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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Alphabet Inc.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 55,519.0066,000.9974,990.3290,273.35110,855.67136,818.07163,935.41196,427.41235,359.33282,007.54337,901.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 19,409.4422,757.1424,716.8130,295.7434,110.2943,945.9654,328.2065,096.0477,998.0893,457.30111,980.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15,473.1517,780.6719,654.9624,148.1227,192.9034,915.9743,115.0151,660.4161,899.5074,167.9888,868.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,936.304,976.475,061.856,147.626,917.399,029.9911,213.1813,435.6316,098.5819,289.3223,112.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 58,716.8964,397.1673,063.0786,337.43101,876.36109,139.78155,214.05185,977.47222,838.21267,004.74319,925.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,982.9710,256.5512,005.9514,136.8118,335.5320,837.3926,000.1631,153.3937,327.9944,726.4053,591.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --487.44270.82753.821,108.231,000.011,198.211,435.691,720.252,061.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,825.264,494.674,356.942,040.183,137.224,378.187,590.219,094.5910,897.1413,056.9515,644.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,805.31-10,956.16-9,913.72-9,975.21-13,080.97-25,037.71-23,721.45-28,423.05-34,056.49-40,806.49-48,894.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,245.63
Diluted Shares Outstanding 695.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.96
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.55
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.88
Total Debt 4,012.00
Total Equity 866,293.31
Total Capital 870,305.31
Debt Weighting 0.46
Equity Weighting 99.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 55,519.0066,000.9974,990.3290,273.35110,855.67136,818.07163,935.41196,427.41235,359.33282,007.54337,901.44
EBITDA 19,409.4422,757.1424,716.8130,295.7434,110.2943,945.9654,328.2065,096.0477,998.0893,457.30111,980.54
EBIT 15,473.1517,780.6719,654.9624,148.1227,192.9034,915.9743,115.0151,660.4161,899.5074,167.9888,868.08
Tax Rate 17.70%20.47%16.81%19.35%53.44%11.96%23.29%23.29%23.29%23.29%23.29%
EBIAT 12,733.9414,140.5116,351.3019,476.4812,661.9530,738.6233,074.2339,629.5547,484.1256,895.4868,172.16
Depreciation 3,936.304,976.475,061.856,147.626,917.399,029.9911,213.1813,435.6316,098.5819,289.3223,112.46
Accounts Receivable --1,273.58-1,749.40-2,130.86-4,198.72-2,501.86-5,162.76-5,153.23-6,174.60-7,398.41-8,864.77
Inventories ---216.62-483.00-354.41108.22-198.20-237.48-284.55-340.95
Accounts Payable -669.41-137.73-2,316.761,097.041,240.963,212.031,504.381,802.552,159.812,587.89
Capital Expenditure -2,150.85-1,042.4461.483,105.7611,956.74-1,316.254,701.595,633.456,750.008,087.85
UFCF 16,670.2420,663.6618,483.5721,454.5919,100.4350,110.0441,128.6553,919.7264,606.6177,411.6492,754.63
WACC
PV UFCF 37,102.9843,880.9747,431.8351,270.0255,418.80
SUM PV UFCF 224,776.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 96,464.81
Terminal Value 1,408,245.47
Present Value of Terminal Value 841,394.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,066,171.10
Net Debt -105,127.78
Equity Value 1,171,298.88
Shares Outstanding 695.47
Equity Value Per Share 1,684.19