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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Cisco Systems Inc.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 48,607.0047,143.9349,161.6949,245.2648,004.2849,329.2049,496.9249,665.2149,834.0750,003.5150,173.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14,271.0212,719.4314,207.7315,743.7115,433.3816,175.0515,027.2715,078.3615,129.6215,181.0715,232.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,811.5010,282.0911,764.3913,591.6913,148.3713,984.8312,651.4112,694.4312,737.5912,780.9012,824.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,459.512,437.342,443.342,152.022,285.002,190.222,375.852,383.932,392.042,400.172,408.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 50,609.6152,075.1860,414.8065,757.2070,494.2946,547.0358,752.8558,952.6159,153.0459,354.1659,555.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,420.3913,228.5913,691.5314,276.2014,742.1215,385.7814,388.7514,437.6814,486.7614,536.0214,585.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,477.651,588.751,627.251,216.361,617.741,844.911,593.801,599.221,604.661,610.111,615.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,030.471,032.451,106.141,053.851,387.321,904.111,272.071,276.401,280.741,285.091,289.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,020.75-1,041.88-1,204.46-1,103.09-955.29-774.47-1,034.49-1,038.00-1,041.53-1,045.07-1,048.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 48.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,881.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 99.16
After-tax Cost of Debt -4.91
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.20
Total Debt 20,331.00
Total Equity 235,703.49
Total Capital 256,034.49
Debt Weighting 7.94
Equity Weighting 92.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 48,607.0047,143.9349,161.6949,245.2648,004.2849,329.2049,496.9249,665.2149,834.0750,003.5150,173.52
EBITDA 14,271.0212,719.4314,207.7315,743.7115,433.3816,175.0515,027.2715,078.3615,129.6215,181.0715,232.68
EBIT 11,811.5010,282.0911,764.3913,591.6913,148.3713,984.8312,651.4112,694.4312,737.5912,780.9012,824.35
Tax Rate 11.08%19.17%19.82%16.88%21.80%99.16%31.32%31.32%31.32%31.32%31.32%
EBIAT 10,502.748,311.409,432.7311,297.3110,282.63117.988,689.448,718.988,748.628,778.378,808.22
Depreciation 2,459.512,437.342,443.342,152.022,285.002,190.222,375.852,383.932,392.042,400.172,408.33
Accounts Receivable -191.81-462.94-584.67-465.91-643.66997.02-48.92-49.09-49.26-49.42
Inventories --111.10-38.50410.89-401.39-227.17251.11-5.42-5.44-5.46-5.47
Accounts Payable -1.9873.69-52.29333.48516.78-632.044.334.344.354.37
Capital Expenditure -21.13162.58-101.37-147.81-180.82260.023.523.533.543.55
UFCF 12,962.2510,852.5711,610.8913,121.8911,886.001,773.3311,941.4011,056.4111,094.0011,131.7211,169.57
WACC
PV UFCF 10,734.818,934.958,059.457,269.736,557.40
SUM PV UFCF 67,272.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,616.35
Terminal Value 160,446.87
Present Value of Terminal Value 94,194.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 161,467.34
Net Debt -26,216.03
Equity Value 187,683.37
Shares Outstanding 4,881.00
Equity Value Per Share 38.45