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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Cenovus Energy Inc

Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,534.7716,903.528,336.828,189.2613,388.6115,441.0916,143.6616,878.1917,646.1518,449.0519,288.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,247.443,086.582,233.43744.404,704.76-682.502,739.582,864.232,994.553,130.803,273.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,525.531,411.44704.46-370.153,110.18-2,260.58673.19703.82735.84769.33804.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,721.911,675.141,528.971,114.561,594.581,578.082,066.392,160.412,258.712,361.482,468.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,304.07760.662,967.912,767.97479.31579.042,621.732,741.022,865.742,996.133,132.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,760.491,360.73904.541,367.611,437.94917.201,688.631,765.461,845.791,929.772,017.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,183.601,053.09586.08920.471,091.17750.441,210.771,265.861,323.461,383.681,446.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,194.322,227.881,230.511,686.172,063.191,357.272,348.902,455.782,567.522,684.342,806.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,072.09-2,631.88-1,239.68-768.97-1,312.08-1,020.66-1,816.16-1,898.80-1,985.19-2,075.52-2,169.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.28
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.45
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.32
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.10
Total Debt 6,282.96
Total Equity -
Total Capital 6,282.96
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,534.7716,903.528,336.828,189.2613,388.6115,441.0916,143.6616,878.1917,646.1518,449.0519,288.48
EBITDA 3,247.443,086.582,233.43744.404,704.76-682.502,739.582,864.232,994.553,130.803,273.26
EBIT 1,525.531,411.44704.46-370.153,110.18-2,260.58673.19703.82735.84769.33804.33
Tax Rate 39.49%37.74%-4.04%38.63%-1.57%27.45%22.95%22.95%22.95%22.95%22.95%
EBIAT 923.12878.76732.92-227.183,158.98-1,639.98518.70542.30566.97592.77619.74
Depreciation 1,721.911,675.141,528.971,114.561,594.581,578.082,066.392,160.412,258.712,361.482,468.93
Accounts Receivable -399.76456.19-463.06-70.33520.74-771.43-76.83-80.33-83.98-87.80
Inventories -130.51467.01-334.39-170.70340.74-460.34-55.09-57.60-60.22-62.96
Accounts Payable --1,966.43-997.37455.65377.02-705.91991.63106.88111.74116.82122.14
Capital Expenditure --440.21-1,392.19-470.71543.11-291.43795.5182.6486.4090.3394.44
UFCF 2,645.04677.51795.5374.865,432.66-197.773,140.462,760.292,885.893,017.193,154.48
WACC
PV UFCF 3,030.452,570.302,593.122,616.142,639.37
SUM PV UFCF 19,207.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,280.65
Terminal Value -886,663.43
Present Value of Terminal Value -741,875.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -722,668.12
Net Debt 5,703.92
Equity Value -728,372.04
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.63 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.13 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.63 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.13 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.63 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.13 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.63 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.13 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.63 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy