Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
Healthcare
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,932.20 | 9,703.00 | 10,763.54 | 11,448.10 | 12,273.51 | 13,452.99 | 15,446.72 | 17,735.93 | 20,364.39 | 23,382.40 | 26,847.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,994.71 | 4,612.81 | 5,308.58 | 5,623.31 | 6,079.07 | 6,873.13 | 7,460.77 | 8,566.45 | 9,836.00 | 11,293.70 | 12,967.42 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 2,463.01 | 3,924.86 | 4,707.97 | 4,941.00 | 4,997.77 | 5,856.09 | 6,362.51 | 7,305.43 | 8,388.09 | 9,631.21 | 11,058.55 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 531.70 | 687.94 | 600.61 | 682.31 | 1,081.30 | 1,017.05 | 1,098.26 | 1,261.02 | 1,447.91 | 1,662.49 | 1,908.87 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,222.84 | 1,845.51 | 3,428.19 | 4,895.21 | 3,689.42 | 3,538.14 | 4,315.81 | 4,955.42 | 5,689.81 | 6,533.04 | 7,501.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,077.26 | 1,575.77 | 1,541.34 | 1,742.40 | 2,319.69 | 2,484.77 | 2,540.99 | 2,917.56 | 3,349.94 | 3,846.40 | 4,416.44 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 659.25 | 804.38 | 893.37 | 1,001.71 | 902.10 | 929.60 | 1,263.54 | 1,450.80 | 1,665.81 | 1,912.68 | 2,196.14 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 219.75 | 228.99 | 266.94 | 279.33 | 395.21 | 369.96 | 423.24 | 485.96 | 557.98 | 640.68 | 735.63 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -246.09 | -316.32 | -658.73 | -728.10 | -1,842.25 | -773.55 | -1,030.30 | -1,182.99 | -1,358.31 | -1,559.61 | -1,790.74 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 235.85 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 205.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.34 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.17 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.32 |
| Total Debt | 5,936.50 |
| Total Equity | 48,420.00 |
| Total Capital | 54,356.50 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.92 |
| Equity Weighting | 89.08 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,932.20 | 9,703.00 | 10,763.54 | 11,448.10 | 12,273.51 | 13,452.99 | 15,446.72 | 17,735.93 | 20,364.39 | 23,382.40 | 26,847.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,994.71 | 4,612.81 | 5,308.58 | 5,623.31 | 6,079.07 | 6,873.13 | 7,460.77 | 8,566.45 | 9,836.00 | 11,293.70 | 12,967.42 |
| EBIT | 2,463.01 | 3,924.86 | 4,707.97 | 4,941.00 | 4,997.77 | 5,856.09 | 6,362.51 | 7,305.43 | 8,388.09 | 9,631.21 | 11,058.55 |
| Tax Rate | 24.40% | 25.22% | 24.67% | 25.05% | 49.20% | 24.34% | 28.81% | 28.81% | 28.81% | 28.81% | 28.81% |
| EBIAT | 1,862.08 | 2,934.92 | 3,546.53 | 3,703.47 | 2,539.09 | 4,430.54 | 4,529.31 | 5,200.55 | 5,971.28 | 6,856.22 | 7,872.31 |
| Depreciation | 531.70 | 687.94 | 600.61 | 682.31 | 1,081.30 | 1,017.05 | 1,098.26 | 1,261.02 | 1,447.91 | 1,662.49 | 1,908.87 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -498.50 | 34.43 | -201.06 | -577.29 | -165.07 | -56.22 | -376.57 | -432.38 | -496.46 | -570.04 |
| Inventories | - | -145.13 | -88.99 | -108.34 | 99.61 | -27.50 | -333.94 | -187.26 | -215.01 | -246.87 | -283.46 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.24 | 37.94 | 12.40 | 115.87 | -25.25 | 53.28 | 62.72 | 72.02 | 82.69 | 94.95 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 70.22 | 342.41 | 69.37 | 1,114.15 | -1,068.71 | 256.75 | 152.69 | 175.32 | 201.30 | 231.13 |
| UFCF | 2,393.78 | 3,058.70 | 4,472.92 | 4,158.15 | 4,372.72 | 4,161.06 | 5,547.45 | 6,113.16 | 7,019.13 | 8,059.37 | 9,253.76 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 5,061.08 | 5,088.22 | 5,330.07 | 5,583.42 | 5,848.81 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 31,688.32 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.61 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 9,623.92 |
| Terminal Value | 171,549.29 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 108,427.15 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 140,115.46 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,398.36 |
| Equity Value | 137,717.10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 205.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 670.81 |