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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,773.0040,360.4540,703.5139,449.8541,138.3044,437.5945,939.5847,492.3449,097.5850,757.0852,472.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,035.143,491.189,471.718,627.688,116.597,789.917,993.498,263.678,542.988,831.739,130.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,376.911,719.367,635.986,741.985,895.125,461.385,797.585,993.536,196.116,405.546,622.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,658.231,771.821,835.731,885.702,221.472,328.532,195.912,270.132,346.862,426.192,508.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,803.743,305.523,435.383,250.672,636.961,564.203,436.283,552.433,672.503,796.633,924.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,609.132,296.512,018.892,063.232,377.792,315.202,384.262,464.852,548.162,634.292,723.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,061.42851.61696.03891.571,328.771,053.171,111.741,149.311,188.161,228.321,269.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,300.382,623.432,743.422,572.133,632.512,977.323,169.833,276.973,387.733,502.243,620.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,568.56-2,248.08-2,946.93-3,392.69-3,891.68-5,168.09-3,771.64-3,899.12-4,030.91-4,167.16-4,308.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.05
Diluted Shares Outstanding 685.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.13
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.27
Total Debt 14,054.00
Total Equity 38,428.93
Total Capital 52,482.93
Debt Weighting 26.78
Equity Weighting 73.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,773.0040,360.4540,703.5139,449.8541,138.3044,437.5945,939.5847,492.3449,097.5850,757.0852,472.67
EBITDA 5,035.143,491.189,471.718,627.688,116.597,789.917,993.498,263.678,542.988,831.739,130.24
EBIT 3,376.911,719.367,635.986,741.985,895.125,461.385,797.585,993.536,196.116,405.546,622.05
Tax Rate -317.10%38.53%36.76%33.97%41.73%23.61%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%
EBIAT 14,084.921,056.954,828.904,451.853,435.254,172.117,174.557,417.057,667.757,926.928,194.85
Depreciation 1,658.231,771.821,835.731,885.702,221.472,328.532,195.912,270.132,346.862,426.192,508.19
Accounts Receivable --687.38277.62-44.33-314.5762.60-69.07-80.59-83.31-86.13-89.04
Inventories -209.82155.58-195.54-437.20275.60-58.57-37.58-38.85-40.16-41.52
Accounts Payable -323.05119.99-171.291,060.38-655.19192.51107.14110.76114.51118.38
Capital Expenditure --320.49698.86445.75499.001,276.41-1,396.45127.48131.79136.24140.85
UFCF 15,743.152,353.787,916.666,372.156,464.337,460.048,038.899,803.6410,135.0110,477.5710,831.71
WACC
PV UFCF 7,356.918,210.807,768.217,349.486,953.32
SUM PV UFCF 57,561.00

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,264.98
Terminal Value 213,756.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 137,219.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 194,780.26
Net Debt 12,489.80
Equity Value 182,290.46
Shares Outstanding 685.62
Equity Value Per Share 265.88