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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Chesapeake Energy Corporation

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 19,080.0023,124.9612,764.987,872.169,496.1910,231.199,544.688,904.238,306.767,749.387,229.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,401.766,065.68-16,483.42-3,177.202,372.152,495.39-1,126.27-1,050.70-980.20-914.43-853.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,499.693,149.62-18,712.18-4,284.031,376.951,350.52-2,414.80-2,252.77-2,101.61-1,960.59-1,829.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,902.072,916.062,228.771,106.83995.201,144.871,288.531,202.071,121.411,046.17975.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 912.024,146.31824.62881.684.754.09643.31600.15559.88522.31487.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,222.822,236.181,128.421,057.231,321.871,247.181,109.091,034.67965.25900.48840.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,595.092,048.87944.61672.28654.29763.25755.94705.22657.90613.75572.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,218.80198.87-3,492.50-583.33-1,187.97110.50-989.78-923.37-861.41-803.61-749.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.79
Diluted Shares Outstanding 909.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.11
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 22.03
Total Debt 7,341.00
Total Equity 718.11
Total Capital 8,059.11
Debt Weighting 91.09
Equity Weighting 8.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 19,080.0023,124.9612,764.987,872.169,496.1910,231.199,544.688,904.238,306.767,749.387,229.39
EBITDA 4,401.766,065.68-16,483.42-3,177.202,372.152,495.39-1,126.27-1,050.70-980.20-914.43-853.07
EBIT 1,499.693,149.62-18,712.18-4,284.031,376.951,350.52-2,414.80-2,252.77-2,101.61-1,960.59-1,829.04
Tax Rate 43.08%37.37%23.45%4.15%0.21%-1.16%17.85%17.85%17.85%17.85%17.85%
EBIAT 853.601,972.50-14,323.72-4,106.311,374.051,366.17-1,983.73-1,850.62-1,726.45-1,610.60-1,502.53
Depreciation 2,902.072,916.062,228.771,106.83995.201,144.871,288.531,202.071,121.411,046.17975.97
Accounts Receivable --13.361,107.7671.19-264.6474.69138.0974.4269.4364.7760.42
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -453.78-1,104.26-272.33-18.00108.96-7.31-50.72-47.32-44.14-41.18
Capital Expenditure --3,417.673,691.37-2,909.17604.65-1,298.471,100.28-66.41-61.96-57.80-53.92
UFCF 3,755.661,911.31-8,400.08-6,109.792,691.261,396.21535.86-691.27-644.88-601.61-561.24
WACC
PV UFCF 502.83-608.66-532.82-466.42-408.30
SUM PV UFCF -4,592.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) -583.69
Terminal Value -22,711.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -16,522.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -21,114.78
Net Debt 7,336.91
Equity Value -28,451.68
Shares Outstanding 909.00
Equity Value Per Share -31.30