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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Booking Holdings Inc.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,793.318,442.049,223.7710,742.9312,680.9514,527.3016,927.2119,723.5922,981.9226,778.5431,202.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,497.903,285.643,561.303,230.405,016.595,530.546,263.077,297.738,503.319,908.0611,544.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,379.703,077.973,289.202,921.004,653.915,104.895,816.196,777.027,896.599,201.1110,721.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 118.20207.67272.10309.40362.68425.65446.88520.70606.72706.95823.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 6,763.424,291.932,648.154,300.397,401.876,284.519,049.2910,544.2312,286.1414,315.8116,680.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 535.99644.13644.74860.511,217.371,522.461,426.961,662.701,937.382,257.432,630.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 247.28281.12322.83418.97668.291,134.58775.27903.341,052.571,226.461,429.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -84.24-131.70-174.33-267.50-287.86-441.63-352.09-410.25-478.02-556.99-649.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,919.84
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.31
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.82
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.73
Total Debt 8,649.00
Total Equity 91,088.73
Total Capital 99,737.73
Debt Weighting 8.67
Equity Weighting 91.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,793.318,442.049,223.7710,742.9312,680.9514,527.3016,927.2119,723.5922,981.9226,778.5431,202.35
EBITDA 2,497.903,285.643,561.303,230.405,016.595,530.546,263.077,297.738,503.319,908.0611,544.87
EBIT 2,379.703,077.973,289.202,921.004,653.915,104.895,816.196,777.027,896.599,201.1110,721.13
Tax Rate 17.58%18.99%18.44%21.30%46.78%17.31%23.40%23.40%23.40%23.40%23.40%
EBIAT 1,961.312,493.462,682.572,298.692,476.654,221.174,455.075,191.046,048.607,047.838,212.14
Depreciation 118.20207.67272.10309.40362.68425.65446.88520.70606.72706.95823.74
Accounts Receivable --108.14-0.61-215.77-356.86-305.0995.50-235.73-274.68-320.05-372.93
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -33.8441.7196.14249.31466.30-359.32128.07149.23173.88202.61
Capital Expenditure -47.4642.6393.1720.36153.77-89.5458.1667.7778.9792.02
UFCF 2,079.522,674.303,038.402,581.632,752.144,961.804,548.585,662.256,597.657,687.598,957.58
WACC
PV UFCF 4,129.444,666.814,936.695,222.185,524.18
SUM PV UFCF 26,299.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,315.88
Terminal Value 151,477.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 93,417.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 119,716.97
Net Debt 2,364.49
Equity Value 117,352.48
Shares Outstanding 47.45
Equity Value Per Share 2,473.39