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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources Inc. (EOG)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,487.1218,035.018,757.807,650.8211,208.4517,275.5819,384.9321,751.8224,407.7227,387.9130,731.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,273.989,194.25-3,370.882,277.654,344.397,920.855,720.496,418.967,202.728,082.179,069.00
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,672.485,197.69-6,684.83-1,275.39934.784,484.74-147.33-165.31-185.50-208.15-233.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,601.503,996.563,313.953,553.043,409.613,436.115,867.826,584.287,388.228,290.329,302.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,318.332,086.65718.141,599.79833.911,554.802,140.102,401.402,694.613,023.623,392.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,658.781,780.06930.951,216.481,597.201,915.862,364.962,653.722,977.743,341.323,749.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 563.55706.97599.03349.64484.20858.60920.781,033.211,159.371,300.931,459.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,254.202,860.351,472.191,511.801,847.152,240.643,148.113,532.503,963.814,447.804,990.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,061.02-8,247.41-5,012.97-2,582.92-4,124.71-6,075.82-8,318.07-9,333.71-10,473.35-11,752.15-13,187.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.83
Diluted Shares Outstanding 576.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.76
Total Debt 5,170.17
Total Equity 44,298.49
Total Capital 49,468.66
Debt Weighting 10.45
Equity Weighting 89.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,487.1218,035.018,757.807,650.8211,208.4517,275.5819,384.9321,751.8224,407.7227,387.9130,731.97
EBITDA 7,273.989,194.25-3,370.882,277.654,344.397,920.855,720.496,418.967,202.728,082.179,069.00
EBIT 3,672.485,197.69-6,684.83-1,275.39934.784,484.74-147.33-165.31-185.50-208.15-233.56
Tax Rate 36.07%41.64%34.63%29.59%-290.60%19.38%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%
EBIAT 2,347.723,033.60-4,369.77-898.043,651.273,615.54-179.07-200.94-225.47-253.00-283.89
Depreciation 3,601.503,996.563,313.953,553.043,409.613,436.115,867.826,584.287,388.228,290.329,302.57
Accounts Receivable --121.28849.10-285.53-380.72-318.66-449.10-288.76-324.02-363.58-407.98
Inventories --143.42107.94249.39-134.56-374.39-62.19-112.43-126.16-141.56-158.84
Accounts Payable -606.16-1,388.1739.61335.35393.49907.47384.38431.32483.98543.08
Capital Expenditure -1,186.39-3,234.45-2,430.051,541.791,951.112,242.251,015.641,139.651,278.801,434.94
UFCF 5,949.228,558.00-4,721.39228.438,422.748,703.218,327.187,382.178,283.549,294.9510,429.87
WACC
PV UFCF 7,444.955,900.825,919.815,938.865,957.98
SUM PV UFCF 34,103.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,847.06
Terminal Value 138,179.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 78,933.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 113,036.82
Net Debt 3,615.37
Equity Value 109,421.45
Shares Outstanding 576.58
Equity Value Per Share 189.78