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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Facebook Inc.

Facebook Inc. (FB)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,872.0012,466.1017,928.7427,638.9540,654.1355,838.4582,730.25122,573.14181,604.37269,065.03398,646.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,765.186,153.278,139.6514,858.7023,620.0529,678.1442,415.8062,843.2593,108.56137,949.64204,386.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,754.414,910.406,194.3812,517.6820,595.3825,361.8334,515.0651,137.5175,765.34112,253.93166,315.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,010.761,242.871,945.272,341.023,024.674,316.317,900.7411,705.7317,343.2225,695.7138,070.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 11,449.0411,199.5418,434.3329,449.3041,711.1441,113.8585,609.26126,838.69187,924.20278,428.49412,519.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,109.161,677.942,558.433,993.835,833.877,588.4511,607.0517,197.0125,479.0937,749.8255,930.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 267.65377.72412.36583.18768.361,362.462,093.083,101.104,594.596,807.3510,085.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,361.86-1,831.27-2,522.57-4,491.33-6,732.32-13,914.94-14,312.33-21,205.15-31,417.56-46,548.25-68,965.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 204.64
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,921.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.81
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.59
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.60
Total Debt -
Total Equity 597,753.44
Total Capital 597,753.44
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,872.0012,466.1017,928.7427,638.9540,654.1355,838.4582,730.25122,573.14181,604.37269,065.03398,646.75
EBITDA 3,765.186,153.278,139.6514,858.7023,620.0529,678.1442,415.8062,843.2593,108.56137,949.64204,386.19
EBIT 2,754.414,910.406,194.3812,517.6820,595.3825,361.8334,515.0651,137.5175,765.34112,253.93166,315.42
Tax Rate 45.53%40.12%40.46%18.38%22.63%12.81%29.99%29.99%29.99%29.99%29.99%
EBIAT 1,500.222,940.243,688.2310,216.7415,935.0722,112.7224,164.2835,801.8053,043.9578,589.92116,438.82
Depreciation 1,010.761,242.871,945.272,341.023,024.674,316.317,900.7411,705.7317,343.2225,695.7138,070.76
Accounts Receivable --568.77-880.49-1,435.40-1,840.04-1,754.58-4,018.61-5,589.96-8,282.08-12,270.73-18,180.31
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -110.0734.64170.82185.18594.10730.621,008.031,493.492,212.753,278.42
Capital Expenditure -469.41691.301,968.762,240.997,182.62397.396,892.8210,212.4015,130.6922,417.64
UFCF 2,510.994,193.825,478.9413,261.9419,545.8832,451.1729,174.4249,818.4373,810.98109,358.35162,025.33
WACC
PV UFCF 26,619.0041,473.3356,064.6775,789.62102,454.29
SUM PV UFCF 224,686.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 168,506.34
Terminal Value 3,009,041.77
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,902,722.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,127,409.30
Net Debt -41,113.85
Equity Value 2,168,523.15
Shares Outstanding 2,921.00
Equity Value Per Share 742.39

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
11.60 (%) 409.27 Buy 442.93 Buy 483.59 Buy 533.71 Buy 597.03 Buy 679.52 Buy 791.49 Buy 952.13 Buy 1,202.01 Buy
11.10 (%) 389.13 Buy 419.37 Buy 455.61 Buy 499.80 Buy 554.91 Buy 625.54 Buy 719.33 Buy 849.91 Buy 1,044.17 Buy
10.60 (%) 370.77 Buy 398.05 Buy 430.48 Buy 469.67 Buy 517.97 Buy 578.99 Buy 658.49 Buy 766.38 Buy 921.19 Buy
10.10 (%) 353.98 Buy 378.68 Buy 407.83 Buy 442.75 Buy 485.35 Buy 538.47 Buy 606.54 Buy 696.94 Buy 822.79 Buy
9.60 (%) 338.59 Buy 361.02 Buy 387.32 Buy 418.58 Buy 456.36 Buy 502.92 Buy 561.74 Buy 638.38 Buy 742.39 Buy
9.10 (%) 324.43 Buy 344.87 Buy 368.68 Buy 396.79 Buy 430.46 Buy 471.53 Buy 522.74 Buy 588.38 Buy 675.54 Buy
8.60 (%) 311.39 Buy 330.06 Buy 351.69 Buy 377.05 Buy 407.20 Buy 443.63 Buy 488.53 Buy 545.25 Buy 619.16 Buy
8.10 (%) 299.34 Buy 316.44 Buy 336.15 Buy 359.12 Buy 386.22 Buy 418.70 Buy 458.31 Buy 507.71 Buy 571.01 Buy
7.60 (%) 288.18 Buy 303.88 Buy 321.89 Buy 342.76 Buy 367.23 Buy 396.31 Buy 431.45 Buy 474.76 Buy 529.48 Buy