Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Graham Holdings Company

Graham Holdings Company (GHC)

$410.47
-5.57 (-1.34%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,487.863,535.302,586.072,481.852,591.802,695.992,932.162,872.052,813.172,755.502,699.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 610.38632.4687.93396.35322.42358.30266.24367.62360.09352.70345.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 345.65407.97-80.69303.53209.16246.14144.56216.27211.83207.49203.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 264.73224.49168.6192.82113.26112.15121.68151.36148.25145.21142.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 569.571,503.211,316.831,627.601,469.291,198.91613.701,220.331,195.321,170.811,146.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 428.66571.30572.56615.00620.22582.33624.26583.31571.36559.64548.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2.7911.3132.0734.7560.6569.56108.7847.9646.9846.0245.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 505.74464.18427.99500.84526.39486.63507.56492.56482.46472.57462.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 223.92237.22136.8066.5160.3998.1393.54124.07121.53119.04116.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 410.47
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.93
Total Debt 512.83
Total Equity 2,186.57
Total Capital 2,268.75
Debt Weighting 3.62
Equity Weighting 96.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,487.863,535.302,586.072,481.852,591.802,695.992,932.162,872.052,813.172,755.502,699.01
EBITDA 610.38632.4687.93396.35322.42358.30266.24367.62360.09352.70345.47
EBIT 345.65407.97-80.69303.53209.16246.14144.56216.27211.83207.49203.24
Tax Rate 21.37%2.51%16.74%32.74%-65.24%16.17%23.12%6.77%6.77%6.77%6.77%
EBIAT 271.80397.75-67.18204.15345.62206.35111.13201.62197.49193.44189.47
Depreciation 264.73224.49168.6192.82113.26112.15121.68151.36148.25145.21142.24
Accounts Receivable --142.65-1.25-42.45-5.2137.88-41.9240.9411.9611.7111.47
Inventories --8.52-20.75-2.68-25.90-8.91-39.2360.820.980.960.94
Accounts Payable --41.56-36.1972.8425.56-39.7720.93-15.00-10.10-9.89-9.69
Capital Expenditure --13.30100.4270.296.12-37.754.60-30.542.542.492.44
UFCF 536.52416.22143.65394.98459.44269.96177.20409.21351.13343.93336.88
WACC
PV UFCF 390.13319.15298.04278.32
SUM PV UFCF 2,952.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 350.36
Terminal Value 39,365.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 31,006.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 33,958.77
Net Debt 498.95
Equity Value 33,459.82
Shares Outstanding 5.33
Equity Value Per Share 6,281.17