Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FibroGen Inc (FGEN)

$ 18.57
-0.24 (-1.28%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 102.17137.60180.83179.58125.67212.96256.58176.32200.01226.88257.36291.93331.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -2.87-45.63-71.95-47.61-116.51-80.13-67.86-169.83-88.85-100.78-114.32-129.68-147.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -7.95-50.10-77.62-53.65-122.61-86.69-89.31-191.88-99.73-113.13-128.33-145.57-165.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.084.475.686.046.106.5621.4522.0510.8812.341415.8818.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 122.81179.82181.17253.18735.72621.40533.76686.54491.69557.75632.69717.69814.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 17.5013.4515.4010.458.4563.6828.4641.8828.1831.9636.2641.1346.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ------6.8916.5312.0613.6815.5217.6019.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.074.556.526.225.519.146.0924.799.1310.3611.7513.3315.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.81-8.12-1.98-1.25-8.50-8.02-5.76-3.99-7.35-8.34-9.46-10.73-12.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 18.57
Beta 1.684
Diluted Shares Outstanding 89.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.863
Total Debt 38.57
Total Equity 1,668.59
Total Capital 1,707.16
Debt Weighting 2.26
Equity Weighting 97.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 102.17137.60180.83179.58125.67212.96256.58176.32200.01226.88257.36291.93331.16
EBITDA -2.87-45.63-71.95-47.61-116.51-80.13-67.86-169.83-88.85-100.78-114.32-129.68-147.11
EBIT -7.95-50.10-77.62-53.65-122.61-86.69-89.31-191.88-99.73-113.13-128.33-145.57-165.13
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%-0.28%0.11%-0.26%-0.35%-0.43%-0.19%-0.17%-0.17%-0.17%-0.17%-0.17%
EBIAT -7.95-50.10-77.84-53.59-122.92-87-89.70-192.25-99.90-113.33-128.55-145.82-165.41
Depreciation 5.084.475.686.046.106.5621.4522.0510.8812.341415.8818.02
Accounts Receivable -4.04-1.954.962-55.2335.23-13.4313.70-3.79-4.29-4.87-5.53
Inventories --------9.644.47-1.62-1.84-2.08-2.36
Accounts Payable -3.491.97-0.30-0.713.63-3.0518.70-15.661.231.391.581.79
Capital Expenditure -6.81-8.12-1.98-1.25-8.50-8.02-5.76-3.99-7.35-8.34-9.46-10.73-12.17
UFCF -9.67-46.22-74.12-44.15-124.04-140.06-41.83-178.56-93.85-113.50-128.74-146.04-165.66
WACC
PV UFCF -70.21-73.43-72.04-70.68-69.35
SUM PV UFCF -411.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) -172.29
Terminal Value -1,482.68
Present Value of Terminal Value -717.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,128.87
Net Debt -639.82
Equity Value -489.06
Shares Outstanding 89.85
Equity Value Per Share -5.44