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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


CareDx Inc.

CareDx Inc. (CDNA)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -0.731.91-11.32-36.29-47.56-40.28-54.33-70.46-91.37-118.49-153.66
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.391.40-12.12-39.21-51.32-44.49-59.33-76.94-99.77-129.39-167.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.660.510.802.923.764.214.996.488.4010.8914.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5.2736.5830.0417.4026.4764.8183.98108.91141.24183.15237.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.272.692.372.772.999.768.7411.3314.6919.0624.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.520.690.775.465.534.957.269.4112.2115.8320.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.621.131.643.063.394.716.107.9110.2513.3017.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.73-1.20-0.55-0.18-2.04-2.25-2.92-3.79-4.92-6.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.27
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.98
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.10
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.33
Total Debt -
Total Equity 829.32
Total Capital 829.32
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 22.1027.3128.1440.6348.3276.5799.30128.77166.99216.55280.82
EBITDA -0.731.91-11.32-36.29-47.56-40.28-54.33-70.46-91.37-118.49-153.66
EBIT -1.391.40-12.12-39.21-51.32-44.49-59.33-76.94-99.77-129.39-167.79
Tax Rate 0.00%208.62%0.00%3.91%2.99%2.98%36.42%36.42%36.42%36.42%36.42%
EBIAT -1.39-1.52-12.12-37.68-49.78-43.16-37.72-48.92-63.44-82.27-106.69
Depreciation 0.660.510.802.923.764.214.996.488.4010.8914.13
Accounts Receivable --0.420.32-0.40-0.22-6.771.02-2.59-3.36-4.36-5.66
Inventories --0.17-0.08-4.70-0.070.58-2.31-2.15-2.79-3.62-4.70
Accounts Payable -0.510.521.420.331.321.391.812.353.043.95
Capital Expenditure -0.630.47-0.65-0.361.850.220.670.871.131.46
UFCF -0.73-0.44-10.10-39.09-46.35-41.97-32.41-44.71-57.98-75.19-97.51
WACC
PV UFCF -29.11-36.07-42.02-48.95-57.01
SUM PV UFCF -194.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) -101.41
Terminal Value -1,383.50
Present Value of Terminal Value -808.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,003.82
Net Debt -64.81
Equity Value -939.01
Shares Outstanding 35.64
Equity Value Per Share -26.35

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
13.33 (%) -16.26 Sell -17.43 Sell -18.80 Sell -20.44 Sell -22.42 Sell -24.89 Sell -28.02 Sell -32.15 Sell -37.83 Sell
12.83 (%) -15.53 Sell -16.59 Sell -17.83 Sell -19.30 Sell -21.07 Sell -23.23 Sell -25.95 Sell -29.47 Sell -34.19 Sell
12.33 (%) -14.86 Sell -15.83 Sell -16.95 Sell -18.27 Sell -19.85 Sell -21.77 Sell -24.14 Sell -27.17 Sell -31.15 Sell
11.83 (%) -14.24 Sell -15.13 Sell -16.15 Sell -17.34 Sell -18.76 Sell -20.46 Sell -22.55 Sell -25.17 Sell -28.56 Sell
11.33 (%) -13.67 Sell -14.48 Sell -15.41 Sell -16.49 Sell -17.77 Sell -19.29 Sell -21.14 Sell -23.43 Sell -26.35 Sell
10.83 (%) -13.14 Sell -13.88 Sell -14.73 Sell -15.72 Sell -16.87 Sell -18.24 Sell -19.88 Sell -21.90 Sell -24.43 Sell
10.33 (%) -12.64 Sell -13.33 Sell -14.11 Sell -15.01 Sell -16.06 Sell -17.29 Sell -18.76 Sell -20.54 Sell -22.75 Sell
9.83 (%) -12.18 Sell -12.82 Sell -13.54 Sell -14.36 Sell -15.31 Sell -16.42 Sell -17.74 Sell -19.33 Sell -21.27 Sell
9.33 (%) -11.76 Sell -12.34 Sell -13.01 Sell -13.76 Sell -14.63 Sell -15.64 Sell -16.83 Sell -18.24 Sell -19.96 Sell