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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Celgene Corporation

Celgene Corporation (CELG)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,493.907,670.599,256.1111,229.5113,003.7715,282.0318,136.7221,524.6525,545.4630,317.3535,980.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,131.302,872.642,736.113,376.715,306.846,207.566,387.757,580.988,997.1110,677.7712,672.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,757.252,502.922,334.392,871.394,836.105,571.835,566.166,605.927,839.909,304.3911,042.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 374.05369.72401.72505.33470.74635.73821.59975.071,157.211,373.381,629.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5,686.717,546.336,551.477,969.5812,041.496,042.5213,899.9816,496.4919,578.0423,235.2227,575.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,061.101,166.701,420.811,621.541,920.662,066.132,709.633,215.783,816.494,529.415,375.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 340.28392.73443.37497.47540.96458.46808.90960.001,139.331,352.151,604.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 156.50197.90240.66247.05305.59418.73449.79533.81633.53751.87892.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -119.49-150.34-286.01-235.82-279.58-330.09-402.64-477.85-567.11-673.05-798.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 108.3
Diluted Shares Outstanding 716.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.27
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.76
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.04
Total Debt 19,769.00
Total Equity 77,575.29
Total Capital 97,344.29
Debt Weighting 20.31
Equity Weighting 79.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,493.907,670.599,256.1111,229.5113,003.7715,282.0318,136.7221,524.6525,545.4630,317.3535,980.63
EBITDA 2,131.302,872.642,736.113,376.715,306.846,207.566,387.757,580.988,997.1110,677.7712,672.38
EBIT 1,757.252,502.922,334.392,871.394,836.105,571.835,566.166,605.927,839.909,304.3911,042.46
Tax Rate 12.94%14.07%20.81%15.73%31.85%16.27%18.61%18.61%18.61%18.61%18.61%
EBIAT 1,529.862,150.721,848.592,419.863,295.814,665.484,530.265,376.526,380.857,572.798,987.39
Depreciation 374.05369.72401.72505.33470.74635.73821.59975.071,157.211,373.381,629.92
Accounts Receivable --105.59-254.11-200.73-299.12-145.47-643.49-506.16-600.71-712.92-846.09
Inventories --52.45-50.63-54.10-43.4982.50-350.44-151.10-179.33-212.83-252.58
Accounts Payable -41.4042.766.3958.54113.1431.0684.0299.72118.34140.45
Capital Expenditure -30.86135.67-50.1943.7650.5172.5475.2189.26105.94125.72
UFCF 1,903.912,434.652,123.982,626.553,526.255,401.894,461.535,853.566,947.008,244.709,784.81
WACC
PV UFCF 3,926.374,533.504,734.984,945.425,165.20
SUM PV UFCF 21,782.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,176.20
Terminal Value 105,671.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 55,782.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 77,564.08
Net Debt 13,726.48
Equity Value 63,837.59
Shares Outstanding 716.30
Equity Value Per Share 89.12