Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ford Motor Company (F)

$ 14.025
0.11 (+0.79%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 146,917144,077149,558151,800156,776160,338155,900127,144124,911.21122,717.62120,562.56118,445.35116,365.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,89510,86315,61312,83313,26611,5119,0643,0499,115.788,955.708,798.428,643.918,492.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,4393,4407,6474,1164,8133,203574-4,4082,479.972,436.422,393.642,351.602,310.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,4567,4237,9668,7178,4538,3088,4907,4576,635.806,519.276,404.796,292.316,181.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 36,56831,15035,17638,82738,92733,95134,65149,96131,717.1331,160.1430,612.9330,075.3329,547.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 87,30992,819101,97557,36862,80965,54862,88852,39461,256.1160,180.3959,123.5558,085.2757,065.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,7087,8668,3198,89810,27711,22010,78610,8087,979.057,838.937,701.277,566.027,433.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19,53120,03520,27221,29623,28221,52020,67322,20417,765.4117,453.4317,146.9316,845.8116,549.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,597-7,463-7,196-6,992-7,049-7,785-7,632-5,742-5,910-5,806.22-5,704.25-5,604.08-5,505.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.025
Beta 1.149
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,973
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -14.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.605
Total Debt 161,684
Total Equity 55,721.32
Total Capital 217,405.33
Debt Weighting 74.37
Equity Weighting 25.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 146,917144,077149,558151,800156,776160,338155,900127,144124,911.21122,717.62120,562.56118,445.35116,365.31
EBITDA 11,89510,86315,61312,83313,26611,5119,0643,0499,115.788,955.708,798.428,643.918,492.12
EBIT 5,4393,4407,6474,1164,8133,203574-4,4082,479.972,436.422,393.642,351.602,310.31
Tax Rate -2.20%26.60%28.08%32.37%6.70%15.37%107.34%-14.61%24.96%24.96%24.96%24.96%24.96%
EBIAT 5,558.642,524.945,499.542,783.574,490.482,710.57-42.15-5,051.821,861.011,828.331,796.221,764.681,733.69
Depreciation 6,4567,4237,9668,7178,4538,3088,4907,4576,635.806,519.276,404.796,292.316,181.81
Accounts Receivable --5,510-9,15644,607-5,441-2,7392,66010,494-8,862.111,075.731,056.841,038.281,020.04
Inventories --158-453-579-1,379-943434-222,828.95140.12137.66135.24132.87
Accounts Payable -5042371,0241,986-1,762-8471,531-4,438.59-311.98-306.50-301.12-295.83
Capital Expenditure -6,597-7,463-7,196-6,992-7,049-7,785-7,632-5,742-5,910-5,806.22-5,704.25-5,604.08-5,505.67
UFCF 5,417.64-2,679.06-3,102.4549,560.571,060.48-2,210.433,062.858,666.18-7,884.943,445.253,384.753,325.313,266.91
WACC
PV UFCF -6,927.092,836.942,612.352,405.542,215.11
SUM PV UFCF 3,353.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,397.59
Terminal Value 126,304.36
Present Value of Terminal Value 91,369.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 94,722.30
Net Debt 136,441
Equity Value -41,718.70
Shares Outstanding 3,973
Equity Value Per Share -10.50