Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

$ 3367.42
34.76 (+1.04%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 74,45288,988107,006135,987177,866232,887280,522386,064489,012.40619,413.17784,586.81993,805.891,258,815.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,9984,9248,51412,30215,58427,76236,33048,15045,240.7357,304.6972,585.6491,941.43116,458.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7451782,2334,1864,10612,42114,54122,89915,356.5919,451.6124,638.6031,208.7639,530.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,2534,7466,2818,11611,47815,34121,78925,25129,884.1337,853.0847,947.0460,732.6776,927.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 12,44717,41619,80825,98130,98641,25055,02184,39692,003.89116,537.78147,613.92186,976.87236,836.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,7675,6126,4238,33913,16416,67720,81624,54232,509.1841,178.1352,158.7566,067.4883,685.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,4118,29910,24311,46116,04717,17420,49723,79541,044.6451,989.6665,853.3083,413.84105,657.09
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,13316,45920,39725,30934,61638,19247,18372,53990,445.77114,564.17145,114.02183,810.34232,825.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,444-4,893-4,589-6,737-11,955-13,427-16,861-40,140-29,500.66-37,367.35-47,331.78-59,953.35-75,940.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,367.42
Beta 1.152
Diluted Shares Outstanding 510
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.628
Total Debt 31,875
Total Equity 1,717,384.20
Total Capital 1,749,259.20
Debt Weighting 1.82
Equity Weighting 98.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 74,45288,988107,006135,987177,866232,887280,522386,064489,012.40619,413.17784,586.81993,805.891,258,815.64
EBITDA 3,9984,9248,51412,30215,58427,76236,33048,15045,240.7357,304.6972,585.6491,941.43116,458.67
EBIT 7451782,2334,1864,10612,42114,54122,89915,356.5919,451.6124,638.6031,208.7639,530.94
Tax Rate 45.85%-117.12%61.99%39.08%20.31%10.55%17.09%11.78%11.19%11.19%11.19%11.19%11.19%
EBIAT 403.42386.47848.772,550.103,272.0711,110.6212,056.4620,202.6013,638.1117,274.8721,881.4227,716.3535,107.23
Depreciation 3,2534,7466,2818,11611,47815,34121,78925,25129,884.1337,853.0847,947.0460,732.6776,927.73
Accounts Receivable --845-811-1,916-4,825-3,513-4,139-3,726-7,967.18-8,668.95-10,980.62-13,908.73-17,617.65
Inventories --888-1,944-1,218-4,586-1,127-3,323-3,298-17,249.63-10,945.02-13,863.64-17,560.54-22,243.26
Accounts Payable -1,3263,9384,9129,3073,5768,99125,35617,906.7724,118.4030,549.8538,696.3249,015.14
Capital Expenditure -3,444-4,893-4,589-6,737-11,955-13,427-16,861-40,140-29,500.66-37,367.35-47,331.78-59,953.35-75,940.60
UFCF 212.42-167.533,723.775,707.102,691.0711,960.6218,513.4623,645.606,711.5422,265.0428,202.2735,722.7245,248.60
WACC
PV UFCF 5,398.4916,061.9718,246.7120,728.6123,548.10
SUM PV UFCF 93,642.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 47,058.54
Terminal Value 627,447.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 364,085.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 457,727.11
Net Debt -10,247
Equity Value 467,974.11
Shares Outstanding 510
Equity Value Per Share 917.60