Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chembio Diagnostics, Inc. (CEMI)

$ 3.91
0.58 (+19.73%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 29.5527.6524.2617.8724.0233.4134.4630.4531.3232.2233.1434.0835.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1.61-0.81-2.18-6.43-5.21-6.74-10.69-19.25-6.99-7.19-7.40-7.61-7.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1-1.55-3.55-7.57-6.48-7.65-12.61-21.95-8.53-8.77-9.02-9.28-9.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.610.741.371.141.280.901.922.701.531.581.621.671.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 9.654.615.3810.553.7912.5218.2723.0712.2412.5912.9513.3213.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.598.342.423.382.097.373.663.384.985.125.265.415.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.193.643.583.344.427.859.6012.526.596.776.977.177.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.821.981.261.441.493.623.145.732.802.882.963.053.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.89-1.45-1.03-0.12-1.03-1.47-3.80-4.17-1.82-1.87-1.93-1.98-2.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.91
Beta 1.868
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.329
Total Debt 18.36
Total Equity 78.61
Total Capital 96.97
Debt Weighting 18.94
Equity Weighting 81.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 29.5527.6524.2617.8724.0233.4134.4630.4531.3232.2233.1434.0835.06
EBITDA 1.61-0.81-2.18-6.43-5.21-6.74-10.69-19.25-6.99-7.19-7.40-7.61-7.82
EBIT 1-1.55-3.55-7.57-6.48-7.65-12.61-21.95-8.53-8.77-9.02-9.28-9.54
Tax Rate 47.84%26.64%32.62%-76.87%1.37%0.85%3.53%1.76%4.72%4.72%4.72%4.72%4.72%
EBIAT 0.52-1.14-2.39-13.39-6.39-7.58-12.16-21.56-8.12-8.36-8.59-8.84-9.09
Depreciation 0.610.741.371.141.280.901.922.701.531.581.621.671.72
Accounts Receivable --3.755.92-0.961.30-5.293.710.28-1.60-0.14-0.15-0.15-0.15
Inventories --0.450.060.24-1.09-3.43-1.75-2.925.93-0.19-0.19-0.20-0.20
Accounts Payable -0.16-0.720.180.062.13-0.482.58-2.930.080.080.080.09
Capital Expenditure -0.89-1.45-1.03-0.12-1.03-1.47-3.80-4.17-1.82-1.87-1.93-1.98-2.04
UFCF 0.25-5.883.20-12.91-5.88-14.73-12.56-23.08-7.01-8.90-9.16-9.42-9.69
WACC
PV UFCF -5.30-5.86-5.24-4.69-4.19
SUM PV UFCF -29.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -10.07
Terminal Value -91.75
Present Value of Terminal Value -45.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -74.71
Net Debt -4.70
Equity Value -70.01
Shares Outstanding 20.10
Equity Value Per Share -3.48