Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Francesca's Holdings Corp

Francesca's Holdings Corp (FRAN)

$2.69
-0.25 (-8.50%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 296.40340.30377.50439.38487.19471.68428.11407.54428.37450.27473.30497.49522.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 73.9784.4966.0178.9887.4151.51-8.49-2.2459.7562.8066.0169.3972.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 66.8274.4452.8662.1768.0730.31-33.02-23.6942.5444.7147.0049.4051.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7.1510.0513.1516.8219.3421.2024.5321.4517.2118.0919.0119.9821.00
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 29.9037.5039.0756.2253.2031.3320.1017.8437.9639.9041.9444.0846.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.509.0012.289.585.6116.6416.313.749.8110.3210.8411.4011.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19.0024.6023.8031.5423.9626.8230.4831.6428.1729.6131.1232.7134.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.4010.2011.5514.309.2017.8024.3310.8214.0014.7215.4716.2617.09
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -23.66-24.63-24.26-24.28-21.85-26.78-26.20-3.61-23.74-24.96-26.23-27.57-28.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.69
Beta 2.469
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 22.116
Total Debt 8.94
Total Equity 7.80
Total Capital 16.73
Debt Weighting 53.40
Equity Weighting 46.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 296.40340.30377.50439.38487.19471.68428.11407.54428.37450.27473.30497.49522.93
EBITDA 73.9784.4966.0178.9887.4151.51-8.49-2.2459.7562.8066.0169.3972.93
EBIT 66.8274.4452.8662.1768.0730.31-33.02-23.6942.5444.7147.0049.4051.93
Tax Rate 39.23%39.38%38.54%38.17%37.88%47.88%-22.40%-0.50%27.27%27.27%27.27%27.27%27.27%
EBIAT 40.6145.1332.4938.4342.2915.80-40.42-23.8130.9432.5234.1835.9337.77
Depreciation 7.1510.0513.1516.8219.3421.2024.5321.4517.2118.0919.0119.9821.00
Accounts Receivable --6.50-3.282.703.97-11.040.3312.57-6.07-0.50-0.53-0.55-0.58
Inventories --5.600.80-7.747.58-2.86-3.66-1.163.47-1.44-1.51-1.59-1.67
Accounts Payable -1.801.352.75-5.108.606.53-13.513.180.720.750.790.83
Capital Expenditure -23.66-24.63-24.25-24.28-21.85-26.78-26.20-3.61-23.74-24.96-26.23-27.57-28.98
UFCF 24.1020.2520.2628.6946.234.92-38.89-8.0724.9824.4225.6726.9928.37
WACC
PV UFCF 19.5716.9415.7614.6613.64
SUM PV UFCF 91.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 29.50
Terminal Value 328.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 178.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 269.48
Net Debt -8.90
Equity Value 278.39
Shares Outstanding 2.90
Equity Value Per Share 96.03