Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ford Motor Company (F)

$ 16.3787
+0.10 (+0.61%)
Stock DCF: 99.63 | 16.3787 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 151,800156,776160,338155,900127,144122,165.35117,381.65112,785.27108,368.87104,125.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 25,30026,81223,32618,33416,59417,867.4717,167.8316,495.5815,849.6515,229.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16,58318,35915,0189,8449,13711,117.4610,682.1310,263.849,861.939,475.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8,7178,4538,3088,4907,4576,750.016,485.706,231.745,987.725,753.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 38,82738,92733,95134,65149,96132,521.2331,247.7730,024.1928,848.5127,718.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 57,36862,80965,54862,88852,39448,935.2747,019.0845,177.9343,408.8741,709.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,89810,27711,22010,78610,8088,510.958,177.687,857.467,549.787,254.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 21,29623,28221,52020,67322,20417,842.3017,143.6416,472.3315,827.3215,207.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,992-7,049-7,785-7,632-5,742-5,709.82-5,486.24-5,271.41-5,065-4,866.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.3,787
Beta 1.046
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,973
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -14.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.587
Total Debt 162,007
Total Equity 65,072.58
Total Capital 227,079.58
Debt Weighting 71.34
Equity Weighting 28.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 151,800156,776160,338155,900127,144122,165.35117,381.65112,785.27108,368.87104,125.41
EBITDA 25,30026,81223,32618,33416,59417,867.4717,167.8316,495.5815,849.6515,229.02
EBIT 16,58318,35915,0189,8449,13711,117.4610,682.1310,263.849,861.939,475.76
Tax Rate 32.37%6.70%15.37%107.34%-14.61%29.44%29.44%29.44%29.44%29.44%
EBIAT 11,214.7517,128.7612,709.13-722.9210,471.527,844.817,537.637,242.476,958.886,686.38
Depreciation 8,7178,4538,3088,4907,4576,750.016,485.706,231.745,987.725,753.25
Accounts Receivable --5,441-2,7392,66010,4943,458.731,916.191,841.151,769.061,699.79
Inventories --1,379-943434-222,297.05333.27320.22307.68295.63
Accounts Payable -1,986-1,762-8471,531-4,361.70-698.66-671.30-645.02-619.76
Capital Expenditure -6,992-7,049-7,785-7,632-5,742-5,709.82-5,486.24-5,271.41-5,065-4,866.66
UFCF 12,939.7513,698.767,788.132,382.0824,189.5310,279.0910,087.889,692.879,313.328,948.63
WACC
PV UFCF 9,660.808,910.808,046.887,266.716,562.18
SUM PV UFCF 40,447.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,396.06
Terminal Value 671,147.19
Present Value of Terminal Value 492,163.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 532,611.13
Net Debt 136,764
Equity Value 395,847.13
Shares Outstanding 3,973
Equity Value Per Share 99.63