Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AutoZone Inc. (AZO)
Consumer Cyclical
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,147.53 | 9,475.01 | 10,186.58 | 10,634.79 | 10,887.90 | 11,219.98 | 11,862.89 | 12,389.60 | 12,939.70 | 13,514.22 | 14,114.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,000.56 | 2,081.66 | 2,222.71 | 2,357.73 | 2,402.96 | 2,156.48 | 2,586.11 | 2,671.20 | 2,789.80 | 2,913.67 | 3,043.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,773.71 | 1,830.57 | 1,952.77 | 2,059.96 | 2,079.59 | 1,810.91 | 2,215.99 | 2,321.81 | 2,424.90 | 2,532.57 | 2,645.01 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 226.86 | 251.09 | 269.94 | 297.77 | 323.37 | 345.58 | 370.12 | 349.39 | 364.90 | 381.10 | 398.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 141.79 | 124.12 | 175.21 | 189.30 | 292.88 | 217.67 | 176.76 | 220.53 | 230.33 | 240.55 | 251.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 171.97 | 200.87 | 247.53 | 288.20 | 280.91 | 258.06 | 308.44 | 293.63 | 306.67 | 320.29 | 334.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,861.35 | 3,140.02 | 3,421.67 | 3,631.78 | 3,882.63 | 3,943.82 | 4,319.28 | 4,237.24 | 4,425.38 | 4,621.86 | 4,827.07 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3,307.75 | 3,609.03 | 3,863.77 | 4,095.46 | 4,168.98 | 4,409.45 | 4,864.97 | 4,766.28 | 4,977.90 | 5,198.92 | 5,429.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -404.32 | -433.96 | -478.77 | -486.01 | -550.93 | -521.73 | -489.94 | -568.68 | -593.93 | -620.30 | -647.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1,154.58 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.97 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.39 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.97 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.43 |
| Total Debt | 5,206.34 |
| Total Equity | 28,825.24 |
| Total Capital | 34,031.59 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,147.53 | 9,475.01 | 10,186.58 | 10,634.79 | 10,887.90 | 11,219.98 | 11,862.89 | 12,389.60 | 12,939.70 | 13,514.22 | 14,114.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,000.56 | 2,081.66 | 2,222.71 | 2,357.73 | 2,402.96 | 2,156.48 | 2,586.11 | 2,671.20 | 2,789.80 | 2,913.67 | 3,043.03 |
| EBIT | 1,773.71 | 1,830.57 | 1,952.77 | 2,059.96 | 2,079.59 | 1,810.91 | 2,215.99 | 2,321.81 | 2,424.90 | 2,532.57 | 2,645.01 |
| Tax Rate | 35.98% | 35.66% | 35.64% | 35.12% | 33.48% | 18.26% | 20.39% | 30.65% | 30.65% | 30.65% | 30.65% |
| EBIAT | 1,135.58 | 1,177.74 | 1,256.89 | 1,336.54 | 1,383.38 | 1,480.23 | 1,764.23 | 1,610.28 | 1,681.78 | 1,756.45 | 1,834.44 |
| Depreciation | 226.86 | 251.09 | 269.94 | 297.77 | 323.37 | 345.58 | 370.12 | 349.39 | 364.90 | 381.10 | 398.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -28.90 | -46.66 | -40.67 | 7.30 | 22.85 | -50.38 | 14.80 | -13.04 | -13.62 | -14.22 |
| Inventories | - | -278.67 | -281.66 | -210.11 | -250.84 | -61.20 | -375.45 | 82.03 | -188.13 | -196.49 | -205.21 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 301.29 | 254.74 | 231.69 | 73.52 | 240.48 | 455.52 | -98.69 | 211.62 | 221.02 | 230.83 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 29.63 | 44.81 | 7.24 | 64.92 | -29.20 | -31.79 | 78.75 | 25.25 | 26.37 | 27.54 |
| UFCF | 1,362.44 | 1,452.18 | 1,498.07 | 1,622.47 | 1,601.64 | 1,998.74 | 2,132.25 | 2,036.56 | 2,082.38 | 2,174.84 | 2,271.40 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,905.11 | 1,822.24 | 1,780.30 | 1,739.33 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 13,379.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,362.26 |
| Terminal Value | 81,457.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 58,349.95 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 71,729.83 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,029.59 |
| Equity Value | 66,700.24 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.97 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2,671.64 |