Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
Healthcare
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 126,761.00 | 139,361.04 | 153,283.21 | 177,532.62 | 184,775.95 | 194,569.07 | 212,138.66 | 231,294.78 | 252,180.70 | 274,952.62 | 299,780.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9,900.03 | 10,201.23 | 11,557.55 | 12,178.74 | 11,807.18 | 6,751.55 | 13,916.30 | 15,172.94 | 16,543.05 | 18,036.89 | 19,665.62 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 8,023.97 | 8,264.11 | 9,472.90 | 9,711.03 | 9,331.19 | 4,027.58 | 10,967.57 | 11,957.94 | 13,037.74 | 14,215.05 | 15,498.67 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,876.06 | 1,937.12 | 2,084.65 | 2,467.70 | 2,476.00 | 2,723.97 | 2,948.73 | 3,215.00 | 3,505.31 | 3,821.84 | 4,166.95 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4,183.11 | 2,508.50 | 2,544.50 | 3,461.89 | 1,810.80 | 6,576.43 | 4,624.62 | 5,042.23 | 5,497.54 | 5,993.97 | 6,535.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 8,733.83 | 9,685.59 | 11,894.78 | 12,160.98 | 13,174.52 | 17,627.96 | 15,783.12 | 17,208.33 | 18,762.24 | 20,456.47 | 22,303.69 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 11,040.88 | 11,929.31 | 13,994.76 | 14,752.96 | 15,299.45 | 16,441.09 | 18,201.50 | 19,845.09 | 21,637.10 | 23,590.93 | 25,721.20 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10,090.18 | 11,957.18 | 15,144.38 | 17,398.20 | 8,869.25 | 8,930.72 | 16,122.54 | 17,578.40 | 19,165.73 | 20,896.40 | 22,783.34 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,926.77 | -2,118.29 | -2,329.90 | -2,219.16 | -1,921.67 | -2,042.98 | -2,800.23 | -3,053.09 | -3,328.79 | -3,629.37 | -3,957.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 74.72 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,044.00 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 142.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -7.06 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.89 |
| Total Debt | 71,444.00 |
| Total Equity | 78,007.68 |
| Total Capital | 149,451.68 |
| Debt Weighting | 47.80 |
| Equity Weighting | 52.20 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 126,761.00 | 139,361.04 | 153,283.21 | 177,532.62 | 184,775.95 | 194,569.07 | 212,138.66 | 231,294.78 | 252,180.70 | 274,952.62 | 299,780.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9,900.03 | 10,201.23 | 11,557.55 | 12,178.74 | 11,807.18 | 6,751.55 | 13,916.30 | 15,172.94 | 16,543.05 | 18,036.89 | 19,665.62 |
| EBIT | 8,023.97 | 8,264.11 | 9,472.90 | 9,711.03 | 9,331.19 | 4,027.58 | 10,967.57 | 11,957.94 | 13,037.74 | 14,215.05 | 15,498.67 |
| Tax Rate | 38.94% | 39.51% | 39.27% | 38.42% | 19.82% | 142.19% | 53.02% | 53.02% | 53.02% | 53.02% | 53.02% |
| EBIAT | 4,899.74 | 4,999.16 | 5,753.17 | 5,980.26 | 7,481.67 | -1,699.14 | 5,152.25 | 5,617.50 | 6,124.76 | 6,677.83 | 7,280.83 |
| Depreciation | 1,876.06 | 1,937.12 | 2,084.65 | 2,467.70 | 2,476.00 | 2,723.97 | 2,948.73 | 3,215.00 | 3,505.31 | 3,821.84 | 4,166.95 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -951.76 | -2,209.18 | -266.21 | -1,013.54 | -4,453.43 | 1,844.84 | -1,425.22 | -1,553.91 | -1,694.23 | -1,847.22 |
| Inventories | - | -888.42 | -2,065.45 | -758.20 | -546.49 | -1,141.64 | -1,760.41 | -1,643.60 | -1,792.01 | -1,953.83 | -2,130.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1,867.00 | 3,187.20 | 2,253.82 | -8,528.95 | 61.47 | 7,191.82 | 1,455.87 | 1,587.33 | 1,730.67 | 1,886.94 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 191.52 | 211.62 | -110.75 | -297.49 | 121.31 | 757.26 | 252.86 | 275.69 | 300.59 | 327.73 |
| UFCF | 6,775.81 | 7,154.62 | 6,962.01 | 9,566.62 | -428.80 | -4,387.46 | 16,134.48 | 7,472.41 | 8,147.17 | 8,882.86 | 9,684.98 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 15,491.58 | 6,888.78 | 7,211.56 | 7,549.46 | 7,903.19 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 58,900.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 10,072.38 |
| Terminal Value | 6,714,922.44 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,479,546.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,538,446.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 64,867.57 |
| Equity Value | 5,473,579.12 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,044.00 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5,242.89 |