Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Geo Group Inc (GEO)
$ 5.67
-0.1 (-1.73%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,522.07 | 1,691.62 | 1,843.31 | 2,179.49 | 2,263.42 | 2,331.39 | 2,477.92 | 2,350.10 | 2,505.62 | 2,671.44 | 2,848.23 | 3,036.72 | 3,237.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 280.15 | 330.90 | 342.49 | 380.50 | 372.58 | 391.10 | 431.24 | 378.40 | 440.82 | 469.99 | 501.10 | 534.26 | 569.61 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBIT | 185.48 | 234.73 | 235.73 | 265.58 | 248.28 | 264.67 | 300.41 | 243.72 | 300.21 | 320.08 | 341.26 | 363.85 | 387.92 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 94.66 | 96.17 | 106.76 | 114.92 | 124.30 | 126.43 | 130.82 | 134.68 | 140.61 | 149.91 | 159.84 | 170.41 | 181.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 52.13 | 41.34 | 59.64 | 68.04 | 81.38 | 31.26 | 32.46 | 283.52 | 95.64 | 101.97 | 108.72 | 115.91 | 123.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 250.53 | 269.04 | 314.10 | 580.29 | 408.06 | 461.06 | 442.18 | 368.95 | 461.59 | 492.14 | 524.71 | 559.43 | 596.45 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 47.29 | 58.16 | 77.52 | 79.64 | 92.59 | 93.03 | 99.23 | 85.86 | 94.41 | 100.66 | 107.32 | 114.42 | 121.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -117.57 | -114.22 | -117.58 | -81.56 | -148.41 | -195.67 | -117.24 | -108.80 | -153.18 | -163.32 | -174.13 | -185.65 | -197.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.67 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.830 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 119.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 8.94 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.067 |
| Total Debt | 2,912.28 |
| Total Equity | 675.28 |
| Total Capital | 3,587.56 |
| Debt Weighting | 81.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 18.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,522.07 | 1,691.62 | 1,843.31 | 2,179.49 | 2,263.42 | 2,331.39 | 2,477.92 | 2,350.10 | 2,505.62 | 2,671.44 | 2,848.23 | 3,036.72 | 3,237.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 280.15 | 330.90 | 342.49 | 380.50 | 372.58 | 391.10 | 431.24 | 378.40 | 440.82 | 469.99 | 501.10 | 534.26 | 569.61 |
| EBIT | 185.48 | 234.73 | 235.73 | 265.58 | 248.28 | 264.67 | 300.41 | 243.72 | 300.21 | 320.08 | 341.26 | 363.85 | 387.92 |
| Tax Rate | -35.22% | 5.38% | 1.23% | 0.51% | 3.75% | 2.83% | 3.99% | 8.94% | -1.07% | -1.07% | -1.07% | -1.07% | -1.07% |
| EBIAT | 250.81 | 222.11 | 232.84 | 264.23 | 238.98 | 257.17 | 288.42 | 221.93 | 303.44 | 323.52 | 344.93 | 367.75 | 392.09 |
| Depreciation | 94.66 | 96.17 | 106.76 | 114.92 | 124.30 | 126.43 | 130.82 | 134.68 | 140.61 | 149.91 | 159.84 | 170.41 | 181.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -18.51 | -45.06 | -266.19 | 172.23 | -53 | 18.88 | 73.23 | -92.64 | -30.55 | -32.57 | -34.72 | -37.02 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 10.87 | 19.37 | 2.11 | 12.95 | 0.44 | 6.20 | -13.37 | 8.55 | 6.25 | 6.66 | 7.10 | 7.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | -117.57 | -114.22 | -117.58 | -81.56 | -148.41 | -195.67 | -117.24 | -108.80 | -153.18 | -163.32 | -174.13 | -185.65 | -197.94 |
| UFCF | 227.91 | 196.42 | 196.32 | 33.50 | 400.05 | 135.38 | 327.09 | 307.67 | 206.77 | 285.81 | 304.73 | 324.89 | 346.40 |
| WACC | |||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 186.13 | 244.10 | 246.92 | 249.77 | 252.66 | ||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,243.26 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 360.25 |
| Terminal Value | 25,732.23 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 19,782.19 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 21,025.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,628.76 |
| Equity Value | 18,396.69 |
| Shares Outstanding | 119.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 154.47 |