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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,998.074,920.878,517.5612,306.3115,580.8527,758.9123,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 744.52177.972,236.394,188.224,108.6512,412.336,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12,448.3717,414.3719,806.5325,986.0330,983.8341,242.4753,196.7966,879.0184,080.29105,705.74132,893.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,764.935,614.966,420.278,335.6513,161.9016,673.9819,235.1624,182.4530,402.1738,221.6148,052.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,407.978,302.3010,240.3311,463.2316,043.2917,163.0226,203.1532,942.6041,415.4452,067.4965,459.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,136.0916,462.2320,395.0625,306.1234,612.2538,191.7954,836.3268,940.2286,671.65108,963.59136,989.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 3,447.134,894.184,590.496,731.08-13,436.9914,726.4718,514.1123,275.9429,262.5136,788.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,884.58
Diluted Shares Outstanding 487.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.53
Total Debt 23,495.00
Total Equity 917,790.46
Total Capital 941,285.46
Debt Weighting 2.50
Equity Weighting 97.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
EBITDA 3,998.074,920.878,517.5612,306.3115,580.8527,758.9123,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBIT 744.52177.972,236.394,188.224,108.6512,412.336,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
Tax Rate 37.01%-225.68%61.45%37.54%20.23%10.62%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%
EBIAT 468.96579.61862.152,615.993,277.6311,094.007,522.599,457.4011,889.8514,947.9118,792.52
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Accounts Receivable --850.03-805.31-1,915.38-4,826.25-3,512.07-2,561.19-4,947.28-6,219.73-7,819.44-9,830.60
Inventories --894.33-1,938.03-1,222.89-4,580.07-1,119.72-9,040.14-6,739.45-8,472.84-10,652.05-13,391.76
Accounts Payable -1,326.143,932.834,911.079,306.133,579.5416,644.5314,103.9017,731.4322,291.9528,025.44
Capital Expenditure --1,447.05303.68-2,140.586,731.08--1,289.48-3,787.65-4,761.83-5,986.57-7,526.32
UFCF 3,722.513,457.248,636.4910,366.2721,380.7125,388.3228,140.0329,287.9736,820.8446,291.1658,197.24
WACC
PV UFCF 28,140.0325,628.2628,193.7731,016.1134,120.98
SUM PV UFCF 97,921.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 60,525.13
Terminal Value 588,765.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 302,058.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 399,979.88
Net Debt -17,747.47
Equity Value 417,727.36
Shares Outstanding 487.00
Equity Value Per Share 857.76