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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Chico's FAS Inc.

Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,581.062,585.962,693.802,660.392,476.292,282.152,130.852,066.072,003.261,942.361,883.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 395.93259.37238.67105.62249.86241.45135.10192.56186.70181.03175.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 287.53141.19116.37-13.30140.65145.1443.68101.8698.7695.7692.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 108.40118.18122.30118.92109.2096.3191.4190.7087.9485.2782.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 329.34152.57259.95140.20192.41220.23186.02176.24170.88165.68160.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 206.74238.17235.17233.85232.28233.69235.25192.97187.10181.42175.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 129.31131.37144.66129.30116.39118.22143.41109.09105.77102.5699.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -164.67-138.61-119.87-84.87-31.70-48.61-54.12-74.79-72.52-70.31-68.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.21
Diluted Shares Outstanding 122.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.78
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.84
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.07
Total Debt 57.50
Total Equity 393.96
Total Capital 451.46
Debt Weighting 12.74
Equity Weighting 87.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,581.062,585.962,693.802,660.392,476.292,282.152,130.852,066.072,003.261,942.361,883.31
EBITDA 395.93259.37238.67105.62249.86241.45135.10192.56186.70181.03175.52
EBIT 287.53141.19116.37-13.30140.65145.1443.68101.8698.7695.7692.85
Tax Rate 37.51%53.50%44.49%113.01%34.24%29.67%17.78%47.17%47.17%47.17%47.17%
EBIAT 179.6665.6664.601.7392.49102.0935.9253.8152.1750.5949.05
Depreciation 108.40118.18122.30118.92109.2096.3191.4190.7087.9485.2782.68
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories --31.423.001.321.57-1.42-1.5542.275.875.695.52
Accounts Payable -2.0613.29-15.36-12.911.8325.19-34.32-3.32-3.22-3.12
Capital Expenditure --26.06-18.73-35.01-53.1716.915.5120.67-2.27-2.20-2.14
UFCF 288.07128.40184.4671.60137.19215.72156.48173.14140.39136.13131.99
WACC
PV UFCF 157.19121.45112.20103.66
SUM PV UFCF 1,360.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) 137.27
Terminal Value 14,449.17
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,348.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,708.76
Net Debt -128.52
Equity Value 12,837.29
Shares Outstanding 122.73
Equity Value Per Share 104.60

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
6.95 (%) 24.98 Buy 27.29 Buy 30.54 Buy 35.44 Buy 43.66 Buy 60.30 Buy 111.98 Buy -1,903.54 Sell -79.98 Sell
6.45 (%) 23.83 Buy 25.78 Buy 28.45 Buy 32.33 Buy 38.44 Buy 49.55 Buy 75.98 Buy 219.89 Buy -159.50 Sell
5.95 (%) 22.83 Buy 24.50 Buy 26.73 Buy 29.85 Buy 34.56 Buy 42.47 Buy 58.48 Buy 108.20 Buy -1,830.87 Sell
5.45 (%) 21.96 Buy 23.40 Buy 25.28 Buy 27.85 Buy 31.57 Buy 37.46 Buy 48.15 Buy 73.58 Buy 212.06 Buy
4.95 (%) 21.19 Buy 22.44 Buy 24.04 Buy 26.19 Buy 29.20 Buy 33.73 Buy 41.34 Buy 56.75 Buy 104.60 Buy
4.45 (%) 20.51 Buy 21.60 Buy 22.98 Buy 24.79 Buy 27.27 Buy 30.85 Buy 36.52 Buy 46.81 Buy 71.29 Buy
3.95 (%) 19.90 Buy 20.86 Buy 22.06 Buy 23.61 Buy 25.67 Buy 28.57 Buy 32.93 Buy 40.26 Buy 55.09 Buy
3.45 (%) 19.36 Buy 20.21 Buy 21.26 Buy 22.59 Buy 24.33 Buy 26.71 Buy 30.17 Buy 35.62 Buy 45.53 Buy
2.95 (%) 18.87 Buy 19.62 Buy 20.55 Buy 21.70 Buy 23.19 Buy 25.18 Buy 27.97 Buy 32.17 Buy 39.23 Buy