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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Alpha Pro Tech Ltd.

Alpha Pro Tech Ltd. (APT)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.123.942.184.223.504.403.683.743.793.843.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.403.221.473.672.923.873.033.073.113.163.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.720.720.700.540.570.530.660.670.680.690.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 9.828.3310.3410.069.107.269.539.679.819.9410.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.075.332.764.654.604.934.734.804.864.935.00
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.1416.5416.4011.0010.259.8813.5313.7313.9214.1214.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.691.101.021.011.240.580.970.991.001.021.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 0.350.950.270.271.220.610.630.640.650.660.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.87
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.84
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.00
Total Debt -
Total Equity 99.69
Total Capital 99.69
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
EBITDA 3.123.942.184.223.504.403.683.743.793.843.90
EBIT 2.403.221.473.672.923.873.033.073.113.163.20
Tax Rate 29.86%30.46%31.56%24.12%28.26%17.87%27.02%27.02%27.02%27.02%27.02%
EBIAT 1.682.241.012.792.103.182.212.242.272.302.34
Depreciation 0.720.720.700.540.570.530.660.670.680.690.70
Accounts Receivable --0.262.57-1.890.05-0.340.20-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.07
Inventories --2.400.145.400.750.37-3.65-0.19-0.19-0.20-0.20
Accounts Payable -0.41-0.08-0.020.23-0.660.400.010.010.010.01
Capital Expenditure --0.600.670.01-0.960.62-0.03-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
UFCF 2.400.115.026.832.743.70-0.222.652.692.732.77
WACC
PV UFCF -0.202.272.142.011.88
SUM PV UFCF 20.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2.88
Terminal Value 71.93
Present Value of Terminal Value 48.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 69.59
Net Debt -7.26
Equity Value 76.86
Shares Outstanding 13.96
Equity Value Per Share 5.50