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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3625,441.9431,985.6140,212.3150,554.9263,557.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.787,758.489,753.9612,262.6715,416.6319,381.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5817,683.4722,231.6627,949.6435,138.2944,175.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12,448.3717,414.3719,806.5325,986.0330,983.8341,242.4754,045.8367,946.4285,422.24107,392.84135,014.28
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,764.935,614.965,649.848,335.6513,161.9016,673.9818,913.1123,777.5729,893.1637,581.6847,247.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,407.978,302.3010,240.3311,463.2316,043.2917,163.0225,588.3332,169.6540,443.6850,845.8063,923.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,136.0916,462.2320,395.0625,306.1234,612.2538,191.7953,899.4567,762.3985,190.87107,101.96134,648.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,447.13-4,894.18-4,590.49-6,731.08-10,049.29-11,317.81-14,785.02-18,587.73-23,368.49-29,378.87-36,935.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,766.05
Diluted Shares Outstanding 500.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.41
Total Debt 33,145.00
Total Equity 883,025.00
Total Capital 916,170.00
Debt Weighting 3.62
Equity Weighting 96.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3625,441.9431,985.6140,212.3150,554.9263,557.64
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.787,758.489,753.9612,262.6715,416.6319,381.79
Tax Rate 37.01%-225.68%61.45%37.54%20.23%10.62%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%
EBIAT 361.10463.68771.402,675.443,717.4811,343.778,519.1710,710.3113,465.0016,928.1921,282.12
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5817,683.4722,231.6627,949.6435,138.2944,175.85
Accounts Receivable --850.03-34.88-2,685.82-4,826.25-3,512.07-2,239.14-4,864.45-6,115.59-7,688.52-9,666.01
Inventories --894.33-1,938.03-1,222.89-4,580.07-1,119.72-8,425.31-6,581.32-8,274.03-10,402.12-13,077.54
Accounts Payable -1,326.143,932.834,911.079,306.133,579.5415,707.6613,862.9417,428.4921,911.0927,546.63
Capital Expenditure -1,447.05-303.682,140.583,318.221,268.523,467.213,802.714,780.766,010.387,556.24
UFCF 3,614.656,235.428,708.8013,936.4618,407.7026,906.6234,713.0639,161.8449,234.2661,897.3177,817.30
WACC
PV UFCF 30,180.0229,601.6832,355.4435,365.3838,655.33
SUM PV UFCF 114,065.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 80,929.99
Terminal Value 734,391.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 364,805.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 478,870.97
Net Debt -8,097.47
Equity Value 486,968.45
Shares Outstanding 500.00
Equity Value Per Share 973.94

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
17.02 (%) 720.36 Sell 755.35 Sell 794.99 Sell 840.29 Sell 892.54 Sell 953.49 Sell 1,025.50 Sell 1,111.89 Sell 1,217.42 Sell
16.52 (%) 696.68 Sell 729.06 Sell 765.62 Sell 807.20 Sell 854.94 Sell 910.31 Sell 975.28 Sell 1,052.61 Sell 1,146.19 Sell
16.02 (%) 674.57 Sell 704.60 Sell 738.37 Sell 776.64 Sell 820.37 Sell 870.81 Sell 929.65 Sell 999.17 Sell 1,082.56 Sell
15.52 (%) 653.90 Sell 681.79 Sell 713.05 Sell 748.34 Sell 788.49 Sell 834.59 Sell 888.04 Sell 950.78 Sell 1,025.45 Sell
15.02 (%) 634.54 Sell 660.48 Sell 689.48 Sell 722.09 Sell 759.04 Sell 801.27 Sell 849.99 Sell 906.81 Sell 973.94 Sell
14.52 (%) 616.39 Sell 640.56 Sell 667.49 Sell 697.69 Sell 731.77 Sell 770.56 Sell 815.07 Sell 866.70 Sell 927.30 Sell
14.02 (%) 599.34 Sell 621.90 Sell 646.96 Sell 674.97 Sell 706.47 Sell 742.17 Sell 782.96 Sell 830.02 Sell 884.90 Sell
13.52 (%) 583.32 Sell 604.40 Sell 627.76 Sell 653.78 Sell 682.95 Sell 715.88 Sell 753.35 Sell 796.36 Sell 846.24 Sell
13.02 (%) 568.25 Sell 587.97 Sell 609.77 Sell 633.99 Sell 661.05 Sell 691.49 Sell 725.98 Sell 765.39 Sell 810.86 Sell