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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,773.0040,360.4540,703.5139,449.8541,138.3044,437.5945,939.5847,492.3449,097.5850,757.0852,472.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,035.143,491.189,471.718,627.688,116.597,789.918,365.608,648.368,940.679,242.869,555.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,376.911,719.367,635.986,741.985,895.125,461.386,132.936,340.236,554.536,776.077,005.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,658.231,771.821,835.731,885.702,221.472,328.532,232.662,308.132,386.142,466.792,550.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,803.743,305.523,435.383,250.672,636.961,564.203,197.393,305.473,417.193,532.693,652.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,609.132,296.512,018.892,063.232,377.792,315.202,466.962,550.342,636.542,725.662,817.78
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,061.42851.61696.03891.571,328.771,053.171,074.991,111.321,148.881,187.721,227.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,300.382,623.432,743.422,572.133,632.512,977.323,243.333,352.963,466.293,583.453,704.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,568.56-2,248.08-2,946.93-3,392.69-3,891.68-5,168.09-3,904.86-4,036.85-4,173.29-4,314.35-4,460.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.77
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.13
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.27
Total Debt 14,054.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 14,054.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,773.0040,360.4540,703.5139,449.8541,138.3044,437.5945,939.5847,492.3449,097.5850,757.0852,472.67
EBITDA 5,035.143,491.189,471.718,627.688,116.597,789.918,365.608,648.368,940.679,242.869,555.27
EBIT 3,376.911,719.367,635.986,741.985,895.125,461.386,132.936,340.236,554.536,776.077,005.10
Tax Rate -317.10%38.53%36.76%33.97%41.73%23.61%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%-23.75%
EBIAT 14,084.921,056.954,828.904,451.853,435.254,172.117,589.567,846.098,111.298,385.458,668.88
Depreciation 1,658.231,771.821,835.731,885.702,221.472,328.532,232.662,308.132,386.142,466.792,550.17
Accounts Receivable --687.38277.62-44.33-314.5762.60-151.76-83.38-86.20-89.12-92.13
Inventories -209.82155.58-195.54-437.20275.60-21.82-36.33-37.56-38.83-40.14
Accounts Payable -323.05119.99-171.291,060.38-655.19266.02109.62113.33117.16121.12
Capital Expenditure --320.49698.86445.75499.001,276.41-1,263.23131.98136.45141.06145.83
UFCF 15,743.152,353.787,916.666,372.156,464.337,460.048,651.4410,276.1110,623.4410,982.5111,353.72
WACC
PV UFCF 8,333.129,533.819,493.419,453.179,413.11
SUM PV UFCF 78,139.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,807.87
Terminal Value -6,559,928.44
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,438,685.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -5,360,546.83
Net Debt 12,489.80
Equity Value -5,373,036.63
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.82 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.32 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.82 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.32 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.82 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.32 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.82 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.32 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.82 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy