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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,202.0024,889.7232,637.8930,389.1426,107.3122,128.5627,311.0733,707.3241,601.5751,344.6663,369.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,878.4716,360.0223,447.0619,233.2915,917.6310,300.8416,017.9419,769.3424,399.3230,113.6437,166.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,533.4515,309.6722,350.4318,075.4614,630.548,871.3414,840.8318,316.5622,606.3027,900.6934,435.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 345.021,050.351,096.631,157.831,287.091,429.501,177.111,452.791,793.032,212.952,731.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,131.7410,127.6314,605.4611,894.3125,509.4630,088.2017,173.2021,195.1626,159.0732,285.5239,846.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,182.154,634.475,855.244,512.793,850.833,325.924,582.805,656.096,980.748,615.6310,633.42
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,697.101,386.361,955.011,586.31801.49814.331,761.562,174.122,683.303,311.734,087.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,255.74955.771,178.231,206.45814.55789.991,335.511,648.292,034.322,510.753,098.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -190.43-557.53-747.41-747.57-590.03-924.97-688.24-849.42-1,048.36-1,293.89-1,596.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 66.1
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,298.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.01
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.45
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.73
Total Debt 24,574.00
Total Equity 85,797.80
Total Capital 110,371.80
Debt Weighting 22.26
Equity Weighting 77.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,202.0024,889.7232,637.8930,389.1426,107.3122,128.5627,311.0733,707.3241,601.5751,344.6663,369.58
EBITDA 4,878.4716,360.0223,447.0619,233.2915,917.6310,300.8416,017.9419,769.3424,399.3230,113.6437,166.26
EBIT 4,533.4515,309.6722,350.4318,075.4614,630.548,871.3414,840.8318,316.5622,606.3027,900.6934,435.03
Tax Rate 27.24%18.77%16.40%21.09%65.75%30.01%29.88%29.88%29.88%29.88%29.88%
EBIAT 3,298.7112,435.3818,684.3414,262.825,010.746,209.0310,406.6912,843.9415,851.9919,564.5224,146.54
Depreciation 345.021,050.351,096.631,157.831,287.091,429.501,177.111,452.791,793.032,212.952,731.23
Accounts Receivable --2,452.32-1,220.771,342.45661.96524.91-1,256.87-1,073.29-1,324.66-1,634.89-2,017.78
Inventories -310.75-568.65368.70784.82-12.84-947.23-412.56-509.18-628.43-775.61
Accounts Payable --299.98222.4628.22-391.90-24.56545.52312.78386.03476.44588.02
Capital Expenditure -367.10189.880.17-157.55334.95-236.73161.19198.94245.53303.03
UFCF 3,643.7311,411.2718,403.8917,160.187,195.168,460.999,688.4813,284.8416,396.1520,236.1224,975.42
WACC
PV UFCF 8,815.7210,999.1912,352.3213,871.9215,578.46
SUM PV UFCF 82,653.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25,974.44
Terminal Value 440,244.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 274,603.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 357,256.99
Net Debt -5,514.20
Equity Value 362,771.19
Shares Outstanding 1,298.00
Equity Value Per Share 279.48