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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Guess? Inc.

Guess? Inc. (GES)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,658.612,569.812,417.672,184.612,190.512,363.782,609.612,608.312,607.002,605.702,604.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 369.28318.91227.74197.05122.23132.37115.34224.84224.72224.61224.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 279.69230.51142.64126.2753.0168.7946.97142.67142.60142.53142.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 89.5988.4085.1070.7869.2263.5968.3782.1682.1282.0882.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 336.05508.05483.53445.44397.58367.57211.12426.98426.77426.55426.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 316.91276.51216.14222.39225.62260.02322.03281.18281.03280.89280.75
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 369.81350.78319.13311.74367.35428.32468.95401.94401.74401.54401.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 191.15191.45159.81177.61209.63264.51286.54227.71227.59227.48227.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -99.70-75.55-71.56-83.89-90.69-84.62-108.04-94.42-94.37-94.33-94.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.79
Diluted Shares Outstanding 80.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 67.69
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.96
Total Debt 35.01
Total Equity 1,586.09
Total Capital 1,621.10
Debt Weighting 2.16
Equity Weighting 97.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,658.612,569.812,417.672,184.612,190.512,363.782,609.612,608.312,607.002,605.702,604.40
EBITDA 369.28318.91227.74197.05122.23132.37115.34224.84224.72224.61224.50
EBIT 279.69230.51142.64126.2753.0168.7946.97142.67142.60142.53142.46
Tax Rate 35.67%32.91%32.64%34.16%55.35%111.91%67.69%52.90%52.90%52.90%52.90%
EBIAT 179.91154.6696.0883.1423.67-8.1915.1867.1967.1667.1367.09
Depreciation 89.5988.4085.1070.7869.2263.5968.3782.1682.1282.0882.04
Accounts Receivable -40.3960.37-6.25-3.23-34.39-62.0140.850.140.140.14
Inventories -19.0331.657.39-55.60-60.97-40.6367.010.200.200.20
Accounts Payable -0.30-31.6417.8032.0254.8822.03-58.83-0.11-0.11-0.11
Capital Expenditure --24.15-3.9912.336.80-6.0623.41-13.62-0.05-0.05-0.05
UFCF 269.51278.64237.57185.1872.888.8426.35184.77149.46149.39149.31
WACC
PV UFCF 171.12133.22128.14123.26
SUM PV UFCF 1,416.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 155.28
Terminal Value -172,538.40
Present Value of Terminal Value -142,429.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -141,012.35
Net Debt -176.11
Equity Value -140,836.25
Shares Outstanding 80.15
Equity Value Per Share -1,757.25