Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Autozone Inc

Autozone Inc (AZO)

$1248.33
0.31 (+0.02%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 9,147.539,475.0010,187.3410,635.6810,888.6811,221.0811,863.7412,631.9713,229.8813,856.0914,511.9415,198.8315,918.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,001.952,084.672,225.542,361.072,407.872,163.082,593.492,015.352,764.022,894.853,031.873,175.383,325.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,774.701,833.371,955.622,063.672,084.821,818.002,223.531,607.152,384.092,496.932,615.122,738.902,868.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 227.25251.30269.92297.40323.05345.08369.96408.20379.93397.92416.75436.48457.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 142.19124.50175.31189.73293.27217.82176.301,750.81435.82456.45478.06500.69524.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 171.64200.90247.87287.68280.73258.14308.99364.77322.57337.84353.83370.58388.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,861.013,140.103,421.643,631.923,882.093,943.674,319.114,473.284,543.954,759.034,984.295,220.215,467.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,307.533,609.203,864.174,095.854,168.944,409.374,864.915,156.325,128.235,370.965,625.185,891.446,170.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -414.45-449.20-490.58-498.79-553.83-522.25-496.05457.74-480.82-503.58-527.42-552.38-578.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,248.33
Beta 0.906
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.675
Total Debt 5,737.22
Total Equity 29,385.69
Total Capital 35,122.91
Debt Weighting 16.33
Equity Weighting 83.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 9,147.539,475.0010,187.3410,635.6810,888.6811,221.0811,863.7412,631.9713,229.8813,856.0914,511.9415,198.8315,918.24
EBITDA 2,001.952,084.672,225.542,361.072,407.872,163.082,593.492,015.352,764.022,894.853,031.873,175.383,325.68
EBIT 1,774.701,833.371,955.622,063.672,084.821,818.002,223.531,607.152,384.092,496.932,615.122,738.902,868.54
Tax Rate 35.98%35.66%35.64%35.12%33.48%18.26%20.39%21.82%29.54%29.54%29.54%29.54%29.54%
EBIAT 1,136.221,179.621,258.721,338.951,386.861,486.031,770.241,256.551,679.801,759.311,842.581,929.802,021.14
Depreciation 227.25251.30269.92297.40323.05345.08369.96408.20379.93397.92416.75436.48457.14
Accounts Receivable --29.26-46.97-39.816.9522.60-50.86-55.7842.20-15.27-15.99-16.75-17.54
Inventories --279.09-281.54-210.28-250.17-61.58-375.44-154.17-70.67-215.08-225.26-235.92-247.09
Accounts Payable -301.67254.97231.6973.09240.43455.54291.41-28.10242.73254.22266.26278.86
Capital Expenditure -414.45-449.20-490.58-498.79-553.83-522.25-496.05457.74-480.82-503.58-527.42-552.38-578.53
UFCF 949.02975.04964.521,119.16985.941,510.311,673.382,203.941,522.351,666.031,744.891,827.481,913.98
WACC
PV UFCF 1,287.701,296.091,248.451,202.561,158.35
SUM PV UFCF 6,733.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,990.54
Terminal Value 42,083.31
Present Value of Terminal Value 27,692.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 34,426.37
Net Debt 3,986.40
Equity Value 30,439.96
Shares Outstanding 23.54
Equity Value Per Share 1,293.12