Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Blackstone Group L.P. Representing Limited Partnership Interests (BX)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 6,613.17 | 7,484.78 | 4,646.55 | 5,146.52 | 7,145.43 | 6,833.89 | 7,114.08 | 7,405.76 | 7,709.39 | 8,025.48 | 8,354.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,630.81 | 2,099.48 | 1,146.30 | 1,407.06 | 2,458.74 | 2,013.95 | 1,999.06 | 2,081.02 | 2,166.34 | 2,255.16 | 2,347.62 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 1,534.92 | 1,997.69 | 1,045.01 | 1,324.20 | 2,412.30 | 1,955.18 | 1,903.02 | 1,981.04 | 2,062.26 | 2,146.82 | 2,234.84 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 95.89 | 101.79 | 101.29 | 82.86 | 46.45 | 58.77 | 96.04 | 99.98 | 104.08 | 108.34 | 112.79 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | - | - | 4,261.35 | 4,679.22 | 5,914.27 | 4,752.97 | 5,957.33 | 6,201.58 | 6,455.85 | 6,720.54 | 6,996.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,080.50 | 1,687.82 | 1,853.97 | 2,215.06 | 2,903.19 | 2,630.36 | 2,561.78 | 2,666.81 | 2,776.15 | 2,889.98 | 3,008.46 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,308.66 | 2,684.79 | 1,931.57 | 2,403.43 | 2,980.36 | 1,911.44 | 2,711.89 | 2,823.08 | 2,938.82 | 3,059.31 | 3,184.74 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -25.79 | -29.94 | -59.48 | -21.62 | -24.29 | -18.45 | -36.99 | -38.51 | -40.09 | -41.73 | -43.44 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 52.99 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 678.85 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 13.92 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.65 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.68 |
Total Debt | 9,952.00 |
Total Equity | 35,972.27 |
Total Capital | 45,924.27 |
Debt Weighting | 21.67 |
Equity Weighting | 78.33 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 6,613.17 | 7,484.78 | 4,646.55 | 5,146.52 | 7,145.43 | 6,833.89 | 7,114.08 | 7,405.76 | 7,709.39 | 8,025.48 | 8,354.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,630.81 | 2,099.48 | 1,146.30 | 1,407.06 | 2,458.74 | 2,013.95 | 1,999.06 | 2,081.02 | 2,166.34 | 2,255.16 | 2,347.62 |
EBIT | 1,534.92 | 1,997.69 | 1,045.01 | 1,324.20 | 2,412.30 | 1,955.18 | 1,903.02 | 1,981.04 | 2,062.26 | 2,146.82 | 2,234.84 |
Tax Rate | 17.92% | 15.52% | 21.15% | 11.30% | 33.56% | 13.92% | 18.90% | 18.90% | 18.90% | 18.90% | 18.90% |
EBIAT | 1,259.91 | 1,687.59 | 823.98 | 1,174.57 | 1,602.78 | 1,682.95 | 1,543.44 | 1,606.72 | 1,672.59 | 1,741.17 | 1,812.56 |
Depreciation | 95.89 | 101.79 | 101.29 | 82.86 | 46.45 | 58.77 | 96.04 | 99.98 | 104.08 | 108.34 | 112.79 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 392.68 | -166.16 | -361.09 | -688.13 | 272.82 | 68.58 | -105.03 | -109.34 | -113.82 | -118.49 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 376.13 | -753.22 | 471.85 | 576.93 | -1,068.92 | 800.45 | 111.19 | 115.75 | 120.49 | 125.43 |
Capital Expenditure | - | 4.15 | 29.54 | -37.86 | 2.68 | -5.84 | 18.54 | 1.52 | 1.58 | 1.64 | 1.71 |
UFCF | 1,355.80 | 2,562.35 | 35.44 | 1,330.33 | 1,540.71 | 939.78 | 2,527.05 | 1,714.37 | 1,784.66 | 1,857.83 | 1,934.00 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,263.37 | 1,375.27 | 1,282.27 | 1,195.56 | 1,114.71 | ||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 9,257.58 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.65 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,011.36 |
Terminal Value | 26,292.26 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 15,154.25 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 24,411.82 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,199.03 |
Equity Value | 19,212.79 |
Shares Outstanding | 678.85 |
Equity Value Per Share | 28.30 |