Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 2,581.06 | 2,585.96 | 2,693.80 | 2,660.39 | 2,476.29 | 2,282.15 | 2,130.85 | 2,066.07 | 2,003.26 | 1,942.36 | 1,883.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 395.93 | 259.37 | 238.67 | 105.62 | 249.86 | 241.45 | 135.10 | 192.56 | 186.70 | 181.03 | 175.52 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 287.53 | 141.19 | 116.37 | -13.30 | 140.65 | 145.14 | 43.68 | 101.86 | 98.76 | 95.76 | 92.85 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 108.40 | 118.18 | 122.30 | 118.92 | 109.20 | 96.31 | 91.41 | 90.70 | 87.94 | 85.27 | 82.68 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 329.34 | 152.57 | 259.95 | 140.20 | 192.41 | 220.23 | 186.02 | 176.24 | 170.88 | 165.68 | 160.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 206.74 | 238.17 | 235.17 | 233.85 | 232.28 | 233.69 | 235.25 | 192.97 | 187.10 | 181.42 | 175.90 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 129.31 | 131.37 | 144.66 | 129.30 | 116.39 | 118.22 | 143.41 | 109.09 | 105.77 | 102.56 | 99.44 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -164.67 | -138.61 | -119.87 | -84.87 | -31.70 | -48.61 | -54.12 | -74.79 | -72.52 | -70.31 | -68.18 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.13 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 122.66 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.78 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.84 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 5.07 |
Total Debt | 57.50 |
Total Equity | 506.59 |
Total Capital | 564.09 |
Debt Weighting | 10.19 |
Equity Weighting | 89.81 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 2,581.06 | 2,585.96 | 2,693.80 | 2,660.39 | 2,476.29 | 2,282.15 | 2,130.85 | 2,066.07 | 2,003.26 | 1,942.36 | 1,883.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 395.93 | 259.37 | 238.67 | 105.62 | 249.86 | 241.45 | 135.10 | 192.56 | 186.70 | 181.03 | 175.52 |
EBIT | 287.53 | 141.19 | 116.37 | -13.30 | 140.65 | 145.14 | 43.68 | 101.86 | 98.76 | 95.76 | 92.85 |
Tax Rate | 37.51% | 53.50% | 44.49% | 113.01% | 34.24% | 29.67% | 17.78% | 47.17% | 47.17% | 47.17% | 47.17% |
EBIAT | 179.66 | 65.66 | 64.60 | 1.73 | 92.49 | 102.09 | 35.92 | 53.81 | 52.17 | 50.59 | 49.05 |
Depreciation | 108.40 | 118.18 | 122.30 | 118.92 | 109.20 | 96.31 | 91.41 | 90.70 | 87.94 | 85.27 | 82.68 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | -31.42 | 3.00 | 1.32 | 1.57 | -1.42 | -1.55 | 42.27 | 5.87 | 5.69 | 5.52 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.06 | 13.29 | -15.36 | -12.91 | 1.83 | 25.19 | -34.32 | -3.32 | -3.22 | -3.12 |
Capital Expenditure | - | -26.06 | -18.73 | -35.01 | -53.17 | 16.91 | 5.51 | 20.67 | -2.27 | -2.20 | -2.14 |
UFCF | 288.07 | 128.40 | 184.46 | 71.60 | 137.19 | 215.72 | 156.48 | 173.14 | 140.39 | 136.13 | 131.99 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 157.13 | 121.38 | 112.12 | 103.56 | |||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,359.15 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.97 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 137.27 |
Terminal Value | 14,151.24 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,103.72 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 12,462.87 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -128.52 |
Equity Value | 12,591.39 |
Shares Outstanding | 122.66 |
Equity Value Per Share | 102.65 |