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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Gold Fields Limited American Depositary Shares

Gold Fields Limited American Depositary Shares (GFI)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,906.302,868.812,453.982,666.252,761.702,577.772,525.182,473.672,423.212,373.772,325.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 498.72230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09170.20166.73163.32159.99156.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -69.75230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09-323.73-317.12-310.66-304.32-298.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 568.47-----493.93483.85473.98464.31454.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 324.92457.86580.12717.22754.77860.20582.31570.43558.79547.39536.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 272.61226.64168.83170.11201.88153.12184.34180.58176.89173.29169.75
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 511.80521.26430.92462.33526.38501.38459.58450.21441.02432.03423.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 444.95498.60446.13563.38564.77515.55473.22463.57454.11444.85435.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -533.31------463.37-453.92-444.66-435.59-426.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.08
Diluted Shares Outstanding 730.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.91
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.75
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -5.80
Total Debt 86.30
Total Equity 4,442.80
Total Capital 4,529.10
Debt Weighting 1.91
Equity Weighting 98.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,906.302,868.812,453.982,666.252,761.702,577.772,525.182,473.672,423.212,373.772,325.35
EBITDA 498.72230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09170.20166.73163.32159.99156.73
EBIT -69.75230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09-323.73-317.12-310.66-304.32-298.11
Tax Rate -74.33%90.22%20,708.33%54.50%112.10%15.91%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%
EBIAT -121.6022.50-17,346.34193.73-28.55-274.1910,956.4610,732.9410,513.9910,299.5110,089.40
Depreciation 568.47-----493.93483.85473.98464.31454.84
Accounts Receivable -45.9857.80-1.27-31.7748.76-31.223.763.683.613.54
Inventories --9.4690.34-31.41-64.0525.0041.799.389.189.008.81
Accounts Payable -53.64-52.47117.241.39-49.21-42.33-9.65-9.46-9.26-9.07
Capital Expenditure --533.31------9.45-9.26-9.07-8.89
UFCF 446.87-420.65-17,250.66278.30-122.98-249.6411,418.6211,210.8210,982.1210,758.0910,538.62
WACC
PV UFCF 12,097.2812,583.0413,058.9513,552.8614,065.46
SUM PV UFCF 71,736.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -5.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,960.17
Terminal Value -114,049.60
Present Value of Terminal Value -152,217.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -80,480.91
Net Debt -773.90
Equity Value -79,707.01
Shares Outstanding 730.72
Equity Value Per Share -109.08