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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Commvault Systems Inc.

Commvault Systems Inc. (CVLT)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 495.85586.34607.57593.78645.02699.39710.93756.36804.69856.11910.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 86.87107.5448.6116.099.229.4422.4756.7360.3564.2168.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 81.91101.3239.554.93-1.03-2.3810.3845.5348.4451.5454.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.966.229.0511.1610.2611.8212.0911.1911.9112.6713.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 435.90482.74387.63387.20450.16462.44458.34539.82574.31611.01650.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 85.04118.50117.69113.41140.10162.12176.81157.32167.38178.07189.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.871.230.850.300.130.772.201.741.851.972.09
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.01-67.14-65.07-8.37-6.45-7.06-6.54-32.37-34.44-36.64-38.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 41.54
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 65.85
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.24
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.02
Total Debt -
Total Equity 1,977.35
Total Capital 1,977.35
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 495.85586.34607.57593.78645.02699.39710.93756.36804.69856.11910.82
EBITDA 86.87107.5448.6116.099.229.4422.4756.7360.3564.2168.31
EBIT 81.91101.3239.554.93-1.03-2.3810.3845.5348.4451.5454.83
Tax Rate 35.07%36.76%34.05%56.52%74.52%-1,668.57%65.85%-195.11%-195.11%-195.11%-195.11%
EBIAT 53.1864.0726.092.14-0.26-42.063.54134.37142.96152.10161.81
Depreciation 4.966.229.0511.1610.2611.8212.0911.1911.9112.6713.48
Accounts Receivable --33.460.814.27-26.69-22.02-14.6919.49-10.05-10.70-11.38
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --2.64-0.38-0.55-0.170.641.43-0.460.110.120.13
Capital Expenditure -50.13-2.07-56.70-1.920.61-0.5225.832.072.202.34
UFCF 58.1484.3233.51-39.67-18.78-51.001.85190.42147.00156.39166.38
WACC
PV UFCF 151.75104.5799.3294.33
SUM PV UFCF 309.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 173.04
Terminal Value 2,157.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,223.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,533.02
Net Debt -458.34
Equity Value 1,991.36
Shares Outstanding 47.60
Equity Value Per Share 41.83