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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Gold Fields Limited American Depositary Shares

Gold Fields Limited American Depositary Shares (GFI)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,906.302,868.812,453.982,666.252,761.702,577.772,525.182,473.672,423.212,373.772,325.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 498.72230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09170.20166.73163.32159.99156.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -69.75230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09-323.73-317.12-310.66-304.32-298.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 568.47-----493.93483.85473.98464.31454.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 324.92717.20754.84458.06579.96860.20582.81570.92559.28547.87536.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 272.61170.12201.96226.63169.02153.12185.60181.81178.11174.47170.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 511.80462.17526.38521.52431.10501.38462.11452.68443.45434.40425.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 444.95563.43564.91498.59446.01515.55474.73465.05455.56446.27437.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -533.31------463.37-453.92-444.66-435.59-426.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding 821.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.91
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.75
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -5.80
Total Debt 86.30
Total Equity 4,773.11
Total Capital 4,859.41
Debt Weighting 1.78
Equity Weighting 98.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,906.302,868.812,453.982,666.252,761.702,577.772,525.182,473.672,423.212,373.772,325.35
EBITDA 498.72230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09170.20166.73163.32159.99156.73
EBIT -69.75230.0884.17425.80235.85-326.09-323.73-317.12-310.66-304.32-298.11
Tax Rate -74.33%90.22%20,708.33%54.50%112.10%15.91%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%3,484.46%
EBIAT -121.6022.50-17,346.34193.73-28.55-274.1910,956.4610,732.9410,513.9910,299.5110,089.40
Depreciation 568.47-----493.93483.85473.98464.31454.84
Accounts Receivable -102.49-31.84-24.6757.6215.90-32.483.793.713.633.56
Inventories -49.63-64.214.8690.42-70.2839.279.439.239.058.86
Accounts Payable -118.481.47-66.32-52.5769.54-40.82-9.68-9.49-9.29-9.10
Capital Expenditure --533.31------9.45-9.26-9.07-8.89
UFCF 446.87-240.20-17,440.92107.6166.91-259.0311,416.3511,210.8710,982.1710,758.1310,538.67
WACC
PV UFCF 12,097.4312,588.4213,067.3113,564.4114,080.43
SUM PV UFCF 71,899.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -5.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,960.21
Terminal Value -113,813.21
Present Value of Terminal Value -152,062.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -80,163.68
Net Debt -773.90
Equity Value -79,389.77
Shares Outstanding 821.53
Equity Value Per Share -96.64