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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Booking Holdings Inc.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,793.318,442.049,223.7710,742.9312,680.9514,527.3016,927.2119,723.5922,981.9226,778.5431,202.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,593.683,341.363,605.573,292.714,979.815,825.456,400.187,457.498,689.4710,124.9711,797.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,412.303,073.753,258.762,907.044,538.515,340.245,834.816,798.727,921.879,230.5610,755.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 181.38267.61346.81385.67441.30485.21565.37658.77767.60894.401,042.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 6,752.554,291.092,648.154,300.397,401.876,284.519,044.2110,538.3112,279.2414,307.7716,671.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 535.99644.13644.74860.511,217.371,522.461,426.961,662.701,937.382,257.432,630.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 247.28281.12322.83418.97667.021,134.58773.57901.371,050.271,223.781,425.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 84.24131.70174.33220.23287.86441.63340.24396.44461.94538.25627.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,000.24
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.31
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.82
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.18
Total Debt 8,649.00
Total Equity 94,903.39
Total Capital 103,552.39
Debt Weighting 8.35
Equity Weighting 91.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,793.318,442.049,223.7710,742.9312,680.9514,527.3016,927.2119,723.5922,981.9226,778.5431,202.35
EBITDA 2,593.683,341.363,605.573,292.714,979.815,825.456,400.187,457.498,689.4710,124.9711,797.61
EBIT 2,412.303,073.753,258.762,907.044,538.515,340.245,834.816,798.727,921.879,230.5610,755.45
Tax Rate 17.58%18.99%18.44%21.31%46.78%17.31%23.40%23.40%23.40%23.40%23.40%
EBIAT 1,988.192,490.042,657.742,287.482,415.374,415.774,469.295,207.616,067.917,070.338,238.34
Depreciation 181.38267.61346.81385.67441.30485.21565.37658.77767.60894.401,042.16
Accounts Receivable --108.14-0.61-215.77-356.86-305.0995.50-235.73-274.68-320.05-372.93
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -33.8441.7196.14248.04467.56-361.01127.79148.91173.51202.17
Capital Expenditure --47.46-42.63-45.90-67.63-153.77101.39-56.21-65.49-76.31-88.92
UFCF 2,169.572,635.913,003.022,507.632,680.224,909.694,870.545,702.236,644.247,741.879,020.83
WACC
PV UFCF 4,870.545,156.195,432.675,723.986,030.91
SUM PV UFCF 25,769.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,381.66
Terminal Value 142,362.04
Present Value of Terminal Value 86,062.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 111,832.65
Net Debt 2,364.49
Equity Value 109,468.16
Shares Outstanding 47.45
Equity Value Per Share 2,307.22