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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 58,248.0055,516.1730,933.6124,360.2232,584.2338,726.3537,363.1936,048.0034,779.1133,554.8932,373.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23,613.7419,430.662,737.624,721.015,265.6116,617.4810,140.379,783.439,439.059,106.808,786.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16,181.2911,103.23-6,375.42-4,340.99-1,580.3310,661.371,995.191,924.961,857.201,791.831,728.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7,432.448,327.439,113.049,062.006,845.955,956.118,145.177,858.467,581.857,314.977,057.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 6,517.955,063.072,369.513,658.9010,097.857,625.225,832.395,627.095,429.025,237.925,053.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,486.736,806.284,513.213,412.874,320.674,066.274,931.944,758.344,590.844,429.254,273.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,194.081,332.391,122.891,018.261,058.991,006.891,128.371,088.651,050.331,013.36977.69
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9,313.868,027.644,933.913,654.034,030.673,895.875,219.645,035.914,858.644,687.624,522.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15,534.74-17,082.33-10,050.33-4,869.61-4,591.12-6,750.00-8,806.50-8,496.51-8,197.44-7,908.89-7,630.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 53.19
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,175.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.96
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.80
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.32
Total Debt 14,856.00
Total Equity 62,526.87
Total Capital 77,382.87
Debt Weighting 19.20
Equity Weighting 80.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 58,248.0055,516.1730,933.6124,360.2232,584.2338,726.3537,363.1936,048.0034,779.1133,554.8932,373.76
EBITDA 23,613.7419,430.662,737.624,721.015,265.6116,617.4810,140.379,783.439,439.059,106.808,786.24
EBIT 16,181.2911,103.23-6,375.42-4,340.99-1,580.3310,661.371,995.191,924.961,857.201,791.831,728.76
Tax Rate 41.18%34.28%39.31%35.28%68.06%36.96%42.51%42.51%42.51%42.51%42.51%
EBIAT 9,518.537,296.99-3,869.29-2,809.29-504.746,721.231,147.011,106.631,067.681,030.10993.84
Depreciation 7,432.448,327.439,113.049,062.006,845.955,956.118,145.177,858.467,581.857,314.977,057.48
Accounts Receivable -1,680.452,293.071,100.35-907.80254.40-865.67173.60167.49161.60155.91
Inventories --138.30209.50104.63-40.7352.10-121.4839.7238.3236.9735.67
Accounts Payable --1,286.22-3,093.73-1,279.88376.64-134.801,323.77-183.73-177.26-171.02-165.00
Capital Expenditure -1,547.58-7,032.00-5,180.72-278.492,158.892,056.50-309.99-299.08-288.55-278.39
UFCF 16,950.9817,427.93-2,379.41997.095,490.8215,007.9311,685.298,684.708,379.008,084.067,799.50
WACC
PV UFCF 10,647.197,210.186,338.385,572.004,898.29
SUM PV UFCF 60,674.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8,111.48
Terminal Value 141,069.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 88,595.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 149,269.88
Net Debt 7,230.78
Equity Value 142,039.10
Shares Outstanding 1,175.54
Equity Value Per Share 120.83