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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


DowDuPont Inc.

DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 57,080.0058,164.5248,776.7748,157.3062,484.1085,978.1294,894.05104,734.56115,595.54127,582.80140,813.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,559.808,928.2513,301.428,047.096,035.9612,759.1515,904.2417,553.5119,373.8121,382.8823,600.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,877.046,182.8910,779.675,186.542,068.226,843.8610,390.9011,468.4312,657.7113,970.3215,419.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,682.762,745.372,521.762,860.543,967.745,915.295,513.346,085.086,716.107,412.568,181.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5,942.035,653.598,574.966,607.1814,396.3413,618.9315,164.0716,736.5818,472.1720,387.7322,501.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10,011.839,992.668,662.759,684.4317,570.5317,814.6719,718.9821,763.8424,020.7526,511.7029,260.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,305.148,102.326,872.657,363.2516,989.4316,619.5717,052.4618,820.8020,772.5222,926.6325,304.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,589.234,478.673,575.344,517.159,135.189,457.599,498.8910,483.9311,571.1112,771.0414,095.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,300.32-3,571.30-3,702.16-3,915.19-3,692.81-3,954.99-6,139.65-6,776.33-7,479.03-8,254.61-9,110.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.51
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,315.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.35
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.19
Total Debt 37,662.00
Total Equity 70,645.90
Total Capital 108,307.90
Debt Weighting 34.77
Equity Weighting 65.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 57,080.0058,164.5248,776.7748,157.3062,484.1085,978.1294,894.05104,734.56115,595.54127,582.80140,813.13
EBITDA 10,559.808,928.2513,301.428,047.096,035.9612,759.1515,904.2417,553.5119,373.8121,382.8823,600.28
EBIT 7,877.046,182.8910,779.675,186.542,068.226,843.8610,390.9011,468.4312,657.7113,970.3215,419.04
Tax Rate 29.34%27.43%21.84%0.21%-48.37%27.92%9.73%9.73%9.73%9.73%9.73%
EBIAT 5,565.674,486.708,425.735,175.753,068.714,933.029,380.0710,352.7811,426.3712,611.2813,919.07
Depreciation 2,682.762,745.372,521.762,860.543,967.745,915.295,513.346,085.086,716.107,412.568,181.24
Accounts Receivable -19.171,329.91-1,021.68-7,886.10-244.14-1,904.32-2,044.86-2,256.91-2,490.95-2,749.26
Inventories -202.821,229.67-490.61-9,626.18369.86-432.89-1,768.34-1,951.72-2,154.11-2,377.49
Accounts Payable --110.56-903.33941.824,618.02322.4241.30985.041,087.181,199.921,324.36
Capital Expenditure -1,270.98130.86213.03-222.38262.182,184.65636.68702.71775.58856.00
UFCF 8,248.438,614.4712,734.597,678.86-6,080.1811,558.6314,782.1614,246.3815,723.7317,354.2819,153.92
WACC
PV UFCF 13,699.8712,236.6212,516.7412,803.2713,096.35
SUM PV UFCF 74,792.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19,920.07
Terminal Value 510,771.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 349,236.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 424,028.66
Net Debt 24,043.07
Equity Value 399,985.60
Shares Outstanding 2,315.50
Equity Value Per Share 172.74

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.90 (%) 82.14 Buy 89.61 Buy 98.96 Buy 111.03 Buy 127.18 Buy 149.93 Buy 184.35 Buy 242.50 Buy 361.87 Buy
9.40 (%) 77.91 Buy 84.51 Buy 92.69 Buy 103.07 Buy 116.70 Buy 135.37 Buy 162.54 Buy 205.68 Buy 284.78 Buy
8.90 (%) 74.11 Buy 79.98 Buy 87.16 Buy 96.17 Buy 107.79 Buy 123.35 Buy 145.26 Buy 178.41 Buy 234.42 Buy
8.40 (%) 70.67 Buy 75.91 Buy 82.27 Buy 90.14 Buy 100.14 Buy 113.27 Buy 131.26 Buy 157.43 Buy 198.99 Buy
7.90 (%) 67.55 Buy 72.25 Buy 77.91 Buy 84.83 Buy 93.51 Buy 104.71 Buy 119.70 Buy 140.81 Buy 172.74 Buy
7.40 (%) 64.70 Buy 68.94 Buy 74.00 Buy 80.12 Buy 87.71 Buy 97.35 Buy 110.00 Buy 127.33 Buy 152.55 Buy
6.90 (%) 62.11 Buy 65.94 Buy 70.48 Buy 75.93 Buy 82.60 Buy 90.97 Buy 101.76 Buy 116.21 Buy 136.55 Buy
6.40 (%) 59.73 Buy 63.21 Buy 67.30 Buy 72.17 Buy 78.07 Buy 85.39 Buy 94.68 Buy 106.87 Buy 123.58 Buy
5.90 (%) 57.55 Buy 60.72 Buy 64.41 Buy 68.78 Buy 74.04 Buy 80.47 Buy 88.54 Buy 98.94 Buy 112.87 Buy