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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Guess? Inc.

Guess? Inc. (GES)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,658.612,569.812,417.672,184.612,190.512,363.782,609.612,608.312,607.002,605.702,604.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 369.28318.91227.74197.05122.23132.37115.34201.88201.78201.68201.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 279.69230.51142.64126.2753.0168.7946.97120.76120.70120.64120.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 89.5988.4085.1070.7869.2263.5968.3781.1281.0881.0481.00
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 336.05508.05483.53445.44397.58367.57211.12443.15442.93442.71442.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 316.91276.51216.14222.39225.62260.02322.03276.22276.08275.94275.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 369.81350.78319.13311.74367.35428.32468.95408.46408.26408.05407.85
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 191.15191.45159.81177.61209.63264.51286.54234.49234.37234.25234.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -99.70-75.55-71.56-83.89-90.69-84.62-108.04-93.90-93.85-93.81-93.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.11
Diluted Shares Outstanding 81.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 67.69
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.96
Total Debt 35.01
Total Equity 1,151.22
Total Capital 1,186.23
Debt Weighting 2.95
Equity Weighting 97.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,658.612,569.812,417.672,184.612,190.512,363.782,609.612,608.312,607.002,605.702,604.40
EBITDA 369.28318.91227.74197.05122.23132.37115.34201.88201.78201.68201.58
EBIT 279.69230.51142.64126.2753.0168.7946.97120.76120.70120.64120.58
Tax Rate 35.67%32.91%32.64%34.16%55.35%111.91%67.69%52.90%52.90%52.90%52.90%
EBIAT 179.91154.6696.0883.1423.67-8.1915.1856.8856.8556.8256.79
Depreciation 89.5988.4085.1070.7869.2263.5968.3781.1281.0881.0481.00
Accounts Receivable -40.3960.37-6.25-3.23-34.39-62.0145.810.140.140.14
Inventories -19.0331.657.39-55.60-60.97-40.6360.490.200.200.20
Accounts Payable -0.30-31.6417.8032.0254.8822.03-52.05-0.12-0.12-0.12
Capital Expenditure --24.15-3.9912.336.80-6.0623.41-14.14-0.05-0.05-0.05
UFCF 269.51278.64237.57185.1872.888.8426.35178.10138.10138.03137.96
WACC
PV UFCF 165.01123.16118.49114.00
SUM PV UFCF 1,389.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 143.48
Terminal Value -130,439.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -107,780.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -106,390.55
Net Debt -176.11
Equity Value -106,214.45
Shares Outstanding 81.59
Equity Value Per Share -1,301.82

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.89 (%) 44.29 Buy 49.74 Buy 57.99 Buy 71.94 Buy 100.67 Buy 193.94 Buy -1,408.67 Sell -123.69 Sell -56.70 Sell
5.39 (%) 41.77 Buy 46.24 Buy 52.74 Buy 63.08 Buy 82.07 Buy 128.38 Buy 412.19 Buy -234.53 Sell -77.87 Sell
4.89 (%) 39.63 Buy 43.35 Buy 48.58 Buy 56.52 Buy 69.94 Buy 97.56 Buy 187.26 Buy -1,353.95 Sell -118.20 Sell
4.39 (%) 37.79 Buy 40.92 Buy 45.22 Buy 51.47 Buy 61.42 Buy 79.68 Buy 124.23 Buy 397.22 Buy -224.84 Sell
3.89 (%) 36.20 Buy 38.87 Buy 42.44 Buy 47.48 Buy 55.11 Buy 68.03 Buy 94.60 Buy 180.90 Buy -1,301.82 Sell
3.39 (%) 34.80 Buy 37.10 Buy 40.11 Buy 44.25 Buy 50.27 Buy 59.84 Buy 77.41 Buy 120.27 Buy 382.95 Buy
2.89 (%) 33.58 Buy 35.57 Buy 38.14 Buy 41.58 Buy 46.43 Buy 53.78 Buy 66.20 Buy 91.78 Buy 174.83 Buy
2.39 (%) 32.49 Buy 34.23 Buy 36.44 Buy 39.34 Buy 43.32 Buy 49.12 Buy 58.33 Buy 75.24 Buy 116.50 Buy
1.89 (%) 31.52 Buy 33.05 Buy 34.97 Buy 37.45 Buy 40.76 Buy 45.43 Buy 52.50 Buy 64.46 Buy 89.09 Buy