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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


The Walt Disney Company

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 45,041.0048,810.9352,461.9955,630.6955,135.5859,430.6462,853.8566,474.2370,303.1474,352.6178,635.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,548.5114,008.7415,869.7517,256.6416,568.2417,847.0218,862.4419,948.9221,097.9722,313.2223,598.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,355.0211,719.5013,514.2114,731.0113,783.9014,833.8915,864.3116,778.1017,744.5118,766.6019,847.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,193.502,289.232,355.542,525.632,784.353,013.132,998.133,170.823,353.463,546.623,750.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,932.083,421.654,270.414,611.784,019.384,148.264,739.185,012.165,300.865,606.195,929.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,967.847,824.398,021.449,062.248,634.239,336.559,924.6210,496.2811,100.8711,740.2812,416.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,486.351,571.711,568.611,390.771,372.881,390.681,703.341,801.451,905.222,014.962,131.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,801.197,594.987,843.079,129.008,854.779,479.199,924.6210,496.2811,100.8711,740.2812,416.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,797.05-3,309.38-4,265.16-4,773.11-3,622.41-4,463.24-4,726.61-4,998.86-5,286.80-5,591.32-5,913.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 136.88
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,507.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.66
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.53
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.09
Total Debt 17,084.00
Total Equity 206,278.16
Total Capital 223,362.16
Debt Weighting 7.65
Equity Weighting 92.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 45,041.0048,810.9352,461.9955,630.6955,135.5859,430.6462,853.8566,474.2370,303.1474,352.6178,635.32
EBITDA 11,548.5114,008.7415,869.7517,256.6416,568.2417,847.0218,862.4419,948.9221,097.9722,313.2223,598.46
EBIT 9,355.0211,719.5013,514.2114,731.0113,783.9014,833.8915,864.3116,778.1017,744.5118,766.6019,847.55
Tax Rate 32.72%36.12%37.44%35.10%33.00%11.66%31.01%31.01%31.01%31.01%31.01%
EBIAT 6,294.127,485.998,454.709,561.059,235.8913,104.0810,945.4911,575.9512,242.7312,947.9113,693.71
Depreciation 2,193.502,289.232,355.542,525.632,784.353,013.132,998.133,170.823,353.463,546.623,750.90
Accounts Receivable --856.55-197.05-1,040.80428.01-702.32-588.07-571.66-604.59-639.41-676.24
Inventories --85.363.10177.8517.89-17.80-312.66-98.11-103.76-109.74-116.06
Accounts Payable -793.79248.091,285.93-274.22624.41445.44571.66604.59639.41676.24
Capital Expenditure -512.34955.78507.95-1,150.71840.83263.37272.25287.93304.52322.06
UFCF 8,487.6210,139.4411,820.1613,017.6211,041.2116,862.3413,751.6914,920.9115,780.3616,689.3117,650.61
WACC
PV UFCF 12,541.4412,410.1811,969.9111,545.2611,135.68
SUM PV UFCF 85,106.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,356.64
Terminal Value 324,896.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 204,975.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 290,081.95
Net Debt 12,935.74
Equity Value 277,146.21
Shares Outstanding 1,507.00
Equity Value Per Share 183.91

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
11.65 (%) 114.65 Sell 121.68 Sell 130.17 Sell 140.62 Buy 153.80 Buy 170.94 Buy 194.15 Buy 227.35 Buy 278.73 Buy
11.15 (%) 110.44 Sell 116.76 Sell 124.32 Sell 133.54 Sell 145.02 Buy 159.71 Buy 179.18 Buy 206.21 Buy 246.27 Buy
10.65 (%) 106.60 Sell 112.30 Sell 119.07 Sell 127.25 Sell 137.32 Buy 150.02 Buy 166.54 Buy 188.91 Buy 220.90 Buy
10.15 (%) 103.08 Sell 108.25 Sell 114.34 Sell 121.63 Sell 130.51 Sell 141.58 Buy 155.74 Buy 174.51 Buy 200.56 Buy
9.65 (%) 99.86 Sell 104.55 Sell 110.05 Sell 116.58 Sell 124.46 Sell 134.17 Sell 146.41 Buy 162.34 Buy 183.91 Buy
9.15 (%) 96.90 Sell 101.17 Sell 106.15 Sell 112.02 Sell 119.05 Sell 127.62 Sell 138.29 Buy 151.94 Buy 170.04 Buy
8.65 (%) 94.16 Sell 98.07 Sell 102.60 Sell 107.90 Sell 114.19 Sell 121.80 Sell 131.16 Sell 142.97 Buy 158.32 Buy
8.15 (%) 91.64 Sell 95.22 Sell 99.34 Sell 104.15 Sell 109.81 Sell 116.59 Sell 124.85 Sell 135.14 Sell 148.31 Buy
7.65 (%) 89.30 Sell 92.59 Sell 96.36 Sell 100.72 Sell 105.84 Sell 111.91 Sell 119.25 Sell 128.28 Sell 139.67 Buy