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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Yamana Gold Inc. (Canada)

Yamana Gold Inc. (Canada) (AUY)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,842.681,835.131,720.621,787.721,803.811,798.581,790.841,783.141,775.481,767.841,760.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 67.99-445.75-1,940.34-26.64235.22412.05-295.13-293.86-292.60-291.34-290.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -333.16-949.31-2,444.31-488.94-191.56-26.26-750.01-746.78-743.57-740.37-737.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 401.15503.56503.97462.30426.78438.31454.87452.92450.97449.03447.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 301.28302.80222.13111.73162.16105.94199.68198.82197.97197.11196.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 80.1651.0245.9436.6538.6024.2845.8545.6545.4545.2645.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 229.23299.49269.96254.03163.43180.94232.27231.27230.28229.29228.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 414.79407.95316.08340.02345.43294.79351.18349.67348.17346.67345.18
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -951.01-662.11-353.76-495.38-607.52-446.95-580.41-577.92-575.43-572.96-570.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.34
Diluted Shares Outstanding 949.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -73.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.75
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.91
Total Debt 1,832.80
Total Equity 3,169.76
Total Capital 5,002.56
Debt Weighting 36.64
Equity Weighting 63.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,842.681,835.131,720.621,787.721,803.811,798.581,790.841,783.141,775.481,767.841,760.24
EBITDA 67.99-445.75-1,940.34-26.64235.22412.05-295.13-293.86-292.60-291.34-290.09
EBIT -333.16-949.31-2,444.31-488.94-191.56-26.26-750.01-746.78-743.57-740.37-737.19
Tax Rate -23.67%-35.03%18.38%51.34%37.67%-73.96%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%-4.21%
EBIAT -412.02-1,281.84-1,994.99-237.90-119.41-45.68-781.59-778.23-774.89-771.55-768.24
Depreciation 401.15503.56503.97462.30426.78438.31454.87452.92450.97449.03447.10
Accounts Receivable -29.145.089.29-1.9514.32-21.560.200.200.200.19
Inventories --70.2629.5315.9390.61-17.51-51.341.000.990.990.99
Accounts Payable --6.84-91.8723.955.41-50.6456.40-1.51-1.50-1.50-1.49
Capital Expenditure --288.89-308.36141.62112.15-160.58133.47-2.50-2.49-2.47-2.46
UFCF -10.87-1,115.14-1,856.64415.19513.58178.22-209.76-328.12-326.71-325.31-323.91
WACC
PV UFCF -192.74-277.04-253.47-231.90-212.17
SUM PV UFCF -2,354.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) -336.87
Terminal Value -6,974.43
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,568.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,923.26
Net Debt 1,726.86
Equity Value -8,650.12
Shares Outstanding 949.03
Equity Value Per Share -9.11