Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Celgene Corporation

Celgene Corporation (CELG)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,493.907,670.599,256.1111,229.5113,003.7715,282.0318,136.7221,524.6525,545.4630,317.3535,980.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,131.302,872.642,736.113,376.715,306.846,207.566,474.817,684.309,119.7310,823.2912,845.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,757.252,502.922,334.392,871.394,836.105,571.835,696.746,760.898,023.839,522.6811,301.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 374.05369.72401.72505.33470.74635.73778.07923.411,095.901,300.611,543.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5,686.717,546.336,551.477,969.5812,041.496,042.5213,504.6016,027.2619,021.1522,574.3026,791.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,061.101,166.701,420.811,621.541,920.662,066.132,658.843,155.513,744.964,444.525,274.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 340.28392.73443.37497.47540.96458.46779.88925.561,098.451,303.651,547.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 156.50197.90240.66247.05305.59418.73451.60535.96636.08754.90895.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -119.49-150.34-286.01-235.82-279.58-330.09-415.33-492.91-584.99-694.27-823.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 94.13
Diluted Shares Outstanding 733.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.27
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.76
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.04
Total Debt 19,769.00
Total Equity 69,072.59
Total Capital 88,841.59
Debt Weighting 22.25
Equity Weighting 77.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,493.907,670.599,256.1111,229.5113,003.7715,282.0318,136.7221,524.6525,545.4630,317.3535,980.63
EBITDA 2,131.302,872.642,736.113,376.715,306.846,207.566,474.817,684.309,119.7310,823.2912,845.09
EBIT 1,757.252,502.922,334.392,871.394,836.105,571.835,696.746,760.898,023.839,522.6811,301.52
Tax Rate 12.94%14.07%20.81%15.73%31.85%16.27%18.61%18.61%18.61%18.61%18.61%
EBIAT 1,529.862,150.721,848.592,419.863,295.814,665.484,636.555,502.656,530.557,750.459,198.24
Depreciation 374.05369.72401.72505.33470.74635.73778.07923.411,095.901,300.611,543.57
Accounts Receivable --105.59-254.11-200.73-299.12-145.47-592.71-496.67-589.45-699.56-830.24
Inventories --52.45-50.63-54.10-43.4982.50-321.42-145.68-172.89-205.19-243.52
Accounts Payable -41.4042.766.3958.54113.1432.8884.36100.12118.82141.02
Capital Expenditure -30.86135.67-50.1943.7650.5185.2477.5892.08109.28129.69
UFCF 1,903.912,434.652,123.982,626.553,526.255,401.894,618.605,945.657,056.308,374.419,938.75
WACC
PV UFCF 4,072.844,623.534,838.805,064.105,299.89
SUM PV UFCF 22,275.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,336.30
Terminal Value 109,960.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 58,637.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 80,913.03
Net Debt 13,726.48
Equity Value 67,186.55
Shares Outstanding 733.80
Equity Value Per Share 91.56

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
15.40 (%) 60.86 Sell 64.83 Sell 69.39 Sell 74.68 Sell 80.90 Sell 88.32 Sell 97.32 Buy 108.45 Buy 122.60 Buy
14.90 (%) 58.26 Sell 61.91 Sell 66.08 Sell 70.90 Sell 76.52 Sell 83.18 Sell 91.19 Sell 100.99 Buy 113.28 Buy
14.40 (%) 55.84 Sell 59.20 Sell 63.03 Sell 67.43 Sell 72.53 Sell 78.54 Sell 85.69 Sell 94.38 Buy 105.12 Buy
13.90 (%) 53.59 Sell 56.70 Sell 60.22 Sell 64.24 Sell 68.89 Sell 74.32 Sell 80.75 Sell 88.47 Sell 97.93 Buy
13.40 (%) 51.50 Sell 54.37 Sell 57.61 Sell 61.31 Sell 65.55 Sell 70.48 Sell 76.27 Sell 83.18 Sell 91.56 Sell
12.90 (%) 49.54 Sell 52.20 Sell 55.20 Sell 58.60 Sell 62.48 Sell 66.97 Sell 72.21 Sell 78.42 Sell 85.87 Sell
12.40 (%) 47.72 Sell 50.19 Sell 52.96 Sell 56.09 Sell 59.65 Sell 63.75 Sell 68.51 Sell 74.10 Sell 80.77 Sell
11.90 (%) 46.00 Sell 48.30 Sell 50.87 Sell 53.76 Sell 57.04 Sell 60.79 Sell 65.13 Sell 70.19 Sell 76.18 Sell
11.40 (%) 44.40 Sell 46.54 Sell 48.92 Sell 51.60 Sell 54.62 Sell 58.07 Sell 62.03 Sell 66.62 Sell 72.03 Sell