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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Centennial Resource Development Inc.

Centennial Resource Development Inc. (CDEV)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 131.8290.4698.83429.91891.081,826.983,745.857,680.1115,746.5432,285.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34.1390.7457.31272.86612.171,155.932,370.004,859.219,962.8320,426.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -34.830.80-20.34111.22285.6843.1288.40181.25371.62761.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 68.9689.9477.65161.65326.491,112.812,281.604,677.969,591.2219,664.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 13.011.76431,134.00117.7519.781,594,067.423,268,316.436,701,029.1813,739,120.1228,169,317.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 23.1213.0115.0078.80100.60280.26574.611,178.132,415.524,952.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 101.2919.9811.00199.52240.59670.321,374.352,817.835,777.4011,845.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -240.16-198.64-1,376.81-992.32-1,068.67-7,839.74-16,073.81-32,956.14-67,569.97-138,538.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding 276.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.10
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.32
Total Debt 691.63
Total Equity 939.29
Total Capital 1,630.92
Debt Weighting 42.41
Equity Weighting 57.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 131.8290.4698.83429.91891.081,826.983,745.857,680.1115,746.5432,285.13
EBITDA 34.1390.7457.31272.86612.171,155.932,370.004,859.219,962.8320,426.80
EBIT -34.830.80-20.34111.22285.6843.1288.40181.25371.62761.93
Tax Rate 81.33%145.73%83.20%28.37%22.92%72.31%72.31%72.31%72.31%72.31%
EBIAT -6.50-0.36-3.4279.67220.2011.9424.4850.19102.91210.99
Depreciation 68.9689.9477.65161.65326.491,112.812,281.604,677.969,591.2219,664.87
Accounts Receivable -10.11-2.00-63.80-21.80-179.66-294.36-603.52-1,237.39-2,537.02
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --81.31-8.98188.5241.07429.73704.031,443.482,959.576,068.01
Capital Expenditure --41.521,178.17-384.4976.356,771.078,234.0816,882.3234,613.8370,968.74
UFCF 62.45-23.141,241.43-18.45642.318,145.8910,949.8322,450.4446,030.1494,375.59
WACC
PV UFCF 8,145.899,810.8018,022.6533,108.0060,820.11
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -
Terminal Value -
Present Value of Terminal Value -

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 671.85
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 276.26
Equity Value Per Share -