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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Biogen Inc.

Biogen Inc. (BIIB)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,932.209,703.0010,763.5411,448.1012,273.5113,452.9915,446.7217,735.9320,364.3923,382.4026,847.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,994.714,612.815,308.585,623.316,079.076,873.137,460.778,566.459,836.0011,293.7012,967.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,463.013,924.864,707.974,941.004,997.775,856.096,362.517,305.438,388.099,631.2111,058.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 531.70687.94600.61682.311,081.301,017.051,098.261,261.021,447.911,662.491,908.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,222.841,845.513,428.194,895.213,689.423,538.144,315.814,955.425,689.816,533.047,501.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,077.261,575.771,541.341,742.402,319.692,484.772,540.992,917.563,349.943,846.404,416.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 659.25804.38893.371,001.71902.10929.601,263.541,450.801,665.811,912.682,196.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 219.75228.99266.94279.33395.21369.96423.24485.96557.98640.68735.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -246.09-316.32-658.73-728.10-1,842.25-773.55-1,030.30-1,182.99-1,358.31-1,559.61-1,790.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 235.85
Diluted Shares Outstanding 205.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.34
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.32
Total Debt 5,936.50
Total Equity 48,420.00
Total Capital 54,356.50
Debt Weighting 10.92
Equity Weighting 89.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,932.209,703.0010,763.5411,448.1012,273.5113,452.9915,446.7217,735.9320,364.3923,382.4026,847.67
EBITDA 2,994.714,612.815,308.585,623.316,079.076,873.137,460.778,566.459,836.0011,293.7012,967.42
EBIT 2,463.013,924.864,707.974,941.004,997.775,856.096,362.517,305.438,388.099,631.2111,058.55
Tax Rate 24.40%25.22%24.67%25.05%49.20%24.34%28.81%28.81%28.81%28.81%28.81%
EBIAT 1,862.082,934.923,546.533,703.472,539.094,430.544,529.315,200.555,971.286,856.227,872.31
Depreciation 531.70687.94600.61682.311,081.301,017.051,098.261,261.021,447.911,662.491,908.87
Accounts Receivable --498.5034.43-201.06-577.29-165.07-56.22-376.57-432.38-496.46-570.04
Inventories --145.13-88.99-108.3499.61-27.50-333.94-187.26-215.01-246.87-283.46
Accounts Payable -9.2437.9412.40115.87-25.2553.2862.7272.0282.6994.95
Capital Expenditure -70.22342.4169.371,114.15-1,068.71256.75152.69175.32201.30231.13
UFCF 2,393.783,058.704,472.924,158.154,372.724,161.065,547.456,113.167,019.138,059.379,253.76
WACC
PV UFCF 5,061.085,088.225,330.075,583.425,848.81
SUM PV UFCF 31,688.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,623.92
Terminal Value 171,549.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 108,427.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 140,115.46
Net Debt 2,398.36
Equity Value 137,717.10
Shares Outstanding 205.30
Equity Value Per Share 670.81