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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3623,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.786,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12,448.3717,414.3719,806.5325,986.0330,983.8341,242.4753,196.7966,879.0184,080.29105,705.74132,893.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,764.935,614.965,649.848,335.6513,161.9016,673.9818,883.8423,740.7629,846.8837,523.5047,174.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,407.978,302.3010,240.3311,463.2316,043.2917,163.0226,203.1532,942.6041,415.4452,067.4965,459.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,136.0916,462.2320,395.0625,306.1234,612.2538,191.7954,836.3268,940.2286,671.65108,963.59136,989.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,447.13-4,894.18-4,590.49-6,731.08-10,049.29-11,317.81-14,580.08-18,330.08-23,044.57-28,971.63-36,423.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,793.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding 500.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.41
Total Debt 33,145.00
Total Equity 896,570.00
Total Capital 929,715.00
Debt Weighting 3.57
Equity Weighting 96.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3623,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.786,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
Tax Rate 37.01%-225.68%61.45%37.54%20.23%10.62%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%
EBIAT 361.10463.68771.402,675.443,717.4811,343.777,522.599,457.4011,889.8514,947.9118,792.52
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Accounts Receivable --850.03-34.88-2,685.82-4,826.25-3,512.07-2,209.86-4,856.92-6,106.12-7,676.62-9,651.04
Inventories --894.33-1,938.03-1,222.89-4,580.07-1,119.72-9,040.14-6,739.45-8,472.84-10,652.05-13,391.76
Accounts Payable -1,326.143,932.834,911.079,306.133,579.5416,644.5314,103.9017,731.4322,291.9528,025.44
Capital Expenditure -1,447.05-303.682,140.583,318.221,268.523,262.273,750.004,714.505,927.067,451.50
UFCF 3,614.656,235.428,708.8013,936.4618,407.7026,906.6233,043.1036,915.9846,410.7758,347.6173,354.62
WACC
PV UFCF 24,976.6424,260.1926,517.0528,983.8631,680.16
SUM PV UFCF 110,070.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 76,288.81
Terminal Value 692,275.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 343,884.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 453,955.21
Net Debt -8,097.47
Equity Value 462,052.69
Shares Outstanding 500.00
Equity Value Per Share 924.11

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
17.02 (%) 685.07 Sell 718.05 Sell 755.42 Sell 798.12 Sell 847.38 Sell 904.83 Sell 972.71 Sell 1,054.14 Sell 1,153.63 Sell
16.52 (%) 662.75 Sell 693.27 Sell 727.73 Sell 766.93 Sell 811.93 Sell 864.12 Sell 925.37 Sell 998.27 Sell 1,086.48 Sell
16.02 (%) 641.91 Sell 670.21 Sell 702.05 Sell 738.12 Sell 779.34 Sell 826.89 Sell 882.36 Sell 947.89 Sell 1,026.50 Sell
15.52 (%) 622.42 Sell 648.71 Sell 678.18 Sell 711.45 Sell 749.30 Sell 792.75 Sell 843.14 Sell 902.28 Sell 972.66 Sell
15.02 (%) 604.17 Sell 628.63 Sell 655.96 Sell 686.70 Sell 721.54 Sell 761.34 Sell 807.26 Sell 860.82 Sell 924.11 Sell
14.52 (%) 587.06 Sell 609.85 Sell 635.24 Sell 663.70 Sell 695.83 Sell 732.39 Sell 774.35 Sell 823.02 Sell 880.14 Sell
14.02 (%) 570.99 Sell 592.26 Sell 615.88 Sell 642.28 Sell 671.98 Sell 705.63 Sell 744.08 Sell 788.44 Sell 840.18 Sell
13.52 (%) 555.89 Sell 575.76 Sell 597.78 Sell 622.31 Sell 649.81 Sell 680.85 Sell 716.17 Sell 756.71 Sell 803.73 Sell
13.02 (%) 541.68 Sell 560.28 Sell 580.82 Sell 603.65 Sell 629.16 Sell 657.85 Sell 690.37 Sell 727.52 Sell 770.38 Sell