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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Alpha Pro Tech Ltd.

Alpha Pro Tech Ltd. (APT)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.684.662.234.724.244.944.224.284.344.414.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.953.951.524.173.674.413.573.623.673.723.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.720.720.700.540.570.530.660.670.680.690.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 9.828.3310.3410.069.107.269.539.679.819.9410.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.075.672.774.824.965.324.955.025.095.165.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.1416.5416.4011.0010.259.8813.5313.7313.9214.1214.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.691.101.021.011.240.580.970.991.001.021.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.35-0.95-0.27-0.27-0.69-0.61-0.54-0.55-0.55-0.56-0.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.51
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.87
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.84
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.06
Total Debt -
Total Equity 49.01
Total Capital 49.01
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
EBITDA 3.684.662.234.724.244.944.224.284.344.414.47
EBIT 2.953.951.524.173.674.413.573.623.673.723.77
Tax Rate 29.86%30.46%31.56%24.12%28.26%17.87%27.02%27.02%27.02%27.02%27.02%
EBIAT 2.072.741.043.172.633.622.602.642.682.712.75
Depreciation 0.720.720.700.540.570.530.660.670.680.690.70
Accounts Receivable --0.592.90-2.05-0.14-0.360.37-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.07
Inventories --2.400.145.400.750.37-3.65-0.19-0.19-0.20-0.20
Accounts Payable -0.41-0.08-0.020.23-0.660.400.010.010.010.01
Capital Expenditure -0.60-0.67-0.010.42-0.08-0.070.010.010.010.01
UFCF 2.791.484.037.044.463.420.313.063.113.153.20
WACC
PV UFCF 0.282.532.332.151.98
SUM PV UFCF 21.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.32
Terminal Value 54.87
Present Value of Terminal Value 33.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 55.46
Net Debt -7.26
Equity Value 62.72
Shares Outstanding 13.96
Equity Value Per Share 4.49

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.06 (%) 3.30 Sell 3.42 Sell 3.57 Buy 3.76 Buy 3.99 Buy 4.28 Buy 4.67 Buy 5.22 Buy 6.04 Buy
11.56 (%) 3.22 Sell 3.33 Sell 3.47 Sell 3.63 Buy 3.83 Buy 4.09 Buy 4.42 Buy 4.87 Buy 5.52 Buy
11.06 (%) 3.15 Sell 3.25 Sell 3.37 Sell 3.52 Buy 3.70 Buy 3.92 Buy 4.20 Buy 4.58 Buy 5.11 Buy
10.56 (%) 3.09 Sell 3.18 Sell 3.29 Sell 3.42 Sell 3.58 Buy 3.77 Buy 4.02 Buy 4.34 Buy 4.77 Buy
10.06 (%) 3.03 Sell 3.11 Sell 3.21 Sell 3.33 Sell 3.47 Sell 3.64 Buy 3.85 Buy 4.13 Buy 4.49 Buy
9.56 (%) 2.97 Sell 3.05 Sell 3.14 Sell 3.25 Sell 3.37 Sell 3.52 Buy 3.71 Buy 3.95 Buy 4.26 Buy
9.06 (%) 2.92 Sell 2.99 Sell 3.08 Sell 3.17 Sell 3.28 Sell 3.42 Sell 3.58 Buy 3.79 Buy 4.06 Buy
8.56 (%) 2.88 Sell 2.94 Sell 3.02 Sell 3.10 Sell 3.21 Sell 3.33 Sell 3.47 Sell 3.65 Buy 3.88 Buy
8.06 (%) 2.83 Sell 2.89 Sell 2.96 Sell 3.04 Sell 3.13 Sell 3.24 Sell 3.37 Sell 3.53 Buy 3.73 Buy