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Major Indexes

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)

$1055.7
28.99 (+2.82%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,586.086,165.916,805.947,512.398,292.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 628.77821.24893.90180.76434.18460.20820.60862.61952.151,050.981,160.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 532.66710.73763.3734.36270.81258.31444.09625.84690.80762.51841.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 96.12110.51130.53146.41163.38201.88376.50236.77261.35288.48318.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 578.30757.97663.00417.75508.94676.67880.92906.391,000.471,104.321,218.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 24.1134.9238.2640.6040.2962.2780.4462.8969.4276.6384.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.1815.2014.8514.8419.6921.4026.2525.2827.9030.8034.00
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 59.1569.4385.5278.4781.91112.86115.63120.24132.72146.49161.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 199.95252.66257.46258.85216.64287.50334.05365.02402.91444.73490.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,055.7
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.59
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.13
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.09
Total Debt 2,678.37
Total Equity 29,871.03
Total Capital 32,549.41
Debt Weighting 8.23
Equity Weighting 91.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,586.086,165.916,805.947,512.398,292.18
EBITDA 628.77821.24893.90180.76434.18460.20820.60862.61952.151,050.981,160.08
EBIT 532.66710.73763.3734.36270.81258.31444.09625.84690.80762.51841.66
Tax Rate 38.74%37.65%38.22%40.79%36.08%34.23%23.59%35.61%35.61%35.61%35.61%
EBIAT 326.33443.14471.5920.34173.10169.89339.31402.95444.78490.95541.91
Depreciation 96.12110.51130.53146.41163.38201.88376.50236.77261.35288.48318.42
Accounts Receivable --10.81-3.34-2.340.32-21.98-18.1717.55-6.53-7.21-7.95
Inventories --2.020.350.02-4.86-1.71-4.850.97-2.62-2.90-3.20
Accounts Payable -10.2816.09-7.053.4430.952.774.6012.4813.7815.21
Capital Expenditure --52.71-4.80-1.3942.20-70.86-46.55-30.97-37.89-41.82-46.16
UFCF 422.44498.40610.42155.99377.58308.18649.02631.87671.56741.27818.22
WACC
PV UFCF 468.95462.60473.93485.55
SUM PV UFCF 3,670.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 850.95
Terminal Value 22,752.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,672.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,343.75
Net Debt 1,797.45
Equity Value 17,546.30
Shares Outstanding 28.30
Equity Value Per Share 620.12