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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Ensco plc Class A

Ensco plc Class A (ESV)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,323.404,564.654,063.452,776.551,843.081,705.401,438.841,213.951,024.21864.13729.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,276.27-3,062.88-984.981,533.21412.85171.22117.4199.0683.5870.5159.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,779.94-3,600.59-1,392.541,227.5129.67-267.41-100.43-84.73-71.49-60.32-50.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 496.33537.72407.56305.70383.18438.63217.84183.79155.07130.83110.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 215.741,421.891,301.122,602.19885.41604.05588.34496.39418.80353.34298.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 855.60883.26581.89360.95345.39344.66252.81213.29179.95151.83128.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 341.12373.39224.71145.77432.57210.45150.22126.74106.9390.2176.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,763.51-1,566.59-1,619.69-322.08-536.70-426.69-433.38-365.64-308.49-260.28-219.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.28
Diluted Shares Outstanding 108.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.86
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.91
Total Debt 5,010.40
Total Equity 898.59
Total Capital 5,908.99
Debt Weighting 84.79
Equity Weighting 15.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,323.404,564.654,063.452,776.551,843.081,705.401,438.841,213.951,024.21864.13729.06
EBITDA 2,276.27-3,062.88-984.981,533.21412.85171.22117.4199.0683.5870.5159.49
EBIT 1,779.94-3,600.59-1,392.541,227.5129.67-267.41-100.43-84.73-71.49-60.32-50.89
Tax Rate 12.53%-3.73%0.86%10.86%-56.14%-16.29%-8.65%-8.65%-8.65%-8.65%-8.65%
EBIAT 1,556.97-3,735.06-1,380.511,094.1646.33-310.96-109.12-92.07-77.68-65.53-55.29
Depreciation 496.33537.72407.56305.70383.18438.63217.84183.79155.07130.83110.38
Accounts Receivable --27.66301.37220.9315.560.7391.8639.5133.3428.1323.73
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -32.27-148.68-78.94286.80-222.12-60.23-23.48-19.81-16.71-14.10
Capital Expenditure --196.9353.10-1,297.61214.62-110.016.69-67.74-57.15-48.22-40.68
UFCF 2,053.30-3,389.66-767.15244.24946.49-203.74147.0440.0233.7728.4924.04
WACC
PV UFCF 136.1934.3426.8420.9716.39
SUM PV UFCF -771.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25.00
Terminal Value 631.30
Present Value of Terminal Value 430.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -340.83
Net Debt 4,406.35
Equity Value -4,747.18
Shares Outstanding 108.53
Equity Value Per Share -43.74