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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone Inc. (AZO)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 9,147.539,475.0110,186.5810,634.7910,887.9011,219.9811,862.8912,389.6012,939.7013,514.2214,114.25
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,000.562,081.662,222.712,357.732,402.962,156.482,586.112,671.202,789.802,913.673,043.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,773.711,830.571,952.772,059.962,079.591,810.912,215.992,321.812,424.902,532.572,645.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 226.86251.09269.94297.77323.37345.58370.12349.39364.90381.10398.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 141.79124.12175.21189.30292.88217.67176.76220.53230.33240.55251.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 171.97200.87247.53288.20280.91258.06308.44293.63306.67320.29334.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,861.353,140.023,421.673,631.783,882.633,943.824,319.284,237.244,425.384,621.864,827.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,307.753,609.033,863.774,095.464,168.984,409.454,864.974,766.284,977.905,198.925,429.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -404.32-433.96-478.77-486.01-550.93-521.73-489.94-568.68-593.93-620.30-647.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,154.58
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.97
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.39
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.97
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.43
Total Debt 5,206.34
Total Equity 28,825.24
Total Capital 34,031.59
Debt Weighting 15.30
Equity Weighting 84.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 9,147.539,475.0110,186.5810,634.7910,887.9011,219.9811,862.8912,389.6012,939.7013,514.2214,114.25
EBITDA 2,000.562,081.662,222.712,357.732,402.962,156.482,586.112,671.202,789.802,913.673,043.03
EBIT 1,773.711,830.571,952.772,059.962,079.591,810.912,215.992,321.812,424.902,532.572,645.01
Tax Rate 35.98%35.66%35.64%35.12%33.48%18.26%20.39%30.65%30.65%30.65%30.65%
EBIAT 1,135.581,177.741,256.891,336.541,383.381,480.231,764.231,610.281,681.781,756.451,834.44
Depreciation 226.86251.09269.94297.77323.37345.58370.12349.39364.90381.10398.02
Accounts Receivable --28.90-46.66-40.677.3022.85-50.3814.80-13.04-13.62-14.22
Inventories --278.67-281.66-210.11-250.84-61.20-375.4582.03-188.13-196.49-205.21
Accounts Payable -301.29254.74231.6973.52240.48455.52-98.69211.62221.02230.83
Capital Expenditure -29.6344.817.2464.92-29.20-31.7978.7525.2526.3727.54
UFCF 1,362.441,452.181,498.071,622.471,601.641,998.742,132.252,036.562,082.382,174.842,271.40
WACC
PV UFCF 1,905.111,822.241,780.301,739.33
SUM PV UFCF 13,379.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,362.26
Terminal Value 81,457.12
Present Value of Terminal Value 58,349.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 71,729.83
Net Debt 5,029.59
Equity Value 66,700.24
Shares Outstanding 24.97
Equity Value Per Share 2,671.64