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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Apache Corporation

Apache Corporation (APA)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,771.0012,794.646,509.915,366.775,886.817,347.926,678.526,070.115,517.125,014.514,557.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,255.51-3,939.47-7,550.851,188.203,396.103,595.34572.35520.21472.82429.74390.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,389.94-8,464.93-10,850.72-1,429.711,116.141,190.36-2,165.85-1,968.54-1,789.20-1,626.21-1,478.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,865.564,525.463,299.872,617.912,279.962,404.972,738.192,488.752,262.022,055.951,868.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,905.46768.961,466.681,377.111,667.73714.221,170.751,064.09967.15879.04798.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,952.722,024.111,253.161,128.101,345.141,194.041,281.611,164.851,058.74962.29874.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 890.69707.54570.27476.03367.93-473.51430.37391.16355.53323.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,615.951,210.37617.79584.98641.07709.07682.55620.37563.85512.48465.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9,249.60-9,134.09-4,540.01-1,815.04-2,002.10-3,765.81-3,593.05-3,265.72-2,968.21-2,697.81-2,452.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.28
Diluted Shares Outstanding 382.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 94.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -4.67
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.72
Total Debt 8,093.00
Total Equity 8,128.96
Total Capital 16,221.96
Debt Weighting 49.89
Equity Weighting 50.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,771.0012,794.646,509.915,366.775,886.817,347.926,678.526,070.115,517.125,014.514,557.69
EBITDA 10,255.51-3,939.47-7,550.851,188.203,396.103,595.34572.35520.21472.82429.74390.59
EBIT 4,389.94-8,464.93-10,850.72-1,429.711,116.141,190.36-2,165.85-1,968.54-1,789.20-1,626.21-1,478.06
Tax Rate 46.35%5.83%8.89%23.93%-81.36%94.38%16.34%16.34%16.34%16.34%16.34%
EBIAT 2,355.37-7,971.03-9,886.17-1,087.572,024.2666.87-1,812.02-1,646.94-1,496.91-1,360.54-1,236.59
Depreciation 5,865.564,525.463,299.872,617.912,279.962,404.972,738.192,488.752,262.022,055.951,868.65
Accounts Receivable -928.61770.95125.06-217.04151.10-87.57116.75106.1296.4587.66
Inventories -183.15137.2894.24108.11367.93-43.1439.2135.6432.39
Accounts Payable --405.57-592.58-32.8156.1068.00-26.53-62.18-56.52-51.37-46.69
Capital Expenditure --115.51-4,594.08-2,724.97187.061,763.70-172.76-327.33-297.51-270.40-245.77
UFCF 8,220.94-2,854.89-10,864.73-1,008.144,438.454,822.58639.31612.19556.42505.73459.65
WACC
PV UFCF 589.12519.83435.38364.65305.41
SUM PV UFCF 3,180.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) 478.04
Terminal Value 10,576.12
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,027.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,207.68
Net Debt 7,378.78
Equity Value 2,828.90
Shares Outstanding 382.00
Equity Value Per Share 7.41