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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company (F)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 146,917.00144,081.50149,556.60151,799.95156,778.99160,337.87163,191.88166,096.70169,053.22172,062.37175,125.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 24,608.609,451.7518,993.6916,439.9317,778.7413,869.2318,179.5818,503.1718,832.5319,167.7519,508.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18,070.792,031.5511,022.327,726.629,328.355,563.729,677.289,849.5310,024.8610,203.3010,384.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,537.817,420.207,971.378,713.328,450.398,305.508,502.308,653.648,807.678,964.459,124.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --35,175.7138,830.4338,928.2233,943.5338,807.0339,497.7940,200.8640,916.4341,644.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 87,312.7792,817.30101,728.40107,292.20118,995.25121,087.16112,602.40114,606.72116,646.72118,723.03120,836.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,713.147,866.858,315.358,895.4811,178.3411,223.659,856.7910,032.2410,210.8110,392.5710,577.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19,525.2720,041.7420,264.9221,297.5323,281.6821,517.3422,585.7622,987.7823,396.9723,813.4324,237.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,596.57-7,463.42-7,193.67-6,997.98-7,055.05-7,792.42-7,735.30-7,872.98-8,013.12-8,155.76-8,300.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.12
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,977.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.02
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.70
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.83
Total Debt 100,720.00
Total Equity 36,278.48
Total Capital 136,998.48
Debt Weighting 73.52
Equity Weighting 26.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 146,917.00144,081.50149,556.60151,799.95156,778.99160,337.87163,191.88166,096.70169,053.22172,062.37175,125.08
EBITDA 24,608.609,451.7518,993.6916,439.9317,778.7413,869.2318,179.5818,503.1718,832.5319,167.7519,508.93
EBIT 18,070.792,031.5511,022.327,726.629,328.355,563.729,677.289,849.5310,024.8610,203.3010,384.92
Tax Rate 16.87%0.32%28.10%32.25%4.94%15.02%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%
EBIAT 15,022.962,024.977,925.455,235.128,867.274,727.948,104.778,249.048,395.878,545.328,697.42
Depreciation 6,537.817,420.207,971.378,713.328,450.398,305.508,502.308,653.648,807.678,964.459,124.02
Accounts Receivable --5,504.53-8,911.10-5,563.80-11,703.05-2,091.918,484.76-2,004.32-2,040.00-2,076.31-2,113.27
Inventories --153.71-448.50-580.13-2,282.86-45.311,366.86-175.45-178.57-181.75-184.99
Accounts Payable -516.47223.181,032.611,984.15-1,764.341,068.41402.03409.18416.47423.88
Capital Expenditure -866.85-269.75-195.6957.08737.37-57.13137.69140.14142.63145.17
UFCF 21,560.775,170.246,490.668,641.425,372.969,869.2627,469.9815,262.6215,534.2915,810.8016,092.23
WACC
PV UFCF 25,917.5213,586.2413,046.5812,528.3612,030.73
SUM PV UFCF 102,611.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 16,735.92
Terminal Value 841,001.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 628,741.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 731,352.96
Net Debt 66,776.47
Equity Value 664,576.48
Shares Outstanding 3,977.90
Equity Value Per Share 167.07