Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 5,544.90 | 8,464.29 | 12,307.08 | 15,639.83 | 22,968.66 | 39,593.37 | 56,246.35 | 83,098.35 | 122,769.51 | 181,379.67 | 267,970.32 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,007.25 | 4,894.05 | 6,125.23 | 13,240.68 | 9,490.65 | 14,974.21 | 18,595.04 | 40,443.97 | 59,751.92 | 88,277.48 | 130,421.16 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 1,856.99 | 4,627.43 | 5,399.11 | 12,657.32 | 8,723.50 | 13,584.49 | 16,362.06 | 37,319.47 | 55,135.79 | 81,457.61 | 120,345.47 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 150.27 | 266.63 | 726.12 | 583.37 | 767.15 | 1,389.73 | 2,232.98 | 3,124.50 | 4,616.13 | 6,819.88 | 10,075.68 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 6,062.79 | 9,387.74 | 20,720.19 | 17,890.40 | 21,884.54 | 33,254.47 | 30,322.41 | 87,394.54 | 129,116.69 | 190,757.00 | 281,824.39 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -353.76 | -770.25 | -1,244.25 | -1,676.59 | -1,596.32 | -3,104.12 | -5,298.41 | -7,188.01 | -10,619.56 | -15,689.34 | -23,179.43 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 194.66 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,080.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 15.85 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.74 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 20.78 |
Total Debt | 16,691.64 |
Total Equity | 599,669.01 |
Total Capital | 616,360.66 |
Debt Weighting | 2.71 |
Equity Weighting | 97.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 5,544.90 | 8,464.29 | 12,307.08 | 15,639.83 | 22,968.66 | 39,593.37 | 56,246.35 | 83,098.35 | 122,769.51 | 181,379.67 | 267,970.32 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,007.25 | 4,894.05 | 6,125.23 | 13,240.68 | 9,490.65 | 14,974.21 | 18,595.04 | 40,443.97 | 59,751.92 | 88,277.48 | 130,421.16 |
EBIT | 1,856.99 | 4,627.43 | 5,399.11 | 12,657.32 | 8,723.50 | 13,584.49 | 16,362.06 | 37,319.47 | 55,135.79 | 81,457.61 | 120,345.47 |
Tax Rate | 14.59% | 12.06% | 20.91% | 10.57% | 23.98% | 22.12% | 15.85% | 17.15% | 17.15% | 17.15% | 17.15% |
EBIAT | 1,586.13 | 4,069.57 | 4,269.91 | 11,319.02 | 6,631.72 | 10,580.26 | 13,768.77 | 30,917.97 | 45,678.21 | 67,484.99 | 99,702.32 |
Depreciation | 150.27 | 266.63 | 726.12 | 583.37 | 767.15 | 1,389.73 | 2,232.98 | 3,124.50 | 4,616.13 | 6,819.88 | 10,075.68 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Expenditure | - | 416.49 | 474.00 | 432.34 | -80.27 | 1,507.80 | 2,194.29 | 1,889.60 | 3,431.55 | 5,069.78 | 7,490.09 |
UFCF | 1,736.39 | 4,752.68 | 5,470.02 | 12,334.73 | 7,318.60 | 13,477.78 | 18,196.03 | 35,932.07 | 53,725.90 | 79,374.64 | 117,268.10 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 24,816.15 | 30,836.28 | 37,860.48 | 46,484.73 | |||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 72,189.64 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 20.33 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 121,958.82 |
Terminal Value | 746,839.10 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 296,044.82 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 368,234.46 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -13,630.76 |
Equity Value | 381,865.22 |
Shares Outstanding | 3,080.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | 123.96 |