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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


CareDx Inc.

CareDx Inc. (CDNA)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -0.733.29-10.76-30.29-12.63-8.90-23.46-30.43-39.46-51.17-66.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.391.25-11.93-37.33-20.29-15.58-32.82-42.56-55.19-71.57-92.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.662.041.177.047.666.689.3512.1315.7320.4026.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5.2736.4329.8917.2616.8964.6270.3891.27118.36153.49199.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.272.692.372.772.999.768.9911.6515.1119.6025.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.520.690.775.465.534.956.448.3610.8414.0518.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.621.131.643.063.394.715.547.199.3212.0815.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.100.731.200.550.182.041.812.343.043.945.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.67
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.03
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.10
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.92
Total Debt -
Total Equity 950.49
Total Capital 950.49
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
EBITDA -0.733.29-10.76-30.29-12.63-8.90-23.46-30.43-39.46-51.17-66.36
EBIT -1.391.25-11.93-37.33-20.29-15.58-32.82-42.56-55.19-71.57-92.81
Tax Rate 0.00%208.62%0.00%4.58%3.14%3.03%36.56%36.56%36.56%36.56%36.56%
EBIAT -1.39-1.36-11.93-35.62-19.65-15.11-20.82-27.00-35.01-45.40-58.88
Depreciation 0.662.041.177.047.666.689.3512.1315.7320.4026.45
Accounts Receivable --0.420.32-0.40-0.22-6.770.78-2.67-3.46-4.49-5.82
Inventories --0.17-0.08-4.70-0.070.58-1.50-1.91-2.48-3.22-4.17
Accounts Payable -0.510.521.420.331.320.831.642.132.773.59
Capital Expenditure --0.83-0.470.650.36-1.850.23-0.54-0.70-0.90-1.17
UFCF -0.73-0.23-10.47-31.61-11.59-15.15-11.13-18.34-23.78-30.84-40.00
WACC
PV UFCF -10.21-15.46-18.41-21.91-26.09
SUM PV UFCF -103.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -41.60
Terminal Value -845.43
Present Value of Terminal Value -551.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -654.70
Net Debt -64.62
Equity Value -590.08
Shares Outstanding 35.64
Equity Value Per Share -16.56