Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Geo Group Inc (GEO)

$ 5.67
-0.1 (-1.73%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,522.071,691.621,843.312,179.492,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,505.622,671.442,848.233,036.723,237.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 280.15330.90342.49380.50372.58391.10431.24378.40440.82469.99501.10534.26569.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 185.48234.73235.73265.58248.28264.67300.41243.72300.21320.08341.26363.85387.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 94.6696.17106.76114.92124.30126.43130.82134.68140.61149.91159.84170.41181.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 52.1341.3459.6468.0481.3831.2632.46283.5295.64101.97108.72115.91123.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 250.53269.04314.10580.29408.06461.06442.18368.95461.59492.14524.71559.43596.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -------------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 47.2958.1677.5279.6492.5993.0399.2385.8694.41100.66107.32114.42121.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -117.57-114.22-117.58-81.56-148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-153.18-163.32-174.13-185.65-197.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.67
Beta 0.830
Diluted Shares Outstanding 119.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.067
Total Debt 2,912.28
Total Equity 675.28
Total Capital 3,587.56
Debt Weighting 81.18
Equity Weighting 18.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,522.071,691.621,843.312,179.492,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,505.622,671.442,848.233,036.723,237.69
EBITDA 280.15330.90342.49380.50372.58391.10431.24378.40440.82469.99501.10534.26569.61
EBIT 185.48234.73235.73265.58248.28264.67300.41243.72300.21320.08341.26363.85387.92
Tax Rate -35.22%5.38%1.23%0.51%3.75%2.83%3.99%8.94%-1.07%-1.07%-1.07%-1.07%-1.07%
EBIAT 250.81222.11232.84264.23238.98257.17288.42221.93303.44323.52344.93367.75392.09
Depreciation 94.6696.17106.76114.92124.30126.43130.82134.68140.61149.91159.84170.41181.69
Accounts Receivable --18.51-45.06-266.19172.23-5318.8873.23-92.64-30.55-32.57-34.72-37.02
Inventories -------------
Accounts Payable -10.8719.372.1112.950.446.20-13.378.556.256.667.107.57
Capital Expenditure -117.57-114.22-117.58-81.56-148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-153.18-163.32-174.13-185.65-197.94
UFCF 227.91196.42196.3233.50400.05135.38327.09307.67206.77285.81304.73324.89346.40
WACC
PV UFCF 186.13244.10246.92249.77252.66
SUM PV UFCF 1,243.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 360.25
Terminal Value 25,732.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 19,782.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,025.45
Net Debt 2,628.76
Equity Value 18,396.69
Shares Outstanding 119.10
Equity Value Per Share 154.47