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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,544.908,464.2912,307.0815,639.8322,968.6639,593.3756,246.3583,098.35122,769.51181,379.67267,970.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,007.254,894.056,125.2313,240.689,490.6514,974.2118,595.0440,443.9759,751.9288,277.48130,421.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,856.994,627.435,399.1112,657.328,723.5013,584.4916,362.0637,319.4755,135.7981,457.61120,345.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 150.27266.63726.12583.37767.151,389.732,232.983,124.504,616.136,819.8810,075.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 6,062.799,387.7420,720.1917,890.4021,884.5433,254.4730,322.4187,394.54129,116.69190,757.00281,824.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -353.76-770.25-1,244.25-1,676.59-1,596.32-3,104.12-5,298.41-7,188.01-10,619.56-15,689.34-23,179.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 175.26
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,131.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.85
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.74
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.78
Total Debt 16,691.64
Total Equity 548,903.86
Total Capital 565,595.50
Debt Weighting 2.95
Equity Weighting 97.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,544.908,464.2912,307.0815,639.8322,968.6639,593.3756,246.3583,098.35122,769.51181,379.67267,970.32
EBITDA 2,007.254,894.056,125.2313,240.689,490.6514,974.2118,595.0440,443.9759,751.9288,277.48130,421.16
EBIT 1,856.994,627.435,399.1112,657.328,723.5013,584.4916,362.0637,319.4755,135.7981,457.61120,345.47
Tax Rate 14.59%12.06%20.91%10.57%23.98%22.12%15.85%17.15%17.15%17.15%17.15%
EBIAT 1,586.134,069.574,269.9111,319.026,631.7210,580.2613,768.7730,917.9745,678.2167,484.9999,702.32
Depreciation 150.27266.63726.12583.37767.151,389.732,232.983,124.504,616.136,819.8810,075.68
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure -416.49474.00432.34-80.271,507.802,194.291,889.603,431.555,069.787,490.09
UFCF 1,736.394,752.685,470.0212,334.737,318.6013,477.7818,196.0335,932.0753,725.9079,374.64117,268.10
WACC
PV UFCF 24,832.6630,867.0537,910.8746,562.07
SUM PV UFCF 72,378.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 20.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) 121,958.82
Terminal Value 748,672.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 297,265.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 369,643.93
Net Debt -13,630.76
Equity Value 383,274.70
Shares Outstanding 3,131.94
Equity Value Per Share 122.38