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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Cisco Systems Inc.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 48,607.0047,143.9349,161.6949,245.2648,004.2849,329.2051,904.1952,501.0853,104.8553,715.5554,333.28
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14,271.0212,719.4314,207.7315,743.7115,433.3816,175.0517,325.6216,165.0816,350.9816,539.0216,729.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,811.5010,282.0911,764.3913,591.6913,148.3713,984.8315,431.1113,734.2813,892.2314,051.9914,213.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,459.512,437.342,443.342,152.022,285.002,190.221,894.502,430.802,458.752,487.032,515.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 50,609.6152,075.1860,414.8065,757.2070,494.2946,547.0333,410.7258,244.7058,914.5259,592.0360,277.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,420.3913,228.5913,691.5314,276.2014,742.1215,385.7815,545.3015,325.0715,501.3015,679.5715,859.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,477.651,588.751,627.251,216.361,617.741,844.911,380.651,648.531,667.491,686.671,706.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,030.471,032.451,106.141,053.851,387.321,904.112,060.601,454.281,471.001,487.921,505.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,020.75-1,041.88-1,204.46-1,103.09-955.29-774.47-887.56-1,071.02-1,083.34-1,095.80-1,108.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,419.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.25
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.96
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.20
Total Debt 14,475.00
Total Equity 197,573.49
Total Capital 212,048.49
Debt Weighting 6.83
Equity Weighting 93.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 48,607.0047,143.9349,161.6949,245.2648,004.2849,329.2051,904.1952,501.0853,104.8553,715.5554,333.28
EBITDA 14,271.0212,719.4314,207.7315,743.7115,433.3816,175.0517,325.6216,165.0816,350.9816,539.0216,729.22
EBIT 11,811.5010,282.0911,764.3913,591.6913,148.3713,984.8315,431.1113,734.2813,892.2314,051.9914,213.59
Tax Rate 11.08%19.17%19.82%16.88%21.80%99.16%20.25%29.73%29.73%29.73%29.73%
EBIAT 10,502.748,311.409,432.7311,297.3110,282.63117.9812,306.989,650.409,761.389,873.649,987.18
Depreciation 2,459.512,437.342,443.342,152.022,285.002,190.221,894.502,430.802,458.752,487.032,515.63
Accounts Receivable -191.81-462.94-584.67-465.91-643.66-159.53220.24-176.24-178.27-180.32
Inventories --111.10-38.50410.89-401.39-227.17464.26-267.88-18.96-19.18-19.40
Accounts Payable -1.9873.69-52.29333.48516.78156.49-606.3216.7216.9217.11
Capital Expenditure -21.13162.58-101.37-147.81-180.82113.09183.4612.3212.4612.60
UFCF 12,962.2510,852.5711,610.8913,121.8911,886.001,773.3314,775.8011,610.7012,053.9812,192.6012,332.82
WACC
PV UFCF 9,315.778,663.057,849.057,111.53
SUM PV UFCF 68,729.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,826.13
Terminal Value 167,881.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 96,806.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 165,535.94
Net Debt -18,935.72
Equity Value 184,471.66
Shares Outstanding 4,419.00
Equity Value Per Share 41.75