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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources Inc. (EOG)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,487.1218,035.018,757.807,650.8211,208.4517,275.5819,384.9321,751.8224,407.7227,387.9130,731.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,273.989,194.25-3,370.882,277.654,344.397,920.854,919.895,520.616,194.686,951.057,799.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,672.485,197.69-6,684.83-1,275.39934.784,484.74-1,157.28-1,298.58-1,457.14-1,635.06-1,834.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,601.503,996.563,313.953,553.043,409.613,436.116,077.176,819.207,651.828,586.119,634.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,318.332,086.65718.141,599.79833.911,554.802,215.702,486.232,789.803,130.443,512.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,658.781,780.06930.951,216.481,597.201,915.862,394.042,686.353,014.353,382.413,795.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 563.55706.97599.03349.64484.20858.60953.741,070.191,200.861,347.481,512.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,254.202,860.351,472.191,511.801,847.152,240.643,173.313,560.773,995.544,483.405,030.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,061.02-8,247.41-5,012.97-2,582.92-4,124.71-6,075.82-8,091.27-9,079.21-10,187.78-11,431.71-12,827.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 75.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding 580.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.76
Total Debt 5,170.17
Total Equity 43,538.88
Total Capital 48,709.05
Debt Weighting 10.61
Equity Weighting 89.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,487.1218,035.018,757.807,650.8211,208.4517,275.5819,384.9321,751.8224,407.7227,387.9130,731.97
EBITDA 7,273.989,194.25-3,370.882,277.654,344.397,920.854,919.895,520.616,194.686,951.057,799.77
EBIT 3,672.485,197.69-6,684.83-1,275.39934.784,484.74-1,157.28-1,298.58-1,457.14-1,635.06-1,834.70
Tax Rate 36.07%41.64%34.63%29.59%-290.60%19.38%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%-21.55%
EBIAT 2,347.723,033.60-4,369.77-898.043,651.273,615.54-1,406.66-1,578.41-1,771.14-1,987.39-2,230.05
Depreciation 3,601.503,996.563,313.953,553.043,409.613,436.116,077.176,819.207,651.828,586.119,634.47
Accounts Receivable --121.28849.10-285.53-380.72-318.66-478.18-292.31-328.00-368.05-412.99
Inventories --143.42107.94249.39-134.56-374.39-95.14-116.45-130.67-146.62-164.53
Accounts Payable -606.16-1,388.1739.61335.35393.49932.67387.46434.77487.86547.42
Capital Expenditure -1,186.39-3,234.45-2,430.051,541.791,951.112,015.45987.941,108.571,243.931,395.81
UFCF 5,949.228,558.00-4,721.39228.438,422.748,703.217,045.316,207.436,965.357,815.828,770.14
WACC
PV UFCF 6,300.024,963.584,980.454,997.375,014.35
SUM PV UFCF 31,622.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,120.94
Terminal Value 116,487.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 66,601.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 98,224.17
Net Debt 3,615.37
Equity Value 94,608.80
Shares Outstanding 580.44
Equity Value Per Share 162.99

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
13.83 (%) 113.88 Buy 119.73 Buy 126.57 Buy 134.68 Buy 144.43 Buy 156.40 Buy 171.41 Buy 190.83 Buy 216.91 Buy
13.33 (%) 110.17 Buy 115.51 Buy 121.71 Buy 129.01 Buy 137.72 Buy 148.30 Buy 161.42 Buy 178.12 Buy 200.10 Buy
12.83 (%) 106.74 Buy 111.63 Buy 117.27 Buy 123.87 Buy 131.68 Buy 141.09 Buy 152.63 Buy 167.11 Buy 185.84 Buy
12.33 (%) 103.58 Buy 108.05 Buy 113.20 Buy 119.19 Buy 126.23 Buy 134.63 Buy 144.84 Buy 157.49 Buy 173.60 Buy
11.83 (%) 100.64 Buy 104.76 Buy 109.47 Buy 114.91 Buy 121.28 Buy 128.82 Buy 137.89 Buy 149.02 Buy 162.99 Buy
11.33 (%) 97.92 Buy 101.71 Buy 106.03 Buy 111.00 Buy 116.77 Buy 123.56 Buy 131.67 Buy 141.52 Buy 153.73 Buy
10.83 (%) 95.38 Buy 98.88 Buy 102.85 Buy 107.40 Buy 112.65 Buy 118.80 Buy 126.07 Buy 134.83 Buy 145.57 Buy
10.33 (%) 93.02 Buy 96.26 Buy 99.92 Buy 104.09 Buy 108.88 Buy 114.45 Buy 121.01 Buy 128.84 Buy 138.34 Buy
9.83 (%) 90.82 Buy 93.82 Buy 97.20 Buy 101.03 Buy 105.42 Buy 110.49 Buy 116.42 Buy 123.44 Buy 131.90 Buy