Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE)
Energy
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,534.77 | 16,903.52 | 8,336.82 | 8,189.26 | 13,388.61 | 15,441.09 | 16,143.66 | 16,878.19 | 17,646.15 | 18,449.05 | 19,288.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,247.44 | 3,086.58 | 2,233.43 | 744.40 | 4,704.76 | -682.50 | 2,781.55 | 2,908.11 | 3,040.43 | 3,178.77 | 3,323.41 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,525.53 | 1,411.44 | 704.46 | -370.15 | 3,110.18 | -2,260.58 | 795.88 | 832.09 | 869.96 | 909.54 | 950.92 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,721.91 | 1,675.14 | 1,528.97 | 1,114.56 | 1,594.58 | 1,578.08 | 1,985.67 | 2,076.02 | 2,170.48 | 2,269.23 | 2,372.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,304.07 | 760.66 | 2,967.91 | 2,767.97 | 479.31 | 579.04 | 2,539.40 | 2,654.94 | 2,775.74 | 2,902.04 | 3,034.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,760.49 | 1,360.73 | 904.54 | 1,367.61 | 1,437.94 | 917.20 | 1,677.33 | 1,753.64 | 1,833.44 | 1,916.86 | 2,004.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,183.60 | 1,053.09 | 586.08 | 920.47 | 1,091.17 | 750.44 | 1,191.40 | 1,245.61 | 1,302.29 | 1,361.54 | 1,423.49 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4,194.32 | 2,227.88 | 1,230.51 | 1,686.17 | 2,063.19 | 1,357.27 | 2,600.74 | 2,719.08 | 2,842.80 | 2,972.14 | 3,107.37 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,072.09 | -2,631.88 | -1,239.68 | -768.97 | -1,312.08 | -1,020.66 | -1,984.06 | -2,074.33 | -2,168.71 | -2,267.39 | -2,370.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.41 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 910.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.32 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.10 |
| Total Debt | 6,282.96 |
| Total Equity | 8,565.12 |
| Total Capital | 14,848.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 42.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 57.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,534.77 | 16,903.52 | 8,336.82 | 8,189.26 | 13,388.61 | 15,441.09 | 16,143.66 | 16,878.19 | 17,646.15 | 18,449.05 | 19,288.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,247.44 | 3,086.58 | 2,233.43 | 744.40 | 4,704.76 | -682.50 | 2,781.55 | 2,908.11 | 3,040.43 | 3,178.77 | 3,323.41 |
| EBIT | 1,525.53 | 1,411.44 | 704.46 | -370.15 | 3,110.18 | -2,260.58 | 795.88 | 832.09 | 869.96 | 909.54 | 950.92 |
| Tax Rate | 39.49% | 37.74% | -4.04% | 38.63% | -1.57% | 27.45% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% |
| EBIAT | 923.12 | 878.76 | 732.92 | -227.18 | 3,158.98 | -1,639.98 | 613.23 | 641.13 | 670.30 | 700.80 | 732.69 |
| Depreciation | 1,721.91 | 1,675.14 | 1,528.97 | 1,114.56 | 1,594.58 | 1,578.08 | 1,985.67 | 2,076.02 | 2,170.48 | 2,269.23 | 2,372.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 399.76 | 456.19 | -463.06 | -70.33 | 520.74 | -760.13 | -76.32 | -79.79 | -83.42 | -87.22 |
| Inventories | - | 130.51 | 467.01 | -334.39 | -170.70 | 340.74 | -440.97 | -54.21 | -56.68 | -59.25 | -61.95 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1,966.43 | -997.37 | 455.65 | 377.02 | -705.91 | 1,243.47 | 118.33 | 123.72 | 129.35 | 135.23 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -440.21 | -1,392.19 | -470.71 | 543.11 | -291.43 | 963.40 | 90.27 | 94.38 | 98.68 | 103.17 |
| UFCF | 2,645.04 | 677.51 | 795.53 | 74.86 | 5,432.66 | -197.77 | 3,604.68 | 2,795.23 | 2,922.41 | 3,055.38 | 3,194.40 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 3,375.80 | 2,451.53 | 2,400.34 | 2,350.21 | 2,301.12 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 16,250.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,322.18 |
| Terminal Value | 119,502.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 86,085.24 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 102,336.06 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,703.92 |
| Equity Value | 96,632.14 |
| Shares Outstanding | 910.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 106.16 |