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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Apache Corporation

Apache Corporation (APA)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,771.0012,794.646,509.915,366.775,886.817,347.926,678.526,070.115,517.125,014.514,557.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,255.51-3,939.47-7,550.851,188.203,396.103,595.34572.35520.21472.82429.74390.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,389.94-8,464.93-10,850.72-1,429.711,116.141,190.36-2,165.85-1,968.54-1,789.20-1,626.21-1,478.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,865.564,525.463,299.872,617.912,279.962,404.972,738.192,488.752,262.022,055.951,868.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,905.46768.961,466.681,377.111,667.73714.221,170.751,064.09967.15879.04798.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,952.722,024.111,253.161,128.101,345.141,194.041,281.611,164.851,058.74962.29874.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 890.69707.54570.27476.03367.93-473.51430.37391.16355.53323.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,615.951,210.37617.79584.98641.07709.07682.55620.37563.85512.48465.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9,249.60-9,134.09-4,540.01-1,815.04-2,002.10-3,765.81-3,593.05-3,265.72-2,968.21-2,697.81-2,452.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.76
Diluted Shares Outstanding 384.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 94.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -4.67
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.72
Total Debt 8,093.00
Total Equity 8,355.84
Total Capital 16,448.84
Debt Weighting 49.20
Equity Weighting 50.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,771.0012,794.646,509.915,366.775,886.817,347.926,678.526,070.115,517.125,014.514,557.69
EBITDA 10,255.51-3,939.47-7,550.851,188.203,396.103,595.34572.35520.21472.82429.74390.59
EBIT 4,389.94-8,464.93-10,850.72-1,429.711,116.141,190.36-2,165.85-1,968.54-1,789.20-1,626.21-1,478.06
Tax Rate 46.35%5.83%8.89%23.93%-81.36%94.38%16.34%16.34%16.34%16.34%16.34%
EBIAT 2,355.37-7,971.03-9,886.17-1,087.572,024.2666.87-1,812.02-1,646.94-1,496.91-1,360.54-1,236.59
Depreciation 5,865.564,525.463,299.872,617.912,279.962,404.972,738.192,488.752,262.022,055.951,868.65
Accounts Receivable -928.61770.95125.06-217.04151.10-87.57116.75106.1296.4587.66
Inventories -183.15137.2894.24108.11367.93-43.1439.2135.6432.39
Accounts Payable --405.57-592.58-32.8156.1068.00-26.53-62.18-56.52-51.37-46.69
Capital Expenditure --115.51-4,594.08-2,724.97187.061,763.70-172.76-327.33-297.51-270.40-245.77
UFCF 8,220.94-2,854.89-10,864.73-1,008.144,438.454,822.58639.31612.19556.42505.73459.65
WACC
PV UFCF 588.52518.78434.06363.18303.87
SUM PV UFCF 3,161.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 478.04
Terminal Value 10,324.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,825.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,987.39
Net Debt 7,378.78
Equity Value 2,608.60
Shares Outstanding 384.00
Equity Value Per Share 6.79

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
10.63 (%) -3.14 Sell -2.23 Sell -1.12 Sell 0.29 Sell 2.12 Sell 4.60 Sell 8.15 Sell 13.66 Sell 23.36 Buy
10.13 (%) -3.66 Sell -2.86 Sell -1.88 Sell -0.65 Sell 0.92 Sell 3.00 Sell 5.89 Sell 10.17 Sell 17.20 Sell
9.63 (%) -4.14 Sell -3.42 Sell -2.55 Sell -1.47 Sell -0.12 Sell 1.64 Sell 4.03 Sell 7.46 Sell 12.76 Sell
9.13 (%) -4.57 Sell -3.92 Sell -3.15 Sell -2.20 Sell -1.02 Sell 0.49 Sell 2.49 Sell 5.28 Sell 9.41 Sell
8.63 (%) -4.97 Sell -4.38 Sell -3.69 Sell -2.85 Sell -1.81 Sell -0.51 Sell 1.19 Sell 3.50 Sell 6.79 Sell
8.13 (%) -5.33 Sell -4.80 Sell -4.17 Sell -3.42 Sell -2.51 Sell -1.37 Sell 0.08 Sell 2.01 Sell 4.70 Sell
7.63 (%) -5.66 Sell -5.18 Sell -4.61 Sell -3.94 Sell -3.13 Sell -2.14 Sell -0.88 Sell 0.76 Sell 2.98 Sell
7.13 (%) -5.96 Sell -5.52 Sell -5.01 Sell -4.41 Sell -3.69 Sell -2.81 Sell -1.71 Sell -0.31 Sell 1.55 Sell
6.63 (%) -6.24 Sell -5.84 Sell -5.38 Sell -4.83 Sell -4.19 Sell -3.41 Sell -2.44 Sell -1.23 Sell 0.35 Sell