Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE)
Energy
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,534.77 | 16,903.52 | 8,336.82 | 8,189.26 | 13,388.61 | 15,441.09 | 16,143.66 | 16,878.19 | 17,646.15 | 18,449.05 | 19,288.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,247.44 | 3,086.58 | 2,233.43 | 744.40 | 4,704.76 | -682.50 | 2,739.58 | 2,864.23 | 2,994.55 | 3,130.80 | 3,273.26 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,525.53 | 1,411.44 | 704.46 | -370.15 | 3,110.18 | -2,260.58 | 673.19 | 703.82 | 735.84 | 769.33 | 804.33 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,721.91 | 1,675.14 | 1,528.97 | 1,114.56 | 1,594.58 | 1,578.08 | 2,066.39 | 2,160.41 | 2,258.71 | 2,361.48 | 2,468.93 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,304.07 | 760.66 | 2,967.91 | 2,767.97 | 479.31 | 579.04 | 2,621.73 | 2,741.02 | 2,865.74 | 2,996.13 | 3,132.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,760.49 | 1,360.73 | 904.54 | 1,367.61 | 1,437.94 | 917.20 | 1,688.63 | 1,765.46 | 1,845.79 | 1,929.77 | 2,017.58 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,183.60 | 1,053.09 | 586.08 | 920.47 | 1,091.17 | 750.44 | 1,210.77 | 1,265.86 | 1,323.46 | 1,383.68 | 1,446.64 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4,194.32 | 2,227.88 | 1,230.51 | 1,686.17 | 2,063.19 | 1,357.27 | 2,348.90 | 2,455.78 | 2,567.52 | 2,684.34 | 2,806.47 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,072.09 | -2,631.88 | -1,239.68 | -768.97 | -1,312.08 | -1,020.66 | -1,816.16 | -1,898.80 | -1,985.19 | -2,075.52 | -2,169.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.28 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | - |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.32 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.10 |
| Total Debt | 6,282.96 |
| Total Equity | - |
| Total Capital | 6,282.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 100.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,534.77 | 16,903.52 | 8,336.82 | 8,189.26 | 13,388.61 | 15,441.09 | 16,143.66 | 16,878.19 | 17,646.15 | 18,449.05 | 19,288.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,247.44 | 3,086.58 | 2,233.43 | 744.40 | 4,704.76 | -682.50 | 2,739.58 | 2,864.23 | 2,994.55 | 3,130.80 | 3,273.26 |
| EBIT | 1,525.53 | 1,411.44 | 704.46 | -370.15 | 3,110.18 | -2,260.58 | 673.19 | 703.82 | 735.84 | 769.33 | 804.33 |
| Tax Rate | 39.49% | 37.74% | -4.04% | 38.63% | -1.57% | 27.45% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% | 22.95% |
| EBIAT | 923.12 | 878.76 | 732.92 | -227.18 | 3,158.98 | -1,639.98 | 518.70 | 542.30 | 566.97 | 592.77 | 619.74 |
| Depreciation | 1,721.91 | 1,675.14 | 1,528.97 | 1,114.56 | 1,594.58 | 1,578.08 | 2,066.39 | 2,160.41 | 2,258.71 | 2,361.48 | 2,468.93 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 399.76 | 456.19 | -463.06 | -70.33 | 520.74 | -771.43 | -76.83 | -80.33 | -83.98 | -87.80 |
| Inventories | - | 130.51 | 467.01 | -334.39 | -170.70 | 340.74 | -460.34 | -55.09 | -57.60 | -60.22 | -62.96 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1,966.43 | -997.37 | 455.65 | 377.02 | -705.91 | 991.63 | 106.88 | 111.74 | 116.82 | 122.14 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -440.21 | -1,392.19 | -470.71 | 543.11 | -291.43 | 795.51 | 82.64 | 86.40 | 90.33 | 94.44 |
| UFCF | 2,645.04 | 677.51 | 795.53 | 74.86 | 5,432.66 | -197.77 | 3,140.46 | 2,760.29 | 2,885.89 | 3,017.19 | 3,154.48 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 3,030.45 | 2,570.30 | 2,593.12 | 2,616.14 | 2,639.37 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 19,207.85 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.63 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,280.65 |
| Terminal Value | -886,663.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -741,875.97 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -722,668.12 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,703.92 |
| Equity Value | -728,372.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | - |
| Equity Value Per Share | -Infinity |
Results Unlevered DCF
| Wacc / Long-term Growth | -4 (%) | -3 (%) | -2 (%) | -1 (%) | 0 (%) | 1 (%) | 2 (%) | 3 (%) | 4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.63 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell |
| 5.13 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell |
| 4.63 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell |
| 4.13 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell |
| 3.63 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell |
| 3.13 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 2.63 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 2.13 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 1.63 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |