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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


CareDx Inc.

CareDx Inc. (CDNA)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -0.731.91-11.32-36.29-47.56-40.28-45.83-59.43-77.06-99.94-129.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.391.40-12.12-39.21-51.32-44.49-50.49-65.48-84.91-110.11-142.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.660.510.802.923.764.214.676.057.8510.1813.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5.2736.5830.0417.4026.4764.8173.9495.88124.34161.24209.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.272.692.372.772.999.768.9911.6515.1119.6025.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.520.690.775.465.534.956.448.3610.8414.0518.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.621.131.643.063.394.715.547.199.3212.0815.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.73-1.20-0.55-0.18-2.04-1.95-2.52-3.27-4.24-5.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.75
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.98
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.10
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.33
Total Debt -
Total Equity 703.87
Total Capital 703.87
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
EBITDA -0.731.91-11.32-36.29-47.56-40.28-45.83-59.43-77.06-99.94-129.60
EBIT -1.391.40-12.12-39.21-51.32-44.49-50.49-65.48-84.91-110.11-142.80
Tax Rate 0.00%208.62%0.00%3.91%2.99%2.98%36.42%36.42%36.42%36.42%36.42%
EBIAT -1.39-1.52-12.12-37.68-49.78-43.16-32.10-41.63-53.99-70.01-90.79
Depreciation 0.660.510.802.923.764.214.676.057.8510.1813.20
Accounts Receivable --0.420.32-0.40-0.22-6.770.78-2.67-3.46-4.49-5.82
Inventories --0.17-0.08-4.70-0.070.58-1.50-1.91-2.48-3.22-4.17
Accounts Payable -0.510.521.420.331.320.831.642.132.773.59
Capital Expenditure -0.630.47-0.65-0.361.85-0.090.580.750.971.26
UFCF -0.73-0.44-10.10-39.09-46.35-41.97-27.42-37.94-49.20-63.80-82.74
WACC
PV UFCF -24.63-30.61-35.66-41.53-48.38
SUM PV UFCF -177.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) -86.05
Terminal Value -1,173.91
Present Value of Terminal Value -686.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -864.27
Net Debt -64.81
Equity Value -799.46
Shares Outstanding 35.64
Equity Value Per Share -22.43