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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3623,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.786,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12,448.3717,414.3719,806.5325,986.0330,983.8341,242.4753,196.7966,879.0184,080.29105,705.74132,893.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,764.935,614.965,649.848,335.6513,161.9016,673.9818,883.8423,740.7629,846.8837,523.5047,174.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,407.978,302.3010,240.3311,463.2316,043.2917,163.0226,203.1532,942.6041,415.4452,067.4965,459.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15,136.0916,462.2320,395.0625,306.1234,612.2538,191.7954,836.3268,940.2286,671.65108,963.59136,989.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,447.13-4,894.18-4,590.49-6,731.08-10,049.29-11,317.81-14,580.08-18,330.08-23,044.57-28,971.63-36,423.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,770.54
Diluted Shares Outstanding 487.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.41
Total Debt 33,145.00
Total Equity 862,252.98
Total Capital 895,397.98
Debt Weighting 3.70
Equity Weighting 96.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 74,452.0088,985.03107,004.50135,981.32177,863.56232,876.76292,772.67368,073.80462,742.38581,759.72731,388.32
EBITDA 3,826.834,885.288,282.1512,401.5016,132.2328,038.3623,714.5929,813.9837,482.1347,122.5459,242.45
EBIT 573.28142.382,000.984,283.414,660.0312,691.786,850.888,612.9310,828.1713,613.1817,114.49
Tax Rate 37.01%-225.68%61.45%37.54%20.23%10.62%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%-9.80%
EBIAT 361.10463.68771.402,675.443,717.4811,343.777,522.599,457.4011,889.8514,947.9118,792.52
Depreciation 3,253.554,742.906,281.168,118.0811,472.2015,346.5816,863.7121,201.0526,653.9633,509.3642,127.97
Accounts Receivable --850.03-34.88-2,685.82-4,826.25-3,512.07-2,209.86-4,856.92-6,106.12-7,676.62-9,651.04
Inventories --894.33-1,938.03-1,222.89-4,580.07-1,119.72-9,040.14-6,739.45-8,472.84-10,652.05-13,391.76
Accounts Payable -1,326.143,932.834,911.079,306.133,579.5416,644.5314,103.9017,731.4322,291.9528,025.44
Capital Expenditure -1,447.05-303.682,140.583,318.221,268.523,262.273,750.004,714.505,927.067,451.50
UFCF 3,614.656,235.428,708.8013,936.4618,407.7026,906.6233,043.1036,915.9846,410.7758,347.6173,354.62
WACC
PV UFCF 28,730.6327,908.9330,507.8733,348.8436,454.36
SUM PV UFCF 110,140.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) 76,288.81
Terminal Value 692,904.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 344,346.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 454,486.44
Net Debt -8,097.47
Equity Value 462,583.91
Shares Outstanding 487.00
Equity Value Per Share 949.86