Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,326.315,831.776,385.216,991.167,654.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 630.38824.94900.20185.06439.11470.41745.15815.87893.29978.061,070.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 534.27714.42769.6738.65275.73268.53566.72620.50679.39743.86814.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 96.12110.51130.53146.41163.38201.88178.43195.36213.90234.20256.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 578.30757.97663.00417.75538.48706.83785.10859.60941.181,030.501,128.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 24.1134.9238.2640.6040.2962.2750.0754.8260.0265.7271.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.1815.2014.8514.8419.6921.4021.3123.3325.5427.9630.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 59.1569.4385.5278.4781.91112.86102.80112.55123.23134.93147.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -199.95-252.66-257.46-258.85-216.64-287.50-314.78-344.66-377.37-413.18-452.39
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 753.47
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 34.23
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.66
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.76
Total Debt -
Total Equity 20,963.80
Total Capital 20,963.80
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,326.315,831.776,385.216,991.167,654.63
EBITDA 630.38824.94900.20185.06439.11470.41745.15815.87893.29978.061,070.88
EBIT 534.27714.42769.6738.65275.73268.53566.72620.50679.39743.86814.45
Tax Rate 38.74%37.65%38.22%40.79%36.08%34.23%37.62%37.62%37.62%37.62%37.62%
EBIAT 327.31445.45475.4822.89176.24176.61353.53387.08423.82464.04508.07
Depreciation 96.12110.51130.53146.41163.38201.88178.43195.36213.90234.20256.43
Accounts Receivable --10.81-3.34-2.340.32-21.9812.20-4.75-5.20-5.70-6.24
Inventories --2.020.350.02-4.86-1.710.10-2.02-2.21-2.42-2.65
Accounts Payable -10.2816.09-7.053.4430.95-10.069.7610.6811.6912.80
Capital Expenditure -52.714.801.39-42.2070.8627.2829.8732.7135.8139.21
UFCF 423.43606.12623.91161.31296.32456.61561.48615.30673.69737.63807.63
WACC
PV UFCF 521.05529.88538.38547.03555.81
SUM PV UFCF 3,747.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 839.93
Terminal Value 22,338.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,373.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,121.35
Net Debt -706.83
Equity Value 19,828.18
Shares Outstanding 27.82
Equity Value Per Share 712.65