Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS)
Consumer Cyclical
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,581.06 | 2,585.96 | 2,693.80 | 2,660.39 | 2,476.29 | 2,282.15 | 2,130.85 | 2,066.07 | 2,003.26 | 1,942.36 | 1,883.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 395.93 | 259.37 | 238.67 | 105.62 | 249.86 | 241.45 | 135.10 | 192.56 | 186.70 | 181.03 | 175.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 287.53 | 141.19 | 116.37 | -13.30 | 140.65 | 145.14 | 43.68 | 101.86 | 98.76 | 95.76 | 92.85 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 108.40 | 118.18 | 122.30 | 118.92 | 109.20 | 96.31 | 91.41 | 90.70 | 87.94 | 85.27 | 82.68 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 329.34 | 152.57 | 259.95 | 140.20 | 192.41 | 220.23 | 186.02 | 176.24 | 170.88 | 165.68 | 160.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 206.74 | 238.17 | 235.17 | 233.85 | 232.28 | 233.69 | 235.25 | 192.97 | 187.10 | 181.42 | 175.90 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 129.31 | 131.37 | 144.66 | 129.30 | 116.39 | 118.22 | 143.41 | 109.09 | 105.77 | 102.56 | 99.44 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -164.67 | -138.61 | -119.87 | -84.87 | -31.70 | -48.61 | -54.12 | -74.79 | -72.52 | -70.31 | -68.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.21 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 122.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.78 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.84 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.07 |
| Total Debt | 57.50 |
| Total Equity | 393.96 |
| Total Capital | 451.46 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.74 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.26 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,581.06 | 2,585.96 | 2,693.80 | 2,660.39 | 2,476.29 | 2,282.15 | 2,130.85 | 2,066.07 | 2,003.26 | 1,942.36 | 1,883.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 395.93 | 259.37 | 238.67 | 105.62 | 249.86 | 241.45 | 135.10 | 192.56 | 186.70 | 181.03 | 175.52 |
| EBIT | 287.53 | 141.19 | 116.37 | -13.30 | 140.65 | 145.14 | 43.68 | 101.86 | 98.76 | 95.76 | 92.85 |
| Tax Rate | 37.51% | 53.50% | 44.49% | 113.01% | 34.24% | 29.67% | 17.78% | 47.17% | 47.17% | 47.17% | 47.17% |
| EBIAT | 179.66 | 65.66 | 64.60 | 1.73 | 92.49 | 102.09 | 35.92 | 53.81 | 52.17 | 50.59 | 49.05 |
| Depreciation | 108.40 | 118.18 | 122.30 | 118.92 | 109.20 | 96.31 | 91.41 | 90.70 | 87.94 | 85.27 | 82.68 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -31.42 | 3.00 | 1.32 | 1.57 | -1.42 | -1.55 | 42.27 | 5.87 | 5.69 | 5.52 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.06 | 13.29 | -15.36 | -12.91 | 1.83 | 25.19 | -34.32 | -3.32 | -3.22 | -3.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -26.06 | -18.73 | -35.01 | -53.17 | 16.91 | 5.51 | 20.67 | -2.27 | -2.20 | -2.14 |
| UFCF | 288.07 | 128.40 | 184.46 | 71.60 | 137.19 | 215.72 | 156.48 | 173.14 | 140.39 | 136.13 | 131.99 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 157.19 | 121.45 | 112.20 | 103.66 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,360.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 137.27 |
| Terminal Value | 14,449.17 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,348.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 12,708.76 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -128.52 |
| Equity Value | 12,837.29 |
| Shares Outstanding | 122.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 104.60 |
Results Unlevered DCF
| Wacc / Long-term Growth | -4 (%) | -3 (%) | -2 (%) | -1 (%) | 0 (%) | 1 (%) | 2 (%) | 3 (%) | 4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.95 (%) | 24.98 Buy | 27.29 Buy | 30.54 Buy | 35.44 Buy | 43.66 Buy | 60.30 Buy | 111.98 Buy | -1,903.54 Sell | -79.98 Sell |
| 6.45 (%) | 23.83 Buy | 25.78 Buy | 28.45 Buy | 32.33 Buy | 38.44 Buy | 49.55 Buy | 75.98 Buy | 219.89 Buy | -159.50 Sell |
| 5.95 (%) | 22.83 Buy | 24.50 Buy | 26.73 Buy | 29.85 Buy | 34.56 Buy | 42.47 Buy | 58.48 Buy | 108.20 Buy | -1,830.87 Sell |
| 5.45 (%) | 21.96 Buy | 23.40 Buy | 25.28 Buy | 27.85 Buy | 31.57 Buy | 37.46 Buy | 48.15 Buy | 73.58 Buy | 212.06 Buy |
| 4.95 (%) | 21.19 Buy | 22.44 Buy | 24.04 Buy | 26.19 Buy | 29.20 Buy | 33.73 Buy | 41.34 Buy | 56.75 Buy | 104.60 Buy |
| 4.45 (%) | 20.51 Buy | 21.60 Buy | 22.98 Buy | 24.79 Buy | 27.27 Buy | 30.85 Buy | 36.52 Buy | 46.81 Buy | 71.29 Buy |
| 3.95 (%) | 19.90 Buy | 20.86 Buy | 22.06 Buy | 23.61 Buy | 25.67 Buy | 28.57 Buy | 32.93 Buy | 40.26 Buy | 55.09 Buy |
| 3.45 (%) | 19.36 Buy | 20.21 Buy | 21.26 Buy | 22.59 Buy | 24.33 Buy | 26.71 Buy | 30.17 Buy | 35.62 Buy | 45.53 Buy |
| 2.95 (%) | 18.87 Buy | 19.62 Buy | 20.55 Buy | 21.70 Buy | 23.19 Buy | 25.18 Buy | 27.97 Buy | 32.17 Buy | 39.23 Buy |