Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

$ 3425.06
+16.04 (+0.47%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 135,987177,866232,887280,522386,064501,697.74651,966.05847,242.671,101,008.471,430,782.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12,39616,12828,02837,35151,09256,959.7574,020.3196,190.84125,001.88162,442.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,2804,65012,68715,56225,84123,529.9930,577.6839,736.2951,638.0967,104.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8,11611,47815,34121,78925,25133,429.7643,442.6356,454.5573,363.7995,337.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 25,98130,98641,25055,02184,39696,038.34124,803.71162,184.87210,762.42273,889.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,33913,16416,67720,81624,54234,588.7444,948.7558,411.7875,907.2698,642.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 11,46116,04717,17420,49723,79538,424.6149,933.5464,889.6184,325.32109,582.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 25,30934,61638,19247,18372,53990,387.51117,460.34152,642.01198,361.29257,774.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,737-11,955-13,427-16,861-40,140-33,963.71-44,136.51-57,356.26-74,535.59-96,860.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,425.06
Beta 1.159
Diluted Shares Outstanding 510
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.688
Total Debt 31,875
Total Equity 1,746,780.60
Total Capital 1,778,655.60
Debt Weighting 1.79
Equity Weighting 98.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 135,987177,866232,887280,522386,064501,697.74651,966.05847,242.671,101,008.471,430,782.09
EBITDA 12,39616,12828,02837,35151,09256,959.7574,020.3196,190.84125,001.88162,442.40
EBIT 4,2804,65012,68715,56225,84123,529.9930,577.6839,736.2951,638.0967,104.71
Tax Rate 39.08%20.31%10.55%17.09%11.78%19.76%19.76%19.76%19.76%19.76%
EBIAT 2,607.373,705.5811,348.5612,903.0122,798.1818,880.3924,535.4431,884.2841,434.2553,844.62
Depreciation 8,11611,47815,34121,78925,25133,429.7643,442.6356,454.5573,363.7995,337.69
Accounts Receivable --4,825-3,513-4,139-3,726-10,046.74-10,360.01-13,463.03-17,495.47-22,735.71
Inventories --4,586-1,127-3,323-3,298-14,629.61-11,508.93-14,956.07-19,435.71-25,257.09
Accounts Payable -9,3073,5768,99125,35617,848.5027,072.8335,181.6745,719.2859,413.09
Capital Expenditure -6,737-11,955-13,427-16,861-40,140-33,963.71-44,136.51-57,356.26-74,535.59-96,860.46
UFCF 3,986.373,124.5812,198.5619,360.0126,241.1811,518.5929,045.4537,745.1449,050.5563,742.15
WACC
PV UFCF 10,325.0123,337.8727,185.3931,667.2136,887.92
SUM PV UFCF 129,403.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) 66,291.83
Terminal Value 876,876.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 507,452.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 636,856.26
Net Debt -10,247
Equity Value 647,103.26
Shares Outstanding 510
Equity Value Per Share 1,268.83