107.97 | 112.95 | 118.16 | 123.60 |
Depreciation | 209.45 | 222.49 | 236.93 | 234.71 | 249.92 | 252.28 | 267.48 | 279.81 | 292.70 | 306.20 | 320.31 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -118.77 | 198.97 | 3.31 | -76.30 | -117.39 | 24.91 | -28.15 | -29.44 | -30.80 | -32.22 |
Inventories | - | -585.76 | -53.84 | 112.02 | -271.05 | -34.38 | 119.29 | -59.94 | -62.71 | -65.60 | -68.62 |
Accounts Payable | - | 201.20 | -99.36 | -113.42 | 100.15 | 110.99 | -7.29 | 36.60 | 38.28 | 40.05 | 41.90 |
Capital Expenditure | - | 17.82 | 17.74 | 28.59 | 24.98 | -0.58 | -23.66 | 5.92 | 6.19 | 6.48 | 6.78 |
UFCF | 266.87 | -202.95 | -10.72 | 330.31 | 286.77 | 553.71 | 483.94 | 342.20 | 357.98 | 374.48 | 391.75 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 433.33 | 274.37 | 257.00 | 240.73 | 225.49 | ||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,468.83 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.68 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 407.42 |
Terminal Value | 5,304.89 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,053.51 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,522.34 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,945.29 |
Equity Value | 2,577.05 |
Shares Outstanding | 315.54 |
Equity Value Per Share | 8.17 |