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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company (F)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 149,558.00151,801.37156,780.45160,339.37164,107.35167,963.87171,911.02175,950.93180,085.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 18,993.8716,440.0917,778.9013,869.3617,854.8818,274.4718,703.9219,143.4619,593.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,022.427,726.699,328.445,563.788,976.679,187.629,403.539,624.529,850.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7,971.448,713.408,450.478,305.588,878.219,086.859,300.399,518.959,742.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 35,176.0438,830.7938,928.5933,943.8439,024.7339,941.8140,880.4441,841.1342,824.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 101,729.35107,293.21118,996.37121,088.29119,027.06121,824.19124,687.06127,617.21130,616.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,315.428,895.5611,178.4511,223.7610,486.4610,732.8910,985.1111,243.2611,507.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20,265.1121,297.7323,281.9021,517.5422,909.3923,447.7623,998.7824,562.7525,139.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,193.74-6,998.04-7,055.12-7,792.49-7,696.63-7,877.51-8,062.63-8,252.10-8,446.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,449.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.02
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.70
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.83
Total Debt 100,720.00
Total Equity 30,903.04
Total Capital 131,623.04
Debt Weighting 76.52
Equity Weighting 23.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 149,558.00151,801.37156,780.45160,339.37164,107.35167,963.87171,911.02175,950.93180,085.78
EBITDA 18,993.8716,440.0917,778.9013,869.3617,854.8818,274.4718,703.9219,143.4619,593.33
EBIT 11,022.427,726.699,328.445,563.788,976.679,187.629,403.539,624.529,850.69
Tax Rate 28.10%32.25%4.94%15.02%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%
EBIAT 7,925.535,235.178,867.354,727.997,518.017,694.687,875.518,060.588,250.01
Depreciation 7,971.448,713.408,450.478,305.588,878.219,086.859,300.399,518.959,742.64
Accounts Receivable --5,563.86-11,703.16-2,091.932,061.23-2,797.14-2,862.87-2,930.15-2,999.00
Inventories --580.14-2,282.89-45.31737.30-246.43-252.22-258.15-264.22
Accounts Payable -1,032.621,984.17-1,764.351,391.84538.37551.02563.97577.22
Capital Expenditure --195.7057.08737.37-95.86180.87185.12189.47193.92
UFCF 15,896.978,641.505,373.019,869.3520,490.7314,457.2014,796.9515,144.6815,500.58
WACC
PV UFCF 21,679.2014,457.2013,985.7713,529.7213,088.53
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 16,120.60
Terminal Value 895,588.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 675,585.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 66,776.16
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 3,449.00
Equity Value Per Share -

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
7.80 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
7.30 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
6.80 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
6.30 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
5.80 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
5.30 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
4.80 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
4.30 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell
3.80 (%) - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell - Sell