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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Boston Scientific Corporation

Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,143.007,380.157,476.838,386.019,047.679,823.0510,476.2811,172.9611,915.9612,708.3713,553.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 790.02431.74403.001,225.202,004.962,556.941,551.541,654.711,764.751,882.112,007.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 100.72-292.99-366.36410.081,160.821,663.04540.58576.52614.86655.75699.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 689.30724.73769.37815.12844.15893.901,010.961,078.191,149.891,226.361,307.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 217.15586.72319.26196.23188.19146.36379.24404.46431.36460.04490.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,307.171,183.041,274.801,471.741,548.061,608.031,762.111,879.292,004.262,137.552,279.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 897.16946.131,016.10955.171,077.581,166.001,290.681,376.511,468.051,565.671,669.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 245.72262.00209.35446.97530.19348.72442.10471.50502.85536.29571.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -192.15-259.04-246.74-347.18-319.38-301.57-367.72-392.17-418.25-446.06-475.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,401.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -17.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.93
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.31
Total Debt 4,803.00
Total Equity 59,993.93
Total Capital 64,796.93
Debt Weighting 7.41
Equity Weighting 92.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,143.007,380.157,476.838,386.019,047.679,823.0510,476.2811,172.9611,915.9612,708.3713,553.48
EBITDA 790.02431.74403.001,225.202,004.962,556.941,551.541,654.711,764.751,882.112,007.27
EBIT 100.72-292.99-366.36410.081,160.821,663.04540.58576.52614.86655.75699.36
Tax Rate 45.74%76.62%63.23%-96.05%88.84%-17.51%26.81%26.81%26.81%26.81%26.81%
EBIAT 54.65-68.50-134.71803.93129.531,954.25395.63421.94450.00479.93511.84
Depreciation 689.30724.73769.37815.12844.15893.901,010.961,078.191,149.891,226.361,307.91
Accounts Receivable -124.13-91.76-196.95-76.31-59.98-154.08-117.18-124.97-133.28-142.15
Inventories --48.97-69.9760.93-122.41-88.42-124.68-85.83-91.54-97.63-104.12
Accounts Payable -16.28-52.64237.6283.22-181.4793.3829.4031.3533.4435.66
Capital Expenditure -66.90-12.31100.45-27.80-17.8166.1524.4526.0827.8129.66
UFCF 743.95814.56407.981,821.11830.382,500.461,287.371,350.971,440.811,536.631,638.81
WACC
PV UFCF 1,180.531,136.051,111.041,086.591,062.68
SUM PV UFCF 8,311.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,704.37
Terminal Value 33,749.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 21,884.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 30,195.85
Net Debt 4,656.64
Equity Value 25,539.22
Shares Outstanding 1,401.40
Equity Value Per Share 18.22

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
11.05 (%) 9.83 Sell 10.64 Sell 11.62 Sell 12.84 Sell 14.41 Sell 16.49 Sell 19.41 Sell 23.76 Sell 30.97 Sell
10.55 (%) 9.36 Sell 10.08 Sell 10.95 Sell 12.02 Sell 13.37 Sell 15.14 Sell 17.54 Sell 21.00 Sell 26.42 Sell
10.05 (%) 8.93 Sell 9.58 Sell 10.35 Sell 11.29 Sell 12.47 Sell 13.98 Sell 15.99 Sell 18.80 Sell 23.00 Sell
9.55 (%) 8.54 Sell 9.12 Sell 9.82 Sell 10.65 Sell 11.68 Sell 12.99 Sell 14.69 Sell 17.01 Sell 20.34 Sell
9.05 (%) 8.19 Sell 8.71 Sell 9.33 Sell 10.08 Sell 10.99 Sell 12.12 Sell 13.58 Sell 15.52 Sell 18.22 Sell
8.55 (%) 7.86 Sell 8.34 Sell 8.90 Sell 9.56 Sell 10.37 Sell 11.36 Sell 12.62 Sell 14.26 Sell 16.50 Sell
8.05 (%) 7.56 Sell 7.99 Sell 8.50 Sell 9.10 Sell 9.82 Sell 10.69 Sell 11.79 Sell 13.19 Sell 15.06 Sell
7.55 (%) 7.28 Sell 7.68 Sell 8.14 Sell 8.68 Sell 9.32 Sell 10.10 Sell 11.06 Sell 12.27 Sell 13.85 Sell
7.05 (%) 7.02 Sell 7.39 Sell 7.81 Sell 8.30 Sell 8.87 Sell 9.57 Sell 10.41 Sell 11.47 Sell 12.82 Sell