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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 20,921.0020,000.4814,606.3514,829.8216,403.2718,627.5518,417.0618,208.9518,003.1917,799.7517,598.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,470.893,590.09-9,952.77-516.085,219.526,292.391,462.311,445.791,429.451,413.301,397.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,673.75-272.01-13,449.52-3,126.133,505.384,537.67-1,425.48-1,409.37-1,393.45-1,377.70-1,362.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,797.143,862.093,496.762,610.051,714.141,754.722,887.802,855.162,822.902,791.002,759.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,985.40464.01176.744,244.304,525.664,217.282,819.652,787.792,756.292,725.142,694.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,866.151,240.03797.511,125.581,322.10828.931,248.681,234.571,220.621,206.821,193.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,403.947,540.185,737.375,274.975,557.436,072.586,582.266,507.886,434.346,361.636,289.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,707.203,652.093,232.382,393.532,496.582,624.623,178.783,142.863,107.353,072.243,037.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,046.15-2,328.06-2,991.383,425.69-1,161.35-1,847.85-1,539.67-1,522.27-1,505.07-1,488.06-1,471.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.09
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,449.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.58
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.61
Total Debt 11,124.00
Total Equity 18,967.41
Total Capital 30,091.41
Debt Weighting 36.97
Equity Weighting 63.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 20,921.0020,000.4814,606.3514,829.8216,403.2718,627.5518,417.0618,208.9518,003.1917,799.7517,598.61
EBITDA 7,470.893,590.09-9,952.77-516.085,219.526,292.391,462.311,445.791,429.451,413.301,397.33
EBIT 4,673.75-272.01-13,449.52-3,126.133,505.384,537.67-1,425.48-1,409.37-1,393.45-1,377.70-1,362.13
Tax Rate 35.50%-25.63%13.87%-9.56%32.66%27.58%12.40%12.40%12.40%12.40%12.40%
EBIAT 3,014.60-341.71-11,584.16-3,424.972,360.693,286.12-1,248.67-1,234.56-1,220.61-1,206.82-1,193.18
Depreciation 2,797.143,862.093,496.762,610.051,714.141,754.722,887.802,855.162,822.902,791.002,759.46
Accounts Receivable -626.12442.52-328.08-196.52493.18-419.7514.1113.9513.7913.64
Inventories --136.241,802.81462.40-282.46-515.15-509.6874.3873.5472.7171.89
Accounts Payable --55.11-419.70-838.85103.04128.04554.16-35.92-35.51-35.11-34.72
Capital Expenditure --2,718.09663.32-6,417.074,587.04686.50-308.19-17.40-17.20-17.01-16.82
UFCF 5,811.741,237.06-5,598.45-7,936.518,285.935,833.40955.671,655.771,637.061,618.561,600.27
WACC
PV UFCF 835.891,266.721,095.43947.30819.20
SUM PV UFCF 6,715.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,664.28
Terminal Value 16,111.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,247.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,962.57
Net Debt 6,906.72
Equity Value 8,055.85
Shares Outstanding 1,449.00
Equity Value Per Share 5.56