Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Autozone Inc (AZO)
$1248.33
0.31 (+0.02%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,147.53 | 9,475.00 | 10,187.34 | 10,635.68 | 10,888.68 | 11,221.08 | 11,863.74 | 12,631.97 | 13,229.88 | 13,856.09 | 14,511.94 | 15,198.83 | 15,918.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,001.95 | 2,084.67 | 2,225.54 | 2,361.07 | 2,407.87 | 2,163.08 | 2,593.49 | 2,015.35 | 2,764.02 | 2,894.85 | 3,031.87 | 3,175.38 | 3,325.68 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,774.70 | 1,833.37 | 1,955.62 | 2,063.67 | 2,084.82 | 1,818.00 | 2,223.53 | 1,607.15 | 2,384.09 | 2,496.93 | 2,615.12 | 2,738.90 | 2,868.54 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 227.25 | 251.30 | 269.92 | 297.40 | 323.05 | 345.08 | 369.96 | 408.20 | 379.93 | 397.92 | 416.75 | 436.48 | 457.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 142.19 | 124.50 | 175.31 | 189.73 | 293.27 | 217.82 | 176.30 | 1,750.81 | 435.82 | 456.45 | 478.06 | 500.69 | 524.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 171.64 | 200.90 | 247.87 | 287.68 | 280.73 | 258.14 | 308.99 | 364.77 | 322.57 | 337.84 | 353.83 | 370.58 | 388.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,861.01 | 3,140.10 | 3,421.64 | 3,631.92 | 3,882.09 | 3,943.67 | 4,319.11 | 4,473.28 | 4,543.95 | 4,759.03 | 4,984.29 | 5,220.21 | 5,467.30 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3,307.53 | 3,609.20 | 3,864.17 | 4,095.85 | 4,168.94 | 4,409.37 | 4,864.91 | 5,156.32 | 5,128.23 | 5,370.96 | 5,625.18 | 5,891.44 | 6,170.30 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -414.45 | -449.20 | -490.58 | -498.79 | -553.83 | -522.25 | -496.05 | 457.74 | -480.82 | -503.58 | -527.42 | -552.38 | -578.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1,248.33 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.906 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 23.54 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.82 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.91% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.675 |
| Total Debt | 5,737.22 |
| Total Equity | 29,385.69 |
| Total Capital | 35,122.91 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,147.53 | 9,475.00 | 10,187.34 | 10,635.68 | 10,888.68 | 11,221.08 | 11,863.74 | 12,631.97 | 13,229.88 | 13,856.09 | 14,511.94 | 15,198.83 | 15,918.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,001.95 | 2,084.67 | 2,225.54 | 2,361.07 | 2,407.87 | 2,163.08 | 2,593.49 | 2,015.35 | 2,764.02 | 2,894.85 | 3,031.87 | 3,175.38 | 3,325.68 |
| EBIT | 1,774.70 | 1,833.37 | 1,955.62 | 2,063.67 | 2,084.82 | 1,818.00 | 2,223.53 | 1,607.15 | 2,384.09 | 2,496.93 | 2,615.12 | 2,738.90 | 2,868.54 |
| Tax Rate | 35.98% | 35.66% | 35.64% | 35.12% | 33.48% | 18.26% | 20.39% | 21.82% | 29.54% | 29.54% | 29.54% | 29.54% | 29.54% |
| EBIAT | 1,136.22 | 1,179.62 | 1,258.72 | 1,338.95 | 1,386.86 | 1,486.03 | 1,770.24 | 1,256.55 | 1,679.80 | 1,759.31 | 1,842.58 | 1,929.80 | 2,021.14 |
| Depreciation | 227.25 | 251.30 | 269.92 | 297.40 | 323.05 | 345.08 | 369.96 | 408.20 | 379.93 | 397.92 | 416.75 | 436.48 | 457.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -29.26 | -46.97 | -39.81 | 6.95 | 22.60 | -50.86 | -55.78 | 42.20 | -15.27 | -15.99 | -16.75 | -17.54 |
| Inventories | - | -279.09 | -281.54 | -210.28 | -250.17 | -61.58 | -375.44 | -154.17 | -70.67 | -215.08 | -225.26 | -235.92 | -247.09 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 301.67 | 254.97 | 231.69 | 73.09 | 240.43 | 455.54 | 291.41 | -28.10 | 242.73 | 254.22 | 266.26 | 278.86 |
| Capital Expenditure | -414.45 | -449.20 | -490.58 | -498.79 | -553.83 | -522.25 | -496.05 | 457.74 | -480.82 | -503.58 | -527.42 | -552.38 | -578.53 |
| UFCF | 949.02 | 975.04 | 964.52 | 1,119.16 | 985.94 | 1,510.31 | 1,673.38 | 2,203.94 | 1,522.35 | 1,666.03 | 1,744.89 | 1,827.48 | 1,913.98 |
| WACC | |||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,287.70 | 1,296.09 | 1,248.45 | 1,202.56 | 1,158.35 | ||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 6,733.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,990.54 |
| Terminal Value | 42,083.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 27,692.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 34,426.37 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,986.40 |
| Equity Value | 30,439.96 |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.54 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 1,293.12 |